Wednesday, March 12, 2008

National Election and the Market

Wednesday - 12 Mac 2008
11.55 p.m. - Malaysia time zone

Due to the cpo's market scenario and also to the national election held in Malaysia a few days back, which ended in a surprise result, prompted me not be able to make any speculation on the CPO's market.The price fluctuation have been very very volatile and most of the days, the range is above 100 points per day and the movement per tick is between 5 to 10 points. In some cases it shot up to even 15 to 20 points. An everage or small investor like myself may not be in the position to enter the market because of its high risks. In some event, even if you put a stop loss of 15 to 20 points it may not end up to what you may have expected especially to what had happened on 10 th of Mac 2008. The market went up to 4000 points within a few seconds. If you had a position contarary to the movemet of the market , you could have ended up poorer by a few thousands ( only by 1 lot ). So should you wait for the market to stable first or to enter as it is the time to make very big money while the market is still "active". As for me, I still like the market except that I would look for a quiter period where the movement per tick is normal.
Anyway, this is my forecast of the market for tomorrow ;


I still like to say the market is still in a bearish situation;
1) Take position if the market open between the range of 3760 to 3800. Recently the market seemed to open far higher or far lower from the previous day bar. After opening and the market goes up to between 14 to 30 points, then place a sell here. Put a stop loss of between 10 to 20 points. If the movement of the market is very fast and per tick is high, just be careful. To be safe after reaching the targetted level, you can use lightning or first beating strategies.If this pattern exists then only you take the position to sell.
2) If after opening , between this range, the market moves up and beat 3821 to 3825 and above, the market may move further up especially if the level of 3880 is broken.If the market opens between the range and starts to move passing down 3234 to 3239 and below , a further downwards movement may be expected especially if the level 3697 is broken.
3) If the market opens between 3821 to 3845, the market may go up further especially if the level of 3880 is broken and a white bar can be expected tomorrow
4) If the market opens 3715 and below , the market may ends in a white bar
5) Besides the above, if no position is taken after opening, you could probably look for a clear pattern of trendlines especially "after" afternoon.

If after opening , the market is volatile and per tick movement is high, just stay away from the market.