Friday, June 20, 2008

Tips for Friday

Friday - 20 June 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( Crude Palm Oil ) for September's contract open at 3645 and closed at 3600. The highest was at 3650 and the lowest was at 3579.


The market, in avery very short term, is said to be bearish. So , in brief, here is my forecast for today ;

1)If the market opens between the level 3590 to 3625. Sell after the market has moved up " a little bit " ( those who have been following my blog may have the idea of how to go about doing it ). Be careful if the market opens and immediately moves up in a fast and steep gradient, it could be a false alarm or the market may go up further and may end up a white bar today. For best result, the market opens and retraces down a bit before moves up nicely to the intended level. If the market beats up the level between 3636 to 3644, the market may go further up. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the upper end of the level between 3590 to 3653 level. If this happens ( opens at the upper end ) and beats up the level 3636 to 3644 and later the level between 3650 to 3656 the market may end up a white bar.If the market retraces down, after opening, and beats the level between 3570 to 3579, the market may retrace further down but it may bounce back in a short time.

2)If the market opens between the level between 3625 to 3635. Buy after the market beats up the level 3636 to 3644. The market may end up a white bar today.

3) If the market opens between the level 3579 to 3590. Sell after the market retraces down and beats the level between 3570 to 3579. Lock up for profits here once you see some , the market may rebounce in a short time.

4)If the market opens between the level 3555 to 3579. Sell after the market has moved up a bit or after the market has moved up a bit and falls at least 3 points passing the opening level.

5)If the market opens between the level 3635 to 3662. See #4 but do the opposite way except if the market opens and starts to move up, try to catch up ( long ) here. If the market manages to beat the level between 3650 to 3658, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.

6)If the market opens above 3662. It is your call, I don't know , man!

7) If the market opens below 3555. It is your call but I got a feeling that the market may end a white bar or at least a part of the trading day today.

8) Do not forget your stop loss, false alarm etc. If you are not sure, look for clear pattern of trendlines such as 3 tops/bottom, head and shoulder etc...

If still not sure contact your broker or better still do nothing today. If you do nothing, nothing will happen - for sure you are not going to waste any money today.

Have a nice trading moment

P/S Sorry Mike, my English can be terrible at times ( or most of the time ? )


Nick Sani said...

Hi Sham,

In my previous postings I did mention that there are other strategies which can be used that may ensure a better winning outcomes.In a day you can trade using many methodologies e.g. you trade :

1) After opening hour
2) After half hour of trading eg contrarian strategy etc
3) Trendlines - 3 tops.. etc
4) Breakaways/ breakout e.g. swing strategy, lightning, double beating ..etc ( at anytime from opening to about 5.00 p.m. )

So there are at least 4 ways to enter the market in a day

To me, it is not the timing that really bothers me, what is important is the point of entrance. As a small trader, we have to act like a spider. You build a cob-web and wait for the food to strike the web. You will get the food if the food strikes your web.You simply cannot go out of the web to look for the food.

I never believe in statistical datas released by any authorised bodies.Sometimes the market moves up voigourously before the datas are released. Once the datas are released the market tumble ( it happens that you enter the market here expecting the market to go further up ). This shows that before the datas are released, the information has already leaked out and been circulating around

I have a friend who treats the market like a casino and he said it worked well for him.Firstly, he devised a system that has a ratio of 10:7 or 10: 6 of winning. Later he bought 1 lot, if he loss, he bought 2 lots, if he loss again, he bought 4 lots... etc until he won and coverd the losses. Then he went to start buying 1 lot again at a time.Well, I have never tried this strategy.

Well, nice having you around.

sham said...

Hi Nick,

Love the way you put it... from now onwards i will be waiting at my cob-web .. You are surely right on we being spider like..

Actually i too do not trade based on data releases.. obviously there should be leaks. So i usually mind my business and go ahead with my breakout rules.. But this are the days i usually get squashed if i dont lock in profits .. ( usually save to take around only 15 pts )So nowdays i just stay aside till all the excitment gone and see for an oppurtunity in the afternoon.

Have you attended many technical courses? Any Guru's ?

Alright.. todays data day.. so iam trying my best not to trade this morning... Its rather hard since my work involves me to be all the time on the internet...

Happy weekends...