Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Didn't Get Through

Tuesday - 24 June 2008
11.08 a.m. - Malaysian Time

This morning at 9.45 a.m., I tried to post my forecast to this blog but it did not get through because there was interupption at the blogger's page. After posting my forecast , the detail simply was not there! It was lost. No trace of it what so ever.

Luckily it did not get through, my forecast was out of the way!

Hav a nice trading

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Any Tips For Monday?

Sunday - 22 June 2008
4.25 p.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO market for September's contract open at 3545 and closed at 3551. The highest was at 3557 and lowest was at 3525.

If you refer to one of my forecast on last Friday ( see # 7), the market open at 3545 ( open below 3555 ) and ended up a white bar but up to this moment I still am looking for a mechanism on how to enter the market if the market opens way too high or too low from the previous day's highest / lowest.

There was a not -very clear pattern of 2 bottoms ( you must know how to recognise between the 2 and 3 bottoms ) which the 2nd bottom occurred after 4.45 p.m. Since the 2nd bottom happened at this hour, so it is not adviseable to long here.

Tomorrow

The way I look at it, in a very short term, I would say the market is still bearish. In brief, here is my forecast for Monday's market ;

1) If the market opens between the level 3535 to 3545. Sell if the market moves up a bit ( I think those who have been following me may have the idea of how to go about it ). Careful if the market opens and starts to move up quickly and in a steep gradient, if this happens the market may go up further especially if it beats up the level between 3555 to 3563. If this happens a white bar may be formed at the end of the day. If the market opens and later beats down the level between 3514 to 3525, the market may fall further but may rebounce back.

2)If the market opens between the level 3545 to 3555 . Buy after the markets has beaten the level between 3555 to 3563.

3) If the market opens between the level 3525 to 3535. Sell after the market has beaten down the level between 3516 to 3525.

4)If the market opens between the level 3555 to 3581. Buy after the market has fallen a bit after opening or if the fall is so small, buy after 3 points above the opening level.

5)If the market opens above 3581. It is your call. I don't know what to say, man.

6)If the market opens between 3498 to 3525.It is your call and I am speecless but I think the market will end a white bar if the market opens and starts to move up without retracing back passing down the opening point.

7)You can also look for trendlines such as 3 tops ..etc. Don't forget your stop loss ...blah...blah

Well, good luck....and have a nice trading day!

Friday, June 20, 2008

Tips for Friday

Friday - 20 June 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( Crude Palm Oil ) for September's contract open at 3645 and closed at 3600. The highest was at 3650 and the lowest was at 3579.

Today

The market, in avery very short term, is said to be bearish. So , in brief, here is my forecast for today ;

1)If the market opens between the level 3590 to 3625. Sell after the market has moved up " a little bit " ( those who have been following my blog may have the idea of how to go about doing it ). Be careful if the market opens and immediately moves up in a fast and steep gradient, it could be a false alarm or the market may go up further and may end up a white bar today. For best result, the market opens and retraces down a bit before moves up nicely to the intended level. If the market beats up the level between 3636 to 3644, the market may go further up. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the upper end of the level between 3590 to 3653 level. If this happens ( opens at the upper end ) and beats up the level 3636 to 3644 and later the level between 3650 to 3656 the market may end up a white bar.If the market retraces down, after opening, and beats the level between 3570 to 3579, the market may retrace further down but it may bounce back in a short time.

2)If the market opens between the level between 3625 to 3635. Buy after the market beats up the level 3636 to 3644. The market may end up a white bar today.

3) If the market opens between the level 3579 to 3590. Sell after the market retraces down and beats the level between 3570 to 3579. Lock up for profits here once you see some , the market may rebounce in a short time.

4)If the market opens between the level 3555 to 3579. Sell after the market has moved up a bit or after the market has moved up a bit and falls at least 3 points passing the opening level.

5)If the market opens between the level 3635 to 3662. See #4 but do the opposite way except if the market opens and starts to move up, try to catch up ( long ) here. If the market manages to beat the level between 3650 to 3658, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.

6)If the market opens above 3662. It is your call, I don't know , man!

7) If the market opens below 3555. It is your call but I got a feeling that the market may end a white bar or at least a part of the trading day today.

8) Do not forget your stop loss, false alarm etc. If you are not sure, look for clear pattern of trendlines such as 3 tops/bottom, head and shoulder etc...

If still not sure contact your broker or better still do nothing today. If you do nothing, nothing will happen - for sure you are not going to waste any money today.

Have a nice trading moment

P/S Sorry Mike, my English can be terrible at times ( or most of the time ? )

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Thursday ?

Thursday - 19 June 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysia Time Zone

The Crude Palm Oil's ( CPO ) September contract open at 3665 and closed at 3640 yesterday. The highest was at 3680 and the lowest was at 3639.

If you look at one of my forecast yesterday ( #1) which indicated "If the market opens between the level 3650 to 3682. Sell after the market has moved up " a little bit " ( between 9 to 20 points ) from opening level.", the market yesterday infact open at 3665 and at about 11.00 a.m. shot up to the highest of the day ( at 3680 - 20 points after opening ) at noon before retracing down to almost the lowest when it closed at 6.00 p.m. Had a sell position been placed at this range ( between 9 to 20 points from opening level i.e from 3669 to 3680 ), a very good profits would have been able to be made indeed. Anyway , as the strategy focuses more on taking position after opening level ( see one of my previous postings ), I would probably do not recommend to place a position here especially at noon because the risk is higher here. Any way, some people say risk is every where in futures trading, even your life is full of risks!

Today

As usual, I am not in the position to make any forecast today. Those who have been following my blog may probably......blah..blah...

If you are not sure , please contact your broker but never contact....blah....blah...blah...

Have a nice trading day!!!!

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Wednesday's Tips

Wednesday - 18 June 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysia Time Zone

The CPO's ( Crude Palm Oil ) contract for September open at 3675 and closed at 3645 yesterday. The highest was at 3694 and the lowest was at 3639. Since I did not make any forecasting on yesterday's market, so I reserve any comment.

Today

So how about today ? I would rather prefer to say that the market, in a very very short term, is bearish. Anyway, as the strategy used in this market depends on the opening of the day, the forecast for the market direction today would be as follows;

1) If the market opens between the level 3650 to 3682. Sell after the market has moved up a "little bit" (between 9 to 21 points) from opening level. If the market beats up the level between 3695 to 3702, the market may go up further, at least in the half of the trading day. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the upper part of the level between 3650 to 3682. If the market , after opening, beats down the level between 3627 to 3635, the market may retrace further down but there is a posiblity that the market may rebounce back. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the lower part of the said level as above ( nearing the 3650 level )

2) If the market opens between the level 3682 to 3694. Buy after the market has beaten up the level 3695 to 3635.

3) If the market opens between the level 3639 to 3650. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 3626 to 3635.

4) If the market opens between the level between 3695 to 3720. Buy after the market has retraced down a bit and later beats up 3 points above the opening level. If the market does not fall after opening, buy at your will ( experience in trading is important here )

5) If the market opens between the level 3615 to 3639. Do as #4 but in the opposite way.

6) If the market opens between 3720 to 3730 and above. I am speechless, it is your call.

7) If the market opens between 3605 to 3614 and below. I do not know, it is your call but I think the market may end up a white bar today

8) Make sure to put your stop loss between 10 to 20 points should the market goes aginst you ( you better start praying too ). If the market opens and immediately moves up or down in a very fast and steep gradient, be careful it could be a false alarm, you can try on the second attempt ( this does not apply for #4 and #5 as above ).You could also look for trendlines such as head and shoulder etc... before placing your position.

Well, that's about it, as usual, this is my forecast, I may be right or wrong. I have been rights for so many times and I have wrongs also for many times. There are also other strategies which could give a better winning outcomes besides than the above strategy which cannot be revealed at this point of time due to some technical constrain

If you are not sure.....contact your broker but never your wife. If you loss, she will start nagging non-stop, contact her only when you make profits..........women.......

Have a nice trading day

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Friday's Analysis

Sunday 15 June 2008
2.55 p.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO's August contract open at 3660 and closed at 3690 last Friday. The highest was at 3712 and the lowest was at 3653.

Please refer to my forecast last Friday ( see #3 ) which stated that " If the market opens between the level 3656 to 3666. Buy after the market has beaten the level between 3666 to 3673 ". The market, in fact , open at 3660, fell a little bit, and immediately moved up beating the level 3666 but it was a false alarm as the market movement was quite fast ( I have mentioned this so many times in my privious forecasts ) . A second attempt occurred after that and beat again the level between 3666 to 3673 and later moved up to the highest of the day at 3712. Had a buy position been taken here, a maximum profit of about 40 points could have been made quite easily. I also mentioned in my previous forecast that " if the market moves and beats the level 3691 to 3697, the market may go up further and a white bar may be formed today " ( see #5 ). The market did go up and beat the said level but later retraced down " a lttle bit " before settling down at 3690 and a white bar was formed on that day.

Tomorrow ( Monday )

Due to some reasons, I am not able to do any forecasting for tomorrow. Those who have been following my blog ( are they out there? - If there is none, may be one day I may have to say good bye to this blog of mine ) may probably have the idea of how to go about entering the market.

Have a nice trading day!!!!!!

Friday, June 13, 2008

Friday's Where About

Friday - 13 June 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO futures market for August's contract open at 3682 and closed at 3623 yesterday. The highest was at 3691 and the lowest was at 3620.

Today

So how about today's direction? In a very short term, I could figure out that the market is bearish. As usual, the strategy is determined by the opening of the market as the opening is beleived to have indicated the performance of other commodities such as soybean oil, crude oil etc..In short ( not in details this time ), here are my forecast for today;

1) If the market opens between the level 3630 to 3655. Sell after the market has risen " a bit " after opening. If the market beats up the level between 3666 to 3673, the market may move further up and a white bar may be formed today or at least the market would go up ( enough to make some profits ) before retracing down. Later, if the market beats the level between 3686 to 3692, the market may go further up and a white may be formed today.More prominent if the market opens more towards to the upper end of the said level ( nearing the 3655 level ). If the market beats down the level between 3613 to 3620, the market may retrace further down. More prominent if the market opens more towards to the lower part of the level 3630.

2) If the market opens between the points 3620 to 3630. Sell after the market has beaten down the level between 3613 to 3620.

3) If the market opens between the level 3656 to 3666. Buy after the market has beaten the level between 3666 to 3673.

4) If the market opens between the level 3594 to 3620. Sell afterr the market has moved up a little bit from the opening.

5) If the market opens between the level 3666 to 3691. Buy after the market has retraced a bit from opening.If the market moves and beats the level 3691 to 3697, the market may go up further and a white bar may be formed today.

6) If the market opens above 3691 to 3715, the market may go further up.

7) If the market opens above 3715, it is your call. I think the market would be a black bar today or at least before lunch.

8) If the market opens below 3594, it is your call. I think it would end a white bar today at least before lunch.

9) If the market opens and moves up / down in a fast way and in a steep gradient, be careful it could be a false alarm, look for a second attempt. Another false alarm if the market moves up / down without retracing / moving up first, if you see this just stay away from the market, look for trendlines.Do not forget the stop loss etc.. If not very sure of the next movemet, lock up your profits immediately.You could also look for trendlines before taking your position such head and shoulder, 3 tops etc.. ( I seem to like these trendlines more than others )

If not sure, contact your commodity broker / dealer ...........never to contact your grandmother....Well, they seem not to bother on anything anymore.

Have a nice trading moment.