Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Last Day of 2008 - Middle East Tension, Oil Up!

Wednesday - 31st December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time


Sometimes you may wonder, how on earth that you still keep making losses after a stop loss position has been taken. In almost all the investment books that I have read, the authors , most of them, have suggested that ' if you make profits, just let them ride along' and a stop loss is a must as it acts as a mechanism to limit your losses. But in reality, after following their advise, it seems that you still make an endless losses.

So, what is next? Well, why not you practice a stop gain as well. It means, after placing your position, you must place another added position to sell/buy at a profitable levels. It may work wonders to you.

Today

The market , in long term, is still bullish and so is the very very short term;

1) If you look at the chart , there are 3 acending white bars that have been formed for the last 3 consecutive days. So if the market opens within the body of the yesterday's white bar especially if it opens more towards the lower part of yesterday's bar and then manages to beat down the levels between 1616 to 1620, the market may retrace further down ( remember the swing strategy ? - please refer to my previous posts ) and a black bar may be formed at the end of the day or may be in the early part of the day. So if this happens, just sell here!
2) If the market opens between 1644 to 1661. Buy after the market has dropped 6 points below the opening level. Be careful of the false alarm. Any way if the market manages to beat down the levels between 1616 to 1620, the market may retrace further down. ( see # 1 as above ). If the market manages to beat up the levels between 1672 to 1678, the market may go further up. If you see any profits, just lock them up!
3) If the market opens between 1662 to 1671. Buy after the market has moved up beating the levels between 1672 to 1678. ( see # 2 as above )
4) If the market opens between 1634 to 1644. Sell after the market has retraced beating the levels between 1616 to 1620. ( see # 1, as above )
5) If the market opens 1672 to 1695. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level. Any profits, just lock them up!
6) If the market opens above 1740. The market may go up further.
7) If the market opens between 1610 to 1633. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels 1616 to 1620, the market may retrace further down ( see #1 as above ).
8) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call.
9) Also look for trendlines...etc.
10) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )
11) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

If you are not sure , just contact your broker.....not a match making broker



Have a nice trading day.



HAPPY NEW YEAR everybody!!!

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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

X'mas Eve

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Wednesday - 24th December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for March's contract open at 1568 and closed at 1530 yesterday. The highest was at 1569 and the lowest was at 1530. A difference of 39 points.

The market open within the forecasted levels ( see #3 - sell after the market has gone up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening level), moved up 1 point at 10.31 a.m. and fell to 1560 at 10.32 a.m. but the upward movement of 1 point is not considered as " has gone up a bit" except if the market linggered at this levels for quite a time. The market then fell to 1557 , the lowest in the morning session, before settling at 1565 before lunch. In the afternoon, the market retraced further to finally settle at the lowest of the day, at 1530.
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Theoretically, you should have been able to make some profits had you decided to short at 5 points below the opening level. But in practise, I do not think the 1 point up is considered as ' has gone up a bit '.
The market did fall further after passing down the levels between 1561 to 1568 and a black bar was formed even though the market did not open above the 1568 level as suggested yesterday.



To the Christians, Merry Christmas.



Have a nice trading day..

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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Volume - Primary Importance ?

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Tuesday - 23rd December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.10 a.m. - A little bit of updating

Every time you contacted your broker ( dealer ) and asked for his/her opinion regarding the market, he/she would say that the market was not 'good' because the volume 'was not there'. Do you think the volume does really do the trick?

I do not really know for sure but as for me whenever I trade I seldom look at the volume. The most important thing to look at is the variance between the highest and the lowest of the prices. If the variance is high ( some say the volatility ), then it is good to trade. If not then it is not worth while to trade. The reason is simple, if you are to follow the volume concept which indicates that high volume means high activities and high activities mean high volatility, then there are times where the volume is large but the market do not move tally to the volume's movement. On the other hand, there are times where the volume is small but the price range is large. So the volume does not really act as a factor but more as an indicator.

Today

Should I do the forecasting for today ? Well......er... the volume is.....er.. tentatively, getting smaller every day due to the incoming of Christmas and end of the year holidays. Since, as I pointed earlier, that the volume is not the determinance, so my forecast for today is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 1578 to 1596 . Buy if the market manages to pass the levels between 1597 to 1604. If these levels are beaten up, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed at the end of the day or at least in the early part of the trading day today. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1561 to 1571, the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today.
2) If the market opens between 1597 to 1620. Buy after the market has fallen a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.
3) If the market opens between 1553 to 1577. Sell after the market has gone up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1561 to 1568 ( i.e. if the market opens higher than 1568, off course ), the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today.
4) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call or may be you can do some preparation for the coming Christmas.
5) If you are fimiliar with trendlines , look for 3 tops/bottoms etc...if not see bold letters as #4
6) As usual, please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
7) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's about it. If not sure just contact your dealer/broker or may be Santa !

Enjoy your trading moment!
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Thursday, December 18, 2008

Today is Thursday - What Is Your Expectation?

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Thursday – 18th December 2008

8.00 a.m. – Malaysian Time

8.30 a.m. - A little bit of updating

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The CPO ( crude palm oil) futures for March’s contract open at 1561 and closed at 1580 yesterday. The highest was at 1586 and the lowest was at 1548. A difference of 38 points.


The market open at 1561, moved up a bit ( 1 point only ) and then fell to 1555. The market then linggered between 1555 to 1560, which showed that the fall was not a false alarm, for about 6 minutes before shooting up to 1583. The market then started to retrace to settle at 1563 just before lunch. In the afternoon, the market fell to the lowest of the day and then moved up again to the highest of the day before finally settling at 1580.


If a buy position had been taken at this linggering situation, say at 1556, ( see my forecast at #1 yesterday – buy after the market has dropped about 5 to 9 points after opening - the market in fact , dropped 6 points ) a profit of between 15 to 20 points could have been made. The market, did also manage to beat up the levels between 1570 to 1577 ( see also # 1) and it ended a white bar yesterday.


Have a nice trading day!


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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

What A Wonderful Day - Sunny Day Today?



Wednesday - 17th December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time


The Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) for March's contract open at 1550 and closed at 1545 yesterday. The highest was at 1570 and the lowest was at 1545. It was a black bar with 41 points movement.
The movement of the market, after opening, was on the position of uncertainty. There was no clear direction even though the market open lower than the lowest of the day before. Will the market be following north or may be south today?

Today

The market is still in the bearish situation but on the very very short term, I would foresee the market is bullish. My forecast for today are as follows;
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1) If the market opens between 1540 to 1570. Buy after the market has dropped about 5 to 9 points after opening and make sure that these 5 to 9 points dropping do not beat the levels between 1535 to 1540. If the market manages to beat down these levels, the market may fall further. The market is expected to make another fall if the levels between 1524 to 1529 are broken down. On the other hand , if the market beats the levels between 1570 to 1577, the market may move further up especially if the market opens more towards the upper end of the 1540 to 1570 levels. Any profits, just lock them up. Do not forget your stop loss and false alarm.

2) If the market opens between 1571 to 1595. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.

3) If the market opens between 1515 to 1540. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and later fall down passing 5 points below the opening level.

4) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call...or may be you better forget it and go to sleep!!!!

5) Trendlines? Ok if you know how to...

6) Please refer to # 9 ( Thusday's Tips dated 26th June)

7) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

Well, that's about it. Just cross the figures this time!

Enjoy your trading day even if you are not smiling.

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Bush Was Thrown With Smelly Shoes - Bad Omen For Market?


Tuesday – 16th December 2008

7.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time


The crude palm oil (CPO) futures for February’s contract open at 1625 and

closed at 1576 yesterday. The highest was at 1630 and the lowest was at

1570. A difference of 60 points.

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The market open at 1625 and immediately moved up to 1630, the highest of

the day,and then retraced to 1598 before settling at 1603 before lunch. In

the afternoon, themarket went up to 1618 before falling down to the lowest

of the day at 1570 and finally closed at 1576. The market did not open

within the forecasted level of points, so nothing much to say here.


One thing to mention here is that you must not depend on one method of strategy only when it comes to placing

and existing a position, in fact you have to have multiple method of strategies and you must make sure that your

multiple strategies do not over lapse each other or else you may be in the position of confusion. So just do not

confuse yourself (may be you can confuse other people). The purpose of having more than one strategy is that if

the first strategy cannot be applied you could still have others to depend on. So a day of trading is not wasted.


Today


Since the new active month for CPO futures is March’s contract which starts today, I think I better wait for

tomorrow to do my next forecasting.


Have a nice trading day.

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Monday, December 15, 2008

Can Obama Rule in The World of White Men?




Monday - 15th December 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for February's contract open at 1650 and closed at 1581 last Friday. The highest was also at 1650 and the lowest was at 1567.
The market open within the forecasted points but did not react to what have been put forward on last Friday. Anyway the market mananged to beat down the levels between 1615 to 1622 ( see # 2) but not able to go down further after beating the levels between 1568 to 1575. ( Swing Strategy - see #7). It seemed that the Swing Strategy that I have mentioned earlier did not work well this time probably because the opening was too high up, in fact the opening was higher than the closing of the white bar on the day before ( Thursday).

Today

The market in long term is still bearish, so is the very very short term, so my forecast for today's day trading activity are as follows;

1) If the market opens between the levels 1567 to 1596. Sell after the market has moved up 8 points from the opening. Anyway if the market manages to beat the levels between 1597 to 1603, the market may go up further . Make sure that these 8 points 'distance' do not fall on to these levels after the market opens. Be careful of the false alarm and do not forget your stop loss. If the market is able to beat down the levels between 1560 to 1567, the market may fall further down.

2) If the market opens between the levels 1542 to 1567. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening.

3) If the market opens between the levels 1597 to 1620. Buy after the market has retraced a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.

4) If the market opens between 1640 to 1650. Buy after the market has moved up beating the levels between 1651 to 1658. If you see any profits , just lock them up!

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call. I don't know man......

6) Hey..what about trendlines? Have you forgotten them? Well, if you are familiar with trendlines , look for 3 Tops/bottoms or Head and shoulder/Inverted Head and Sholuder, etc.... If not, just stay away, do not waste your time and money. Money cannot be plugged from tree..you know...except, well .. palm oil's tree ( oil palm's tree? - see pivture above ), off course...

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)

8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

Well, that's about it. If not sure, do contact your dealer/broker. The forecast as above is just a matter of opinion from me...

Have a nice trading day!

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Friday, December 12, 2008

Malaysia and Indonesia Joint Meeting On Palm Oil


Friday – 12th December 2008

8.00 a.m. – Malaysia Time


Is it true to say that, recently, the world’s equity markets have shown some positive indicators regarding the direction ? Will the market be going up again? How about the next year’s performance? Too early to say, don’t you think so?


Yesterday was the day when Malaysia and Indonesia had had a meeting regarding the palm oil. Indonesia and Malaysia constitute about 80% of the world’s palm oil production.Will the market respond positively to this meeting?


Today


In short term, the market is bullish so is the very very short term.My forecast is as follows;


1) If the market opens between 1646 to 1656. Buy after the market has moved up passing the levels between 1660 to 1667. The market may go up further if the levels between 1700 to 1708 are broken. Be careful of false alarm and remember your stop loss.


2) If the market opens between 1626 to 1636. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1615 to 1622. If this happens, the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.


3) If the market opens between 1600 to 1625. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1568 to 1575 ( Swing strategy ), the market may fall further.


4) If the market opens between 1636 to 1646. Buy after the market has moved up passing the levels between 1660 to 1667. The market may go up further if the levels between 1700 to 1708 are broken. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 1636 to 1646 levels. On the other hand, sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1615 to 1622. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the lower side of the 1636 to 1646 levels.


5) If the market opens between 1658 to 1681. It is your call but I think the market may go up but may reverse if the level 1700 is not broken. Any way, if the market manages to beat the levels between 1700 to 1708, the market may set to go further up.


6) If the market opens above 1700. The market may go up further.


7) If the market opens between 1580 to 1624. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1568 to 1575.( Swing strategy )


8) If the market opens between 1556 to 1580. Sell after the market has gone up a bit and then falls passing 5 points below the opening point.


9) If the market opens other than the above. It is your call, I would just be blank.

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10) Please refer to # 9 ( see Thursday’s Tip dated 26th June 2008 )


11) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( see Tuesday’s Tips dated 1st July 2008)


Well, that’s about it , Mike. If you are not sure, just contact your broker/dealer but not your dentist. He has a bad smell!!!


Have a nice trading day!


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Thursday, November 27, 2008

Market Low In The West, High On The Asia

Thursday - 27th November 2008

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The Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures for February's contract open at 1525 and closed at 1598. It closed higher yesterday. The highest was at 1604 and the lowest was at 1496.
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The market open at 1525 and 10 minutes later , it fell to the lowest of the day at 1496 at about 10.40 a.m. The market then shot up to the highest of the day before finally settling at 1598. The fall, after opening, was ' slow and steady ' and it almost indicated that the market was about to fall further ( did not look like a false alarm ) but the support at 1496 had made the market being pushed up higher all through the day.
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The market open within the forecasted points but after opening the market only managed to go up 2 points above the opening level ( not 7 points as suggrested earlier) so it was not as what it had suggested in the forecast. So, theoritically there was ' nothing happen '! No loss and no gain!
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Yesterday I did mention that if the market were to move and beat up the level between 1552 to 1557, the market would go further up but it might be short lived. The market did go up but it was not short lived, it kept going up. The same thing happen to ' the market may go down further if the market manages to beat down the levels between 1505 to 1511 '. The market did beat down these levels but did not go further down but instead it was a short lived! It ( the fall) happened only in the early part of the trading day. Oh, my,my,my.......
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Today
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There will be no forecast for today and next week because today my family and I are going to Sarawak ( and may be Sabah ) for a vacation to take advantage of these school holidays. I am going to forget all about CPO futures for a while ( I hope the places where I am going to stay has no internet facilities - my wife suggested me not to bring the laptop at all ! !! ) and just to enjoy myself . After being glued at the computer's screen almost every day, I think I deserve this, I must reward ( though a small one ) myself and my family!








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So, have a nice trading day every body!!!
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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Global Share Markets Rebound?


Wednesday - 26th November 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) futures for January's contract open at 1530 and closed at 1520 yesterday. The highest was at 1550 and the lowest was at 1511.

The market open at 1530, moved down to 1514 at about 11.oo a.m. and then moved up to the highest of the day and settled at 1550 before lunch. Anyway the market started to fall down all the way through the afternoon session to finally settle at 1520. If you look at my forecast yesterday, the market did not open within the forecasted areas, so no money was made yesterday. Anyway if you look at #4 on yesterday's forecast, the market did go up in the morning session but it heppened the other way round in the afternoon. ( It says the market may go up if the market open above 1530 but the market open at exactly at 1530, so how? ). As for trendlines, there was no clear pattern what so ever.

Today

My forecast for today is as follows ; The market in short term is bullish but the very very short term is still bearish.

1) If the market opens between 1520 to 1536. Sell after the market has moved up 7 points above the opening level . Make sure that these 7 points distance do not pass either the level 1547 or 1511, just after opening. If the market manages to beat up the level between 1552 to 1557, the market may go up further but it may be short lived. So any profits, just lock them up. On the other hand, if the market manages to beat down the level between 1505 to 1511, the market may go down further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.
2) If the market opens between 1536 to 1547. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 1552 to 1557. See the italic words as above
3) If the market opens between 1511 to 1520. Sell after the market has moved down the level between 1505 to 1511. The market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.
4) If the market opens between 1485 to 1510. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level.
5) If the market opens other than the above, it is up to you. As for me...... I do not know.
6) Trendlines......make sure of the clear pattern first. If not sure, just stay away!!!!!
7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )
8) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

If not sure........it is up to you, Mike....

Hav a nais treding dey!!!!
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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Crude Oil & Soya Up Yesterday

Tuesday - 25th November 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time
8.55 a.m. - a little bit of updating

Can you be really sure that if you follow the trend, the chances of winning the trade is better? Well, it is hard to say. Sometimes you may loose a lot if you do that. I give an example; the market is now on the way down and you expect the market to go further down and so you put a short and suddenly the market go against you and it goes passing your stop loss. You do it again at a different level and again it goes aginst you, so you loss! Or after placing the short, the market goes against you and after passing your stop loss, then only the market starts to fall down. By this time, you have already loss quite a lot!


So, let's get back to my forecast for today:

Today

The market , in short term, is still bullish, so is the very very short term.

1) If the market opens between 1493 to 1503. Buy after the market has passed the level between 1504 to 1510. Any profits, just lock them up, man.
2) If the market opens between 1468 to 1478. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1460 to 1467. If this happens, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the day especially if the market manages to pass down the level between 1445 to 1451.
3) If the market opens between 1443 to 1467. Sell after the has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening level.
4) If the market opens above 1530. The market may go up further
5) If the market opens below 1375. The market may fall further.
6) Other than the above. It is your call, I just do not know what to say.
7) Look for trendlines - a clear pattern, off course.
8) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June 2008 )
9) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July 2008)

That's about it. If not sure , do contact your broker ( CPO futures dealer) or may be your Yoga teacher!

Have a nice trading day.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Wall Street Falls Lowest Since 2003?

Thursday - 20th November 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude Palm Oil ) futures for February's contract open at 1440 and closed at 1480 yesterday. The highest was at 1493 and the lowest was at 1438. Sorry Mike, there was a litlle bit of a mistake yesterday, the quotation prices for the CPO futures yesterday was supposed to be for February's contract not January's.

The market open at 1440 and for about 5 minutes, the market lingered between 1438 to 1450 levels. The market fell a bit and then shot up to the highest of the day at 1493 before settling down at 1480 at the end of the day. If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see #1), at this point of time ( 5 minutes after opening ), the market had already past over the level 1446 and should you have placed a buy position , say at 1454 with a stop loss of between 15 to 20 points, you might had made a profit of , at least, 10 points to 35 points per lot. As for trendlines, there was quite a clear pattern of 3 tops ( 4 tops to be precised) at about 5.00 p.m. yesterday ( was it too late to trade at this hour? )

Today

As usual, due to some reasons, no forecast for today.

Have a nice trading day!!
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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Toll's Rate Has Gone Down - Will The Market Be So?

Wednesday - 9th November 2008
9.43 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for January'c contract open at 1437 and closed at 1436 yesterday. The highest was at 1446 and the lowest was at 1400. Just 1 point down .
Since there was no forecast on yesterday's market. So just let it be.

Today

There is something wrong with my streamyx, I have not been able to access to my computer for the last two days. Complaint has already been made upstairs, up to this date there is nothing to happen yet. So currently I am using my dial-up facility. Tm.net, oh, tm.net...

My forecast ;

1) If the market opens between 1400 to 1446. There have been 6 black bars for the past 6 days. Remember the swing strategy?( refer to my previous posts - I can't remember its where about ). So, if today the market opens within these levels and beats up the levels between 1447 to 1454, just buy here! The market may go up further and a white bar may be formed today or at least at the early part of the trading day. Don't forget your stop loss. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper parts of the1400 to 1446 levels.
2) If the market opens between 1410 to 1435. Buy after the market has retraced 8 points after opening hour. A stop loss of 15 to 20 points. After opening make sure the 8 points retracement does go down beyond the levels between 1393 to 1399. Be careful of the false alarm. If the market manages to beat up the level 1447 to 1454, see the above ( #1). If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1393 to 1399, the market may fall further down.
3) If the market opens between 1436 to 1446. Buy after the market has beaten up the levels between 1447 to 1454 ( see # 1 as above )
4) If the market opens between 1447 to 1470. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and moved up 6 points above the opening hour.
5) If the market opens between 1375 to 1399. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points down below the opening level
6) Other than the above, I simply just don't know, Mike! It is your call
7) If you r fimiliar with trendlines, look for a clear pattern first
8) Plese refer to # 9 ( Wednesday's Tips dated 26 Jun )
9) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Thurday's Tips dated 1st July )

If you are not sure, just consult your broker. ( licenced broker off course!) Or just call Osama but not Obama!

Have a nice trading day today!

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Monday, November 10, 2008

Exchange of Chairs At Seremban's Umno Meeting - Laughing Stock?









The market is going up!



Monday - 10th November 2008.
8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time


Last Friday the CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for January contract open at 1580 and closed at 1609. The highest was at 1640 and the lowest was at 1560.
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The market open at 1580 and immediately fell to 1560 and after two minutes, the market then moved up to 1570 and started to linger between 1570 to 1579 for about 6 to 7 minutes before shooting up to settle at 1622 before lunch.
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When the market open, it was within the 8 to 17 points retracement ( see # 1 on last Friday's forecast) and when it fell to 1560 in a very fast way, it could have indicated that the the market might have triggered the false alarm but when the market was lingering between 1570 to 1579, the market might not be so anymore. By referring to my forecast ( see # 1), had a buy position been placed between 1570 to 1579 ( "buy after the market has retraced 8 to 17 points from the opening level ), a profit of between, at least 20 to 60 points could have been made. The market also did go up further after the level between 1608 to 1615 ( see # 1) had been broken. As for the trendlines, there was no pattern of what so ever that has been recognised.
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Today
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As usual, due to some technical reasons, I am not able to do any forecasting today and also for this week. I would be back, probably next week.
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If you have any inquiries, just contact your broker, do not contact .....er..er..well.....MR. BUSH as he is leaving the office in two month's time.
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Have nice trading day!!!!
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Friday, November 7, 2008

Friday - Last Day of The Week


Friday - 7th November 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for January's contract open at 1575 and closed at 1599 yesterday. The highest was at 1607 and the lowest was at 1548.

Since the market open not within the forecasted analysis, so I definiately could say that there was no money acquired yesterday. I did forecast that if the market were to open below 1599, the market would fall further but that did not happen. Anyway, there was a very clear pattern of 3 tops which the 3rd top occurred at 1607.


Today

In the long run, the market is still bearish but the very short term, I would say that the market is bullish. My forecast for today;

1) If the market opens between 1573 to 1597 - Buy after the market has retraced 8 to 17 points from the opening level. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper end of the 1573 to 1597 levels. As usual, be careful of false alarm and do not forget your stop loss. If the market manages to beat the level between 1608 to 1615, the market may go further up. If the market manages to bet down the level between 1555 to 1562, the market may fall further. After opening, make sure your 8 to 17 points retracement does not pass down the level 1562.

2) If the market opens between 1597 to 1607 - Buy after the market has moved up passing the level between 1608 to 1615.

3) If the market opens between 1563 to 1573. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1555 to 1562

4) If the market opens between 1608 to 1632 - Buy after the market has retraced a 'bit' and then moves up passing 5 points above the opening level.

5) If the market opens between 1548 to 1562 - Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening level. The market may fall down further if it manages to beat down the level between 1533 to 1541.

6) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call.

7) If the market opens below 1540 - It is again your call. Any way, I would say the market may retrace further down and a black bar may occur today or at least in the early part of the trading day. Till this moment I still do not have the mechanism on how to enter the market, so very bad of me!!!!!

8) Also look for trendlines.....if not sure..just stay awayyyyyyyy

9) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 27th June)

10) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

Well, have a nice trading day.
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Thursday, November 6, 2008

Market Up - Obama's Factor?

Thursday - 6th November 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

Yesterday, due to some reasons , I was not able to comment on the market and also on my forecast on last Tuesday's performance. Anyway, if you look at my last forecast, the market open at 1589, moved up to 1599 at 10.42 a.m., fell down to 1575 at 10.43 and shot up again to 1610 before settling down at 1600 before lunch. If a sell had been made at 1585 ( 5 points below the opening level ) , you would have ended up poorer by at least 15 points. Well, that is it, you can't win them all.

Today

In long run, the market is still bearish, so is the very short term. My forecast for today is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 1636 to 1670. Sell after the market has moved up between 9 to 17 points after opening. For the best result, let the market falls a bit first before it moves up to the intended level. Stop loss between 15 to 20 points. Be careful of the false alarm. If the market manages to beat the level between 1681 to 1687, the market may go further up especially if it opens more towards the upper part of level 1635 to 1670. Any profits, just lock them up quickly. If the market falls beating down the level between 1619 to 1625, the market may fall further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 1636 to 1670 levels and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.
2) If the market opens between 1670 to 1680. Buy after the market has moved up beating the level between 1681 to 1687.
3) If the market opens between 1626 to 1635. Sell after the market has beaten the level between 1620 to 1625.
4) If the market opens between 1680 to 1707. Buy after the market has fallen a bit and then moved up 5 points above the opening level.
5) If the market opens between 1600 to 1625. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level.
6) If the market opens below 1599. It is your call but I think the market will fall further.
7) If the market opens other than the above. I have no idea, it is your call. If I were you...... I don't know.
8) Don't forget the trendlines....
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
10) Also #9 and #10 ( Thuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's about it. Just cross your finger. If not sure , just contact your commodity broker or .... may be you can call Obama...

Have a nice trading day.
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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Obama Is Set To Win?

4th November 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for January contract open at 1599 and closed at 1666 yesterday. The highest was at 1666 and the lowest was at 1593.

Today

In the long run, the market is still bearish but the vey very short term is bullish. So the forecast is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 1612 to 1656. Buy after the market has retraced 10 points after the opening. As usual, be careful of the false alarm. Stop loss between 10 to 20 points. If the market beats up the level between 1667 to 1674, the market may go further up. If any profits, just lock them up. If the market is to beat down the level between 1595 to 1601, the market may go down further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 1612 to 1656's level. Make sure that the opening is 10 points higher than the level 1602.
2) If the market opens between 1656 to 1666. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 1667 to 1674.
3) If the market opens between 1602 to 1612. Sell after the market has retraced and passed down the level between 1595 to 1601.
4) If the market opens between 1577 to 1601. Sell after the market has moved up a 'bit' and then retraces 5 to 9 points below the opening level.
5) If the market opens between 1667 to 1691. Buy after the market has retraced a 'bit' and then moves up 5 to 9 points above the opening level.
6) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call, I still don't know how to go about entering the market at this point of time.
7) You can also look for trendlines.....if you like
8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
9) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

That's about it, guys. If you are in doubts, do contact your broker, never to contact your brother-in-laws. They are nothing but .......@#!#&*&*^% (why this brownish color just pop up? )

Have a nice trading day!!!!
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

US Economy Is Pushing Up Again?

Wednesday - 22nd October 2008
8.35 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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The CPO ( Crude Palm Oil ) futures for January contract open at 1695 and closed at 1652 yesterday ( My standard openings for almost everyday). The highest was at 1714 and the lowest was at 1639.
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Within 6 minutes after opening, the market kept mingling between the levels 1690 and 1705. At about 10.37 a.m., the market shot up to the highest of the day at 1714 and then moved down constantly to the lowest of the day before settling at 1652.
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If you refer to my forecast yesterday ( see #1), the market's movement was in a 'gentle' way and it clearly showed that there was no false alarm. ( well, you have to have this skill to recognise the false alarm). Had you put a short at 1707 ( 12 points above the opening point, see # 1), you would have made at least 20 to 30 points.The maximum you could have made would be about 65 points. Was it possible to achieve this 65 points? I don't know you figure it yourself.
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As for trendlines, there was a clear pattern of 3 bottoms but the occurence was at about 5.30 p.m., so it was quite late to exercise any day trade activity.
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Today
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As usual, no forecast for today and also for next week. My forecast would be back again on the week after next week.
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Have a nice trading day today and smile always.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Rainy Days in KL - Especially in The evening

Tuesday - 21st October 2008
8.58 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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The CPO ( Crude Palm Oil ) futures for January contract open at 1699 and closed at 1677 yesterday. The highest was at 1727 and the lowest was at 1660.
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If you look at the last 3 decending black bars ( from Tuesday to Thursday last week ) you should realise that these bars had the potentiallity of the 'swing strategy' to be applied upon but it did not happen. Do you know why? I think I better not answer that, you can figure it out yourself, can't you?
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Today
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In the long run, the market is still bearish, so is the very very short term;
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1) If the market opens between 1670 to 1717. Sell after the market has moved up 12 points above the opening level. Be careful of the false alarm, etc. If the market manages to beat up the level between 1727 to 1735, the market may move further up especially if it opens more towards to these levels. If see any profits, just lock them up! If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1654 to 1660, the market may go further down especially if it opens more towards to these levels.
2) If the market opens between 1717 to 1727. Buy after the market has beaten the levels between 1727 to 1735. See bold letters as at #1.
3) If the market opens between 1660 to 1670. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1653 to 1660.
4) If the market opens betweeen 1637 to 1660. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening point.
5) If the market opens between 1727 to 1750. Buy after the market has moved down a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.
6) If the market opens other than the above, it is up to you, I think I am going to sleep!
7) Also look for trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms etc...., if you like.
8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
9) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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That's about it. If not sure , do contact your broker, never to contact your ice- cream man or else he would have been an ice cream guy!
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Have a nice trading!
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Thursday, October 9, 2008

Bad or Good News? - Prime Minister Is To Resign This March

Thursday - 9th October 2008
8.25 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December contract open at 1880 and closed at 1775 yesterday. The highest was at 1897 and the lowest was at 1755. It was a black bar.
The market open at 10.30 a.m. and immediately it fell to 1860 at 10.31 a.m. At 10.34 a.m., the market fell further to 1850 and then started to climb up back again to 1862 at about 10.40 a.m.The market then moved up further to the highest of the day before settling at 1885 before lunch.After lunch, the market continued its downwards movement and finally settled at 1775. This has clearly shown that the fall of the market, just after opening, was not a false alarm due to its steadiness in the price movement and the time taken. If you look at my forecast yesterday ( # 1 and # 2), you would be at the cross road here ; either to follow the # 1 forecast or the # 2 forecast.
If you were to follow the # 1 ( long at ,say, 1867 with 20 points stop loss), you would probably have made about 20 to 29 points of profit. If you were to follow the # 2 forecast, you would have just remainded the same because the market did not even touch the 1898 level.
The market also managed to fall further after the level between 1800 to 1806 ( see # 1) had been able to be broken through.
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Today
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As usual, no forecast for today. Those who have been following my blog, may probably have the idea of how to enter the market.
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Have a nice trading day.
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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

World Share Market Uncertainty - CPO?

Wednesday - 8th Oct 2008
9.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December contract open at 1820 and closed at 1850. The highest was at 1892 and the lowest was at 1801.
The market open not within the forecasted levels but it managed to beat up the level between 1885 to 1890. Any way the market did not go up further after breaching these levels probably because it did not open within the stipulated forecast or may be because the market open a little below than the middle of yesterday's bar.
There was quite a clear pattern of 3 tops trendline which occurred at about 4.10 p.m. at 1860. The market retraced further to 1811 before rebounded back to settle at 1850. If you are not familiar with this trendline, just stay far away.
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Today
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In short term, the market is still bearish but the very very short term is now bullish. My forecast ;
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1) If the market opens between 1822 to 1880. Buy after the market has fallen about 13 points after opening. As usual, be careful of the false alarm. Stop loss of about 10 to 20 points. If the market manages to pass down the level between 1800 to 1806, the market may go down further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 1822 to 1880 range. Make sure your 13 points down after opening does not break these levels. If it opens at this point, just stay away for a while.On the other hand, the market may go further up if the level between 1898 to 1905 are broken especially if the market opens more towards the upper end of the 1822 to 1880 levels.
2) If the market opens between 1880 to 1892. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 1898 to 1905, the market may go further up and a white may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.
3) If the market opens between 1891 to 1821. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1800 to 1806.
4) If the market opens between 1892 to 1918. Buy after the market has fallen a bit and passed up 5 points above the opening level.
5) If the market opens between 1865 to 1890. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraced down 5 points below the opening point.
6) If you are familiar with trendlines, look for 3 tops/bottoms etc. If not, just forget it
7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )
8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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That's about it. I got to be hurry, the market is about to open!!!!!
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Enjoy your trading moment!!!!
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Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Crude Oil Continued Dropping - CPO?

Tuesday - 7th October 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December contract open at 1850 and closed at 1820. The highest was at 1880 and the lowest was at 1775.It was a black bar yesterday.
Since the market open not within the forecasted levels, so there are nothing to comment today. Anyway, there was a pattern of 3 bottoms which occurred just after the lunch break but the pattern was not that very " clear".
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Today
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In brief, the market in short term is still bearish, so is the very very short term. The forecast for today is as follows ;
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1) If the market opens between 1840 to 1857. Buy after the market has passed the level between 1862 to 1868. Do not forget your stop loss.If the market manages to beat the level between 1885 to 1890, the market may go up further. If you spot any profits, just lock them up, the market may go against you.
2) If the market opens between 1775 to 1790. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1763 to 1770. Again your stop loss.The market may retrace further if these levels are broken, if you see any profits, just lock them up.
3) If the market opens between 1861 to 1880. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moved up 5 points above the opening level.See the bold letters as at # 1 above.
4) If the market opens between 1750 to 1770. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls passing down 5 points below the opening point.
5) Other than the above, it is your call, I am just blank!!
6) Also look for trendlines....
7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )
8) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)
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That's it.
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Have a nice trading day!
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Monday, October 6, 2008

After A Week Off - Still Holiday Mood

Monday - 6th October 2008
10.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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The CPO ( crude palm oil) futures for December contract for the last week's performance ( last week the market open only for 3 days) showed a bearish black bar. If you refer to my forecast on 26th September, I did mention that ' if the level 2246 was broken down the market might move further down'. In fact on 27th September ( I also mentioned that it could also happen not on that particular day ) the market did break this level. Anyway, I did not mention the level to sell, it was more of a generalised forecast. If, say, had anybody out there placed a short here, he/she would have made a very very lucrative profits.As for me, I was already in my way to my vacation.
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Today
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In short term, the market is still bearish so is in the very very short term;
..
1) If the market opens between 2003 to 1988. Buy after the market has passed the level between 2004 to 2011. Remember your stop loss
2) If the market opens between 1935 to 1950. Sell after the market has moved down passing the level between 1926 to 1930. Remember your stop loss.
3) If the market opens between 2004 to 2030. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moved up 5 points above the opening level.
4) If the market opens between between 1910 to 1934. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then fallen 5 points below the opening level. Just be extra careful the market may go up again. If not sure just stay away.
5) Other than the above, it is yourcall, I have no idea.
6) Also you can look for trendlines such as 3 tops/ botoms...etc. If you are not familiar, just forget it!
7) Pleas refer to #9 ( Thursday Tips dated 26th June)
8) Also refer to # 9 and#0 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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That's about it! If not sure, refer to your broker but not politician!!!!
Have a nice trading day and smile always!!
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Friday, September 26, 2008

Today - Holiday Mood

Friday - 26th September 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysian time
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December's contract open at 2275 and closed at 2280 yesterday. The highest was at 2351 and the lowest was at 2259. The market saw a different of almost 100 points ( actually 92 points ).
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If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see # 6 ), the market open below 2285 and it did not retrace as expected and the level between 2240 to 2246 was not broken. In fact, the market ended up a small white bar at the end of the day with a long upper shadow. Since the forcast did not suggest any " buy or sell levels" as compared to #1 to # 5, I would say , there was no money loss yesterday. Instead, It was more of your call, really.
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Today
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In long term, the market is bearish but in the very short term, the market is said to be in the sidelines phase. In this phase the strategy that may be suitable to apply would be the contratrian strategy which means, sell where you are supposed to buy and buy where you are supposed to sell. ( Please refer to my previous postings )
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So, I would say, in general, the market will only show its new direction ( it may not be today ) if ;
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1) The level 2246 and 2410 are broken. If the level 2246 is broken down, the market may ( I repeat, the market may ) move further down and, on the other side, if the level 2410 is broken up, the market may ( I repeat, the market may ) move further up
2) If the market opens above 2410, the chances for the market to move further up is greater than the possibilities as in #1. Buy after the market has dropped a "bit" ( Please refer to my previous postings ) and beat up 5 points above the opening level.
3) If the market opens below 2246, the chances for the market to retrace further down is also greater than the possibilities as in #1. Sell after the market has moved up a "bit" and then falls passing 5 points below the opening level.
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P/S : Next week, the market will close on Wednesday and Thursday for 'Aid Mubarak festive season and I would be taking an off for the whole week. So I am going for a vacation and to enjoy myself !!!. Hooray....yahoo....yeahaa...yabadabadoo....etc
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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Thursday - Not So A Wonderful Day

Thursday - 25th September 2008
10.10 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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Yesterday the "swing ' strategy did it again ( refer to my posting on 15th September) but with a small profits. As a day trader, profit is still a profit.For the past 5 days, there were days of 3 acending white bars. On the 4th day, a black bar occurred but it did not beat the lowest of the previous bar but yesterday was the day when it beat down the lowest bar ( of the 4th bar ). So if a sell had been made at this point, a profits of about 20 points could have been able to be made. So if you see this again, JUST DO IT !.
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Today
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So to be brief, the market is bearish now but the very very short term is bullish, so ;
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1) If the market opens between 2320 to 2347. Buy after the market has dropped 13 points after the opening hour. If the market beat down the level between 2298 to 2305, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day. This would be more prominent if the opening hour is more towards the lower part of the 2320-to-2347 levels.If the market beats up the level between 2362 to 2368, the market may go up further and it may be short lived. This would be so if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2320-to-2347 levels. If the opening hour is within the 13 points (or lesser than that ) from the level between 2298 to 2305, just be extra careful, the market may go against you.
2) If the market opens between 2347 to 2357. Buy after the market has passed up 2362.
3) If the market opens between 2310 to 2320. Sell after the market has passed down the level 2306.
4) If the market opens between 2285 to 2305. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening hour. It would be more prominent if the upwards movement is less than 10 points.
5) If the market opens between 2362 to 2382. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and moves up 5 points above the opening hour
6) If the market opens lower than 2285. The market may retrace and if the level between 2240 to 2246 are broken the market may go further down
7) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call, I simply have no idea!
8) Also look for trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms, head and shoulder. If not sure , just stay away.
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
10) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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As usual, if not sure, just contact your broker
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Have a nice trading day
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Tuesday - The 2nd Day of The Week

Tuesday - 16th September 2008
8.48 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.17 a.m. - a little bit of updating
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for November's contract open at 2325 and closed at 2240 yesterday. The highest was at 2341 and the lowest was at 2240 with a 100 points difference. Yesterday also recorded that most of the world's share markets tumbled globally. So did the CPO follow suit?
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The market open at 2325 and linggered between 2318 to 2338 for about 10 to 15 minutes and at 10.47 a.m., the market fell to 2309 ( 16 points from opening ) and immediately rebounced back to the highest of the day at 2341 before settling at 2309 just before the lunch break.After the break, the market kept falling and finally settled to the lowest of the day at 2240.
By refering to my forcast yesterday , see #1, if you had placed a buy position after the market fell about 13 points ( the market fell 16 points as stated above ) from the opening, you would have made a profit of between 20 to 40 points. If you refer to my forecast again, see #1, the market did past down the level between 2302 to 2308 ( in the later part ) and did also go down further and in fact a black bar was formed yesterday.
On the other hand, had you decided to place a buy " 5 points above the opening level", say at about 10.40 a.m. ( because the 1st 3 minutes after opening was a false alarm) at the level of 2330, you still might have made 'some' money only if your stop loss were more than 21 points.
In actuality, I do not really encourage to buy at this point, unless if you have a lot of extra cash and like excitement and challenges, because the market open at the lower part of 2323 to 2380 level and the chances for the market to go further down was quite great especially if the level between 2302 to 2308 were broken ( in fact, it was broken later during the noon hours ). Well, sometimes you have to take the risks ( culculated risks , off course ). Higher risks mean higher gains.
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Today
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My not-so-good mood still persits today and further more today is the 'transition period' from November's contract to December's contract, so I think I better not do any forecast for today.
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As usual, if not sure, just contact your broker....( Many brokers nowadays prefer not to give any advise no more because they are always wrong on many occasions ....)
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Have a great trading day!!!!
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Monday, September 15, 2008

Monday - A Dull Day for Salaried Worker-Especially the Govt Servant

Monday - 15th September 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.55 a.m. - a little bit of updating
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Last week saw 4 days of black bars and a day of white bar. If you are familiar with the so-called "swing" strategy which says that ' If you see a few days of black bars / white bars ( above 3 acending/decending bars - these bars must be among the potential 'reversal' bars ) and then comes a day that beats the last highest/lowest bar, buy/sell at this point ".
Monday to Thursday were the days where the 4 decending black bars dominated the market but Friday was the day where it beat up the last highest of the Thursday's bar. Bingo! If a buy had been placed here ( at 2360 ), you may have ended up with some profits. So if you happen to see this scenerio again, JUST DO IT!, I would say you would be right probably about 80 to 90 % ( .....err ....well, may be about 75 to 85 % ..... errr.....may be about .... ) .
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Today
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Today, I am not in a good mood ( I am just an ordinary human being too ) , so let's just be brief;
The market, in long run is still bearish but the the very very short term is bullish, ;
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1) If the market opens between 2323 to 2380. Buy after the merket has dropped to 13 points after the opening. Becareful of the false alarm, stop loss etc. If the drop is less than 10 points, buy after the market has moved up 5 points above the opening point. If the market beats the level between 2392 to 2398, the market may go further up especially if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2323 to 2380 levels. If the market beats down the level between 2302 to 2308, the market may go down further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 2323 to 2380 levels.
2) If the market opens between 2380 to 2392. Buy after the market has moved up beating the level between 2392 to 2398.If, again, the market manages to beat up the level between 2431 to 2438, the market may go further up and may end a white bar today or at least a part of the trading day.
3) If the market opens between 2313 to 2323. Sell after the market has beaten the level between 2302 to 2308.If the market manages to beat down the level between 2286 to 2291, the market may go further down. If the market retraces further passing down the level between 2265 to 2270, the market may go down further. As usual, if you see any profits, for safety sake, just liquidate it.
4) If the market opens above 2432. The market may go further up ( Currently, I don't know where to buy at this point ) and a white bar may be formed today.
5) If the market opens between 2287 to 2312. Sell after the market has moved up a "bit" and retraced 5 points below opening level.( see my previous postings for the word " a bit " )
6) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call.
7) If you are fimiliar with trendlines, look for 3 tops/bottoms , head and shoulder etc. If not , just stay away
8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
9) Also refer to # 9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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As usual, if not sure, simply contact your broker, never to contact your sister-in-law cum lawyer.
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Have a nice trading day!
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Thursday, September 4, 2008

Thursday - What a Wonderful Day

Thursday - 4th September 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysia Time Zone
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November's contract open at 2509 and closed at 2451 yesterday. The highest was at 2550 and the lowest was at 2433.
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The market open at 2509 and fell sharply to 2500 and immediately rebounced to 2516 in less than a minute. The market then lingered at 2515 to 2516 for about a minute before retracing to the level at 2505. The market again linggered between 2501 to 2508 for quite a time. At about 10.37 a.m., the market started to move up steadily to the highest of the day before settling at 2523 before lunch. After lunch, the market started to drift to the lowest of the day at 2433 before finally settled at 2451.
If you look at my forecast yesterday (see #4 ) and had you placed a buy at 2515 ( 6 points above the opening level ) you would probably may have made a profit of between 20 to 35 points. Anyway the first 2 minutes after the opening was a false alarm ( Had you decided to buy even at this false alarm, you would still have been able to make profits).
If you refer to my forecast ( see #4), the word " drop a bit" is in fact quite relative, please refer to my previous postings for further understanding. I also did mention , see # 1, that if the market managed to beat up the level between 2536 to 2543, the market may go up and a white bar may be formed yesterday. In fact, this did not materialse.
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Today
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As usual, I am not "that prepared" to make any forecst for today. Those who have been with me may probably have the idea of to go about entering the market.
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Have a nice trading day!!!!
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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Wednesday's Performance

Wednesday - 3rd September 2008
9.05 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.20 a.m. - a little bit of up dating
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for September's contract open at 2500 and closed at 2484 yesterday. The highest was at 2536 and the lowest was at 2434 with a total of 102 points traded.
The performance of the CPO was greatly influenced, lately, by the performance of world's crude oil. Yesterday, the crude oil was traded the lowest since August this year.Will the CPO futures follow suit to this phenomena? Yesterday also saw the performance of the soya bean oil was traded lower. How about today ? As the strategy used in this blog is based on the opening of the market, let's look at the forecast for today's market performance.
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Today
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In the long term, the market is still bearish, so is the very very short term.
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1) If the market opens between 2445 to 2490. Sell after the market has moved up 11 to 21 points after opening or if the upwards movement is less than 10 points, sell after the market has passed 6 points below the opening level - just be extra careful, it may be a false alarm ( by the time you sell at this point, the market starts to move up ) which happens quite prequently. As usual, be careful of the false alarm and also your stop loss. If the market manages to beat up the level between 2500 to 2507, the market may move up further especially if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2445-to-2490 levels. If you see any profits, just lock them up immediately, the market may retreat back. But if the market manages to beat up the level between 2536 to 2543, the market may move further up and a white bar may be formed at the end of the day. If the market manages to beat down the level between 2426 to 2434, the market may fall further especially if the market opens more towards the lower side of the 2445-to-2490 levels and if the market, again, beats down the level between 2399 to 2406, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today.
2) If the market opens between 2490 to 2500. Buy after the market has moved passing up the level between 2500 to 2507. See also the bold letters as at #1 above.
3) If the market opens between 2434 to 2445. Sell after the market has moved down passing the level between 2426 to 2434. If, again, the market manages to beat down the level between 2399 to 2406, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today.
4) If the market opens between 2500 to 2526. Buy after the market has drop a bit after opening, and moves up 6 points above the opening level.Be careful of the false alarm etc....
5) If the market opens between 2410 to 2434. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and retraced passing 6 points below the opening level. Be careful of the false alarm etc....
6) If the market opens above 2526 It is your call but I think the market may fall after a short while and a black bar would be formed at the end of the day
7) If the market opens below 2410. It is your call but I think the market would fall (or see also bold letters as at # 5 as above if the market opens "not that far "below the level 2410 ) further especially if the market manages to beat down the level between 2399 to 2406. If the market opens at 2400, the market may fall further at least in the early part of the trading day.
8) Also look for trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms etc... ( if you are not familiar, better stay away from the market )
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
10) Also refer to # 9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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If you are not sure, just refer back to your broker.......off course not your house broker.
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Have a nice trading day!!!!!!
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Monday, August 25, 2008

Tuesday ????

Tuesday - 26th August 2008
1.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November contract open at 2660 and closed at 2600 yesterday. The highest was at 2675 and the lowest was at 2575. A range of 100 points.
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Immediately after opening, the market nose dived in a fast and steep gradient to the level at 2636 ( 24 points down ) before rebounced back beating up the opening level and shot to the highest of the day at 2675 at about 5 minutes after opening.This nose dived situation was clearly a false alarm. The market then started to fall again from the level 2675 to the level at 2610 before rebounced again to 2664 and finally settled at 2630 before lunch.
As for yesterday's market, there was a mistake made in one of my forecasts. If you refer to # 6, it states "If the market opens between below 2688". By right, it should have been " If the market opens below 2665.[ sorry guys ] ......also refer to #5 as above ( Sell after the market has moved up 10 to 21 points above the opening level or if the market moves up less than 10 points.....) ". The market open at 2660 ( below 2665), nose dived 24 points ( false alarm ) and moved up 15 points ( 10 to 21 points above the opening level ) from the opening point .
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Since I have already made a mistake, I do not think it would be appropriate for me to make any comments on yesterday's market .
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Today
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As usual, due to some reasons, I am not able to make any forecast for today. For those who have been following my blog, if any, may probably have the idea of how to go about forecasting the today's market.
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Have a nce trading day!!!!
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Tuesday ????

Tuesday - 26th August 2008
1.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November contract open at 2660 and closed at 2600 yesterday. The highest was at 2675 and the lowest was at 2575. A range of 100 points.
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Immediately after opening, the market nose dived in a fast and steep gradient to the level at 2636 ( 24 points down ) before rebounced back beating up the opening level and shot to the highest of the day at 2675 at about 5 minutes after opening.This nose dived situation was clearly a false alarm. The market then started to fall again from the level 2675 to the level at 2610 before rebounced again to 2664 and finally settled at 2630 before lunch.
As for yesterday's market, there was a mistake made in one of my forecasts. If you refer to # 6, it states "If the market opens between below 2688". By right, it should have been " If the market opens below 2665.[ sorry guys ] ......also refer to #5 as above ( Sell after the market has moved up 10 to 21 points above the opening level or if the market moves up less than 10 points.....) ". The market open at 2660 ( below 2665), nose dived 24 points ( false alarm ) and moved up 15 points ( 10 to 21 points above the opening level ) from the opening point .
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Since I have already made a mistake, I do not think it would be appropriate for me to make any comments on yesterday's market .
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Today
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As usual, due to some reasons, I am not able to make any forecast for today. For those who have been following my blog, if any, may probably have the idea of how to go about forecasting the today's market.
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Have a nce trading day!!!!
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Tuesday ????

Tuesday - 26th August 2008
1.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November contract open at 2660 and closed at 2600 yesterday. The highest was at 2675 and the lowest was at 2575. A range of 100 points.
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Immediately after opening, the market nose dived in a fast and steep gradient to the level at 2636 ( 24 points down ) before rebounced back beating up the opening level and shot to the highest of the day at 2675 at about 5 minutes after opening.This nose dived situation was clearly a false alarm. The market then started to fall again from the level 2675 to the level at 2610 before rebounced again to 2664 and finally settled at 2630 before lunch.
As for yesterday's market, there was a mistake made in one of my forecasts. If you refer to # 6, it states "If the market opens between below 2688". By right, it should have been " If the market opens below 2665.[ sorry guys ] ......also refer to #5 as above ( Sell after the market has moved up 10 to 21 points above the opening level or if the market moves up less than 10 points.....) ". The market open at 2660 ( below 2665), nose dived 24 points ( false alarm ) and moved up 15 points ( 10 to 21 points above the opening level ) from the opening point .
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Since I have already made a mistake, I do not think it would be appropriate for me to make any comments on yesterday's market .
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Today
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As usual, due to some reasons, I am not able to make any forecast for today. For those who have been following my blog, if any, may probably have the idea of how to go about forecasting the today's market.
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Have a nce trading day!!!!
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Monday ????

Monday - 25th August 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November contract open at 2725 and closed at 2715 last Friday. The highest was at 2753 and the lowest was at 2688.The market , in fact, open far too high than the Friday's forcasted levels so, no comment. As for trendlines, there was no clear pattern of what so ever.
Sometimes , one may feel frustrated after seeing the market moved in such a way that one may think " Oh! I should have placed a buy here or I should have placed a sell there.What a wasted day ". Or one may also think " Now the market is coming down, why don't I simply just sell!". But be extra careful because if you follow your this-kind of instinct, you may be right if the market keep retracing down but if the market starts to rebound or in sidelines, in long run you may end up a 'little' poorer. So the best thing to do is to follow whatever strategy that you have because you will never know where the market is heading for tomorrow. If you see a signal to sell , just sell and vise versa. If no signal, just stay away even though the market is so favourable for you to do something that is not within your strategy.
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Today
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In long term, the market is still bearish and so is in the very very short term. My forecast;
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1) If the market opens between 2700 to 2740. Sell after the market has moved up between 10 to 21 points after opening time. As usual, be careful of the false alarm and the stop loss.If , after opening, the market falls to about 26 points, the market may fall further, you can place a sell here but your stop loss should be around 15 to 25 points.If the market manages to beat down the level between 2682 to 2688, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 2700 to 2740's level. If the market moves up and beat the level between 2753 to 2760, the market may go further up especially if it opens more towards the upper end of the 2700 to 2740's level.Probably the market fall back in a very short time.
2) If the market opens between 2740 to 2783. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 2753 to 2760.
3) If the market opens between 2688 to 2700. Sell after the market has passedown the level between 2682 to 2688.
4) If the market opens between 2753 to 2780. Buy only after the market retrace a bit and beat 5 points above the opening level.
5) If the market opens between 2665 to 2688. Sell after the market has moved up between 10 to 21 points above the opening level or if the market moves up less than 10 points and start to retrace back, sell after the market has passed down 5 points below the opening level.
6) If the market opens between below 2688. It is your call but I think look more to selling than buying, also refer to # 5 as the above.
7) If the market opens above 2780. It is your call but I think the market may fall after opening.
8) Also look for clear pattern of trendlines .......if not familiar, just ignore it.
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
10) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips 1st July)
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That's about it, man. As usual, if not sure just contact your broker , he/she can give you a better advise but never contact your car mechanic, he may talk more about wheel alignment than anything else but don't be surprised he may be better than you when it comes CPO futures.......
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Have a nice trading day.
.P/S This blog only potrays the above strategy ( Opening Strategy ) . There are many other strategies that are being used besides than the above.
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