Thursday, June 19, 2008

Thursday ?

Thursday - 19 June 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysia Time Zone

The Crude Palm Oil's ( CPO ) September contract open at 3665 and closed at 3640 yesterday. The highest was at 3680 and the lowest was at 3639.

If you look at one of my forecast yesterday ( #1) which indicated "If the market opens between the level 3650 to 3682. Sell after the market has moved up " a little bit " ( between 9 to 20 points ) from opening level.", the market yesterday infact open at 3665 and at about 11.00 a.m. shot up to the highest of the day ( at 3680 - 20 points after opening ) at noon before retracing down to almost the lowest when it closed at 6.00 p.m. Had a sell position been placed at this range ( between 9 to 20 points from opening level i.e from 3669 to 3680 ), a very good profits would have been able to be made indeed. Anyway , as the strategy focuses more on taking position after opening level ( see one of my previous postings ), I would probably do not recommend to place a position here especially at noon because the risk is higher here. Any way, some people say risk is every where in futures trading, even your life is full of risks!


As usual, I am not in the position to make any forecast today. Those who have been following my blog may probably......blah..blah...

If you are not sure , please contact your broker but never contact....blah....blah...blah...

Have a nice trading day!!!!


Nick Sani said...

Hi Sham,

I also trade to a certain timing you just mentioned i.e. after half an hour of the trading either in the morning or after noon session. The first half hour of the trading is said to be the period of uncertainty. But the strategy used in my blog is more on after opening strategy.

As for the setting up a benchmark for hi and low, I have analysed this strategy but the way I look at it, it involves more risks than other strategies, the probability of winning is 40%-50% which is not that very good.

You are right, it is not easy to predict the movement of the market as it has a contrary behaviour in each hour. What I can suggest here is that devise a system/systems which have more winning outcomes and stick to it and follow the strategy strictly.When you see a signal to go in, just simply go in and do not hesitate. As I said earlier in one of my postings, it is easy to enter the market but not easy to exit from it. As for me, I do not know whether I would be around long enough as sometimes the startegy that you have using may not be approprite in years to come. The risks of being thrown out "again" is always there.

If no body is making money in CPO market, the market will not be there.


sham said...

Hi Nick,

So in actual fact, you just trade after opening hours, sometimes not waiting for that lousy half hour to pass..?

Yup,waiting for a hi and low of the day to form makes a trade rather high risk.. My stops need to be so far.. and a false break out can actually give you a heart attack. But when cpo is trending , i have my day... But recently its been moving in a sideway direction.. so a false break can happen.

I have been looking at the screen to long, that i really belief that timing is everything... So this restricts me from entering...

Even days when data ( eks & stock)comes out for cpo .. the behaviour is much different... Is there any difference for you on those days? Can u follow your strategies? since market is always influence by the data for about a few min.. then other fundamental issues kicks in.. and i usually get kick out..

Anyway, i am trying to get with a new strategy. Since my stops are really killing me.

Thanks for the advise and do share more new ideas

May today be profitable & fun .....