Friday, September 26, 2008

Today - Holiday Mood

Friday - 26th September 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysian time
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December's contract open at 2275 and closed at 2280 yesterday. The highest was at 2351 and the lowest was at 2259. The market saw a different of almost 100 points ( actually 92 points ).
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If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see # 6 ), the market open below 2285 and it did not retrace as expected and the level between 2240 to 2246 was not broken. In fact, the market ended up a small white bar at the end of the day with a long upper shadow. Since the forcast did not suggest any " buy or sell levels" as compared to #1 to # 5, I would say , there was no money loss yesterday. Instead, It was more of your call, really.
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Today
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In long term, the market is bearish but in the very short term, the market is said to be in the sidelines phase. In this phase the strategy that may be suitable to apply would be the contratrian strategy which means, sell where you are supposed to buy and buy where you are supposed to sell. ( Please refer to my previous postings )
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So, I would say, in general, the market will only show its new direction ( it may not be today ) if ;
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1) The level 2246 and 2410 are broken. If the level 2246 is broken down, the market may ( I repeat, the market may ) move further down and, on the other side, if the level 2410 is broken up, the market may ( I repeat, the market may ) move further up
2) If the market opens above 2410, the chances for the market to move further up is greater than the possibilities as in #1. Buy after the market has dropped a "bit" ( Please refer to my previous postings ) and beat up 5 points above the opening level.
3) If the market opens below 2246, the chances for the market to retrace further down is also greater than the possibilities as in #1. Sell after the market has moved up a "bit" and then falls passing 5 points below the opening level.
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P/S : Next week, the market will close on Wednesday and Thursday for 'Aid Mubarak festive season and I would be taking an off for the whole week. So I am going for a vacation and to enjoy myself !!!. Hooray....yahoo....yeahaa...yabadabadoo....etc
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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Thursday - Not So A Wonderful Day

Thursday - 25th September 2008
10.10 a.m. - Malaysian Time
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Yesterday the "swing ' strategy did it again ( refer to my posting on 15th September) but with a small profits. As a day trader, profit is still a profit.For the past 5 days, there were days of 3 acending white bars. On the 4th day, a black bar occurred but it did not beat the lowest of the previous bar but yesterday was the day when it beat down the lowest bar ( of the 4th bar ). So if a sell had been made at this point, a profits of about 20 points could have been able to be made. So if you see this again, JUST DO IT !.
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Today
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So to be brief, the market is bearish now but the very very short term is bullish, so ;
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1) If the market opens between 2320 to 2347. Buy after the market has dropped 13 points after the opening hour. If the market beat down the level between 2298 to 2305, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day. This would be more prominent if the opening hour is more towards the lower part of the 2320-to-2347 levels.If the market beats up the level between 2362 to 2368, the market may go up further and it may be short lived. This would be so if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2320-to-2347 levels. If the opening hour is within the 13 points (or lesser than that ) from the level between 2298 to 2305, just be extra careful, the market may go against you.
2) If the market opens between 2347 to 2357. Buy after the market has passed up 2362.
3) If the market opens between 2310 to 2320. Sell after the market has passed down the level 2306.
4) If the market opens between 2285 to 2305. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening hour. It would be more prominent if the upwards movement is less than 10 points.
5) If the market opens between 2362 to 2382. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and moves up 5 points above the opening hour
6) If the market opens lower than 2285. The market may retrace and if the level between 2240 to 2246 are broken the market may go further down
7) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call, I simply have no idea!
8) Also look for trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms, head and shoulder. If not sure , just stay away.
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
10) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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As usual, if not sure, just contact your broker
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Have a nice trading day
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Tuesday - The 2nd Day of The Week

Tuesday - 16th September 2008
8.48 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.17 a.m. - a little bit of updating
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for November's contract open at 2325 and closed at 2240 yesterday. The highest was at 2341 and the lowest was at 2240 with a 100 points difference. Yesterday also recorded that most of the world's share markets tumbled globally. So did the CPO follow suit?
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The market open at 2325 and linggered between 2318 to 2338 for about 10 to 15 minutes and at 10.47 a.m., the market fell to 2309 ( 16 points from opening ) and immediately rebounced back to the highest of the day at 2341 before settling at 2309 just before the lunch break.After the break, the market kept falling and finally settled to the lowest of the day at 2240.
By refering to my forcast yesterday , see #1, if you had placed a buy position after the market fell about 13 points ( the market fell 16 points as stated above ) from the opening, you would have made a profit of between 20 to 40 points. If you refer to my forecast again, see #1, the market did past down the level between 2302 to 2308 ( in the later part ) and did also go down further and in fact a black bar was formed yesterday.
On the other hand, had you decided to place a buy " 5 points above the opening level", say at about 10.40 a.m. ( because the 1st 3 minutes after opening was a false alarm) at the level of 2330, you still might have made 'some' money only if your stop loss were more than 21 points.
In actuality, I do not really encourage to buy at this point, unless if you have a lot of extra cash and like excitement and challenges, because the market open at the lower part of 2323 to 2380 level and the chances for the market to go further down was quite great especially if the level between 2302 to 2308 were broken ( in fact, it was broken later during the noon hours ). Well, sometimes you have to take the risks ( culculated risks , off course ). Higher risks mean higher gains.
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Today
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My not-so-good mood still persits today and further more today is the 'transition period' from November's contract to December's contract, so I think I better not do any forecast for today.
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As usual, if not sure, just contact your broker....( Many brokers nowadays prefer not to give any advise no more because they are always wrong on many occasions ....)
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Have a great trading day!!!!
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Monday, September 15, 2008

Monday - A Dull Day for Salaried Worker-Especially the Govt Servant

Monday - 15th September 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.55 a.m. - a little bit of updating
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Last week saw 4 days of black bars and a day of white bar. If you are familiar with the so-called "swing" strategy which says that ' If you see a few days of black bars / white bars ( above 3 acending/decending bars - these bars must be among the potential 'reversal' bars ) and then comes a day that beats the last highest/lowest bar, buy/sell at this point ".
Monday to Thursday were the days where the 4 decending black bars dominated the market but Friday was the day where it beat up the last highest of the Thursday's bar. Bingo! If a buy had been placed here ( at 2360 ), you may have ended up with some profits. So if you happen to see this scenerio again, JUST DO IT!, I would say you would be right probably about 80 to 90 % ( .....err ....well, may be about 75 to 85 % ..... errr.....may be about .... ) .
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Today
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Today, I am not in a good mood ( I am just an ordinary human being too ) , so let's just be brief;
The market, in long run is still bearish but the the very very short term is bullish, ;
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1) If the market opens between 2323 to 2380. Buy after the merket has dropped to 13 points after the opening. Becareful of the false alarm, stop loss etc. If the drop is less than 10 points, buy after the market has moved up 5 points above the opening point. If the market beats the level between 2392 to 2398, the market may go further up especially if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2323 to 2380 levels. If the market beats down the level between 2302 to 2308, the market may go down further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 2323 to 2380 levels.
2) If the market opens between 2380 to 2392. Buy after the market has moved up beating the level between 2392 to 2398.If, again, the market manages to beat up the level between 2431 to 2438, the market may go further up and may end a white bar today or at least a part of the trading day.
3) If the market opens between 2313 to 2323. Sell after the market has beaten the level between 2302 to 2308.If the market manages to beat down the level between 2286 to 2291, the market may go further down. If the market retraces further passing down the level between 2265 to 2270, the market may go down further. As usual, if you see any profits, for safety sake, just liquidate it.
4) If the market opens above 2432. The market may go further up ( Currently, I don't know where to buy at this point ) and a white bar may be formed today.
5) If the market opens between 2287 to 2312. Sell after the market has moved up a "bit" and retraced 5 points below opening level.( see my previous postings for the word " a bit " )
6) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call.
7) If you are fimiliar with trendlines, look for 3 tops/bottoms , head and shoulder etc. If not , just stay away
8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
9) Also refer to # 9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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As usual, if not sure, simply contact your broker, never to contact your sister-in-law cum lawyer.
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Have a nice trading day!
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Thursday, September 4, 2008

Thursday - What a Wonderful Day

Thursday - 4th September 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysia Time Zone
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November's contract open at 2509 and closed at 2451 yesterday. The highest was at 2550 and the lowest was at 2433.
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The market open at 2509 and fell sharply to 2500 and immediately rebounced to 2516 in less than a minute. The market then lingered at 2515 to 2516 for about a minute before retracing to the level at 2505. The market again linggered between 2501 to 2508 for quite a time. At about 10.37 a.m., the market started to move up steadily to the highest of the day before settling at 2523 before lunch. After lunch, the market started to drift to the lowest of the day at 2433 before finally settled at 2451.
If you look at my forecast yesterday (see #4 ) and had you placed a buy at 2515 ( 6 points above the opening level ) you would probably may have made a profit of between 20 to 35 points. Anyway the first 2 minutes after the opening was a false alarm ( Had you decided to buy even at this false alarm, you would still have been able to make profits).
If you refer to my forecast ( see #4), the word " drop a bit" is in fact quite relative, please refer to my previous postings for further understanding. I also did mention , see # 1, that if the market managed to beat up the level between 2536 to 2543, the market may go up and a white bar may be formed yesterday. In fact, this did not materialse.
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Today
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As usual, I am not "that prepared" to make any forecst for today. Those who have been with me may probably have the idea of to go about entering the market.
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Have a nice trading day!!!!
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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Wednesday's Performance

Wednesday - 3rd September 2008
9.05 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.20 a.m. - a little bit of up dating
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The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for September's contract open at 2500 and closed at 2484 yesterday. The highest was at 2536 and the lowest was at 2434 with a total of 102 points traded.
The performance of the CPO was greatly influenced, lately, by the performance of world's crude oil. Yesterday, the crude oil was traded the lowest since August this year.Will the CPO futures follow suit to this phenomena? Yesterday also saw the performance of the soya bean oil was traded lower. How about today ? As the strategy used in this blog is based on the opening of the market, let's look at the forecast for today's market performance.
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Today
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In the long term, the market is still bearish, so is the very very short term.
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1) If the market opens between 2445 to 2490. Sell after the market has moved up 11 to 21 points after opening or if the upwards movement is less than 10 points, sell after the market has passed 6 points below the opening level - just be extra careful, it may be a false alarm ( by the time you sell at this point, the market starts to move up ) which happens quite prequently. As usual, be careful of the false alarm and also your stop loss. If the market manages to beat up the level between 2500 to 2507, the market may move up further especially if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2445-to-2490 levels. If you see any profits, just lock them up immediately, the market may retreat back. But if the market manages to beat up the level between 2536 to 2543, the market may move further up and a white bar may be formed at the end of the day. If the market manages to beat down the level between 2426 to 2434, the market may fall further especially if the market opens more towards the lower side of the 2445-to-2490 levels and if the market, again, beats down the level between 2399 to 2406, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today.
2) If the market opens between 2490 to 2500. Buy after the market has moved passing up the level between 2500 to 2507. See also the bold letters as at #1 above.
3) If the market opens between 2434 to 2445. Sell after the market has moved down passing the level between 2426 to 2434. If, again, the market manages to beat down the level between 2399 to 2406, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today.
4) If the market opens between 2500 to 2526. Buy after the market has drop a bit after opening, and moves up 6 points above the opening level.Be careful of the false alarm etc....
5) If the market opens between 2410 to 2434. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and retraced passing 6 points below the opening level. Be careful of the false alarm etc....
6) If the market opens above 2526 It is your call but I think the market may fall after a short while and a black bar would be formed at the end of the day
7) If the market opens below 2410. It is your call but I think the market would fall (or see also bold letters as at # 5 as above if the market opens "not that far "below the level 2410 ) further especially if the market manages to beat down the level between 2399 to 2406. If the market opens at 2400, the market may fall further at least in the early part of the trading day.
8) Also look for trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms etc... ( if you are not familiar, better stay away from the market )
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
10) Also refer to # 9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
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If you are not sure, just refer back to your broker.......off course not your house broker.
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Have a nice trading day!!!!!!
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