Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday - 4 Mac 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysia time zone

Last Thursday, I mentioned that the market would be in sidelines phase unless the market managed to break up above 3920 or break down the level 3750. In fact on Friday , the market open above 3920 i.e. 3960. So I could foresee that the market is still in the bullish sentiment. Anyway care must be taken into account as the market is said to be in the overbought position.

Yesterday the market open at 4154 and closed at 4330. The highest was at 4332 ( the highest so far ) and the lowest was at 4231.Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's market, so I reserve my comment.


As I said just now, the market is still in bullish sentiment though I think it is a little bit overbought. Some say the market went up high due to stop losses which have been placed earlier by those who have put a sell position.Further more, the market's per tick also showed quite a high spread of between 3 to 5 points, at times 10 points. This indicates that the votality is quite high and if any position is to take place, the stop loss should be between 15 to 35 points.This is a situation which gives, especially small investors like me, a very high risk unless if they are willing to take a higer risk than usual. Frankly speaking, I would rather prefer not to enter the market, just wait and see for the time being. If you still feel like wanting to enter the market, then probably you can use a strategy where you look for the movement of the market which is a little bit slow and the spread per tick is normal ( 1 point per tick ).

Any way , my forecast for today is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 4177 to 4340. After opening, if the market falls to about 30 to 40 points then a buy position can be placed here. Do not forget to put a stop loss between 15 to 35 points. The best is, let the market goes up a little bit and later falls slowly and steadily to the intended level. If you are not sure, you can use a "lightning" or "first beating"strategy to look for the best position to buy.
2) If the market opens above 4355 the market may ends up a black bar today.
3) If the market opens below 4177 and later passes down the level 4150, the market may fall further down
4) If the market opens anywhere, especially near the 4177 level and later passes the level 4150, a further drift may happen.
5) Look for a clear formation of Head and shoulder, 2 or 3 tops, etc. Here focus more on selling rather than buying.

If you are not sure today, just stay away from the market.
This is my speculation on today's market, I may be wrong, I have been wrong for so many times. Anyway, better consult your broker .
Happy trading !