Thursday - 15 May 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysia Time Zone
10.05 a.m. - a little bit of updating
CPO contract for July open yesterday at 3565 and closed at 3558. The highest of the day was at 3612 and the lowest was at 3543. Since I did not make any forcast yesterday, so I have no comment on that.
Anyway, I made a forecast on last Tuesday's performance so I would like to "say" something on the matter.
The market on last Tuesday open at 3570 and closed at 3532. The highest was at 3570 and the lowest was at 3529. If you refer to my forecast on that Tuesday morning (see #3 ), the market open at 3570 and immediately retraced and beat down the level between 3550 to 3555. Later the market did retrace further down ( as forecasted ) except it did not go up again.. Had a sell been put here, say at 3550, a profit of 15 to 20 points could have been made. Anyway, the first beating (down ) of the level between 3550 to 3555 was a false alarm because , after opening, the market went down in a very fast way.
In a very short term, the market is still in bearish position.
1) If the market opens between the level 3553 to 3600. Sell after the market has moved up about 10 to 22 points from opening point. Be careful if the market opens and moved up in a very fast way, it could be a false alarm. Put a stop loss of about 10 to 15 points from the selling points. If you decide not to put a sell here, look for a clear formation of 3 tops/ head and shoulder before shorting ( it will be more safer ). If the pattern is not clear, just stay away.
Also be careful if the market beats up the level between 3613 to 3620. If this happens, the market may go up further and a white bar could be formed today or it will go up at to a certain level and may fall down again.So just be elert especially if the market opens more towards to the level nearing 3600 as the chances of going up and beat the level 3613 to 3620 is quite great ( for experience trader, can look to buy here ).
If the market opens and later retraces down beating the level between 3530 to 3542, the market may go down further and may fill the gap between last Tuesday's bar and last Friday's bar. If this happens, the market may be a black bar today. So just be careful especially if the market opens more towards the level 3552 as the chances of beating down the said level would be higher ( experience guy, can short here ).
2) If the market opens between 3600 to 3612, buy after the market passes the level between the level 3613 to 3620. Be careful of the first false alarm., stop loss etc...
3) If the market opens between 3543 to 3553, sell after the market retraces and beats down the 3530 to 3542.Be careful about the first false alarm., stop loss etc...
4) If the market opens between 3612 to 3665, buy after the market has retraces down a "little bit" ( experience is important here ) and moves up again beating the opening ( 3 points after opening point )
5) If the market opens between the level 3520 to 3543, do the opposite way of # 4 as above.
6) If the market opens not within the level that have been mentioned as above, it is your call.
7) Also look for clear paterrn of trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms etc whereever appropriate.
As I said earlier, there are other methods of trading which have a better chance of winning but it is quite hard to explain here ( as it needs charts and graphs ). May be some other time.
So that is my forecast, I may be right and I may be wrong, I have been wrongs and rights for many times... If in doubt... never contact your mother-in-law.
Have anice trading.