Monday - 25th August 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time
The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November contract open at 2725 and closed at 2715 last Friday. The highest was at 2753 and the lowest was at 2688.The market , in fact, open far too high than the Friday's forcasted levels so, no comment. As for trendlines, there was no clear pattern of what so ever.
Sometimes , one may feel frustrated after seeing the market moved in such a way that one may think " Oh! I should have placed a buy here or I should have placed a sell there.What a wasted day ". Or one may also think " Now the market is coming down, why don't I simply just sell!". But be extra careful because if you follow your this-kind of instinct, you may be right if the market keep retracing down but if the market starts to rebound or in sidelines, in long run you may end up a 'little' poorer. So the best thing to do is to follow whatever strategy that you have because you will never know where the market is heading for tomorrow. If you see a signal to sell , just sell and vise versa. If no signal, just stay away even though the market is so favourable for you to do something that is not within your strategy.
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Today
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In long term, the market is still bearish and so is in the very very short term. My forecast;
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1) If the market opens between 2700 to 2740. Sell after the market has moved up between 10 to 21 points after opening time. As usual, be careful of the false alarm and the stop loss.If , after opening, the market falls to about 26 points, the market may fall further, you can place a sell here but your stop loss should be around 15 to 25 points.If the market manages to beat down the level between 2682 to 2688, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 2700 to 2740's level. If the market moves up and beat the level between 2753 to 2760, the market may go further up especially if it opens more towards the upper end of the 2700 to 2740's level.Probably the market fall back in a very short time.
2) If the market opens between 2740 to 2783. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 2753 to 2760.
3) If the market opens between 2688 to 2700. Sell after the market has passedown the level between 2682 to 2688.
4) If the market opens between 2753 to 2780. Buy only after the market retrace a bit and beat 5 points above the opening level.
5) If the market opens between 2665 to 2688. Sell after the market has moved up between 10 to 21 points above the opening level or if the market moves up less than 10 points and start to retrace back, sell after the market has passed down 5 points below the opening level.
6) If the market opens between below 2688. It is your call but I think look more to selling than buying, also refer to # 5 as the above.
7) If the market opens above 2780. It is your call but I think the market may fall after opening.
8) Also look for clear pattern of trendlines .......if not familiar, just ignore it.
9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
10) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips 1st July)
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That's about it, man. As usual, if not sure just contact your broker , he/she can give you a better advise but never contact your car mechanic, he may talk more about wheel alignment than anything else but don't be surprised he may be better than you when it comes CPO futures.......
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Have a nice trading day.
.P/S This blog only potrays the above strategy ( Opening Strategy ) . There are many other strategies that are being used besides than the above.
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