Sunday, June 15, 2008

Friday's Analysis

Sunday 15 June 2008
2.55 p.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO's August contract open at 3660 and closed at 3690 last Friday. The highest was at 3712 and the lowest was at 3653.

Please refer to my forecast last Friday ( see #3 ) which stated that " If the market opens between the level 3656 to 3666. Buy after the market has beaten the level between 3666 to 3673 ". The market, in fact , open at 3660, fell a little bit, and immediately moved up beating the level 3666 but it was a false alarm as the market movement was quite fast ( I have mentioned this so many times in my privious forecasts ) . A second attempt occurred after that and beat again the level between 3666 to 3673 and later moved up to the highest of the day at 3712. Had a buy position been taken here, a maximum profit of about 40 points could have been made quite easily. I also mentioned in my previous forecast that " if the market moves and beats the level 3691 to 3697, the market may go up further and a white bar may be formed today " ( see #5 ). The market did go up and beat the said level but later retraced down " a lttle bit " before settling down at 3690 and a white bar was formed on that day.

Tomorrow ( Monday )

Due to some reasons, I am not able to do any forecasting for tomorrow. Those who have been following my blog ( are they out there? - If there is none, may be one day I may have to say good bye to this blog of mine ) may probably have the idea of how to go about entering the market.

Have a nice trading day!!!!!!


sham said...

hi Nik...

I just discovered your block.. so i really do hope you'll continue your good work.

I was really looking forward for a forecast today...

Anyway markets always there...

Nick Sani said...

Thank you Mike, at least I know I got a feedback from you. Read on my postings especially the early part of it. For some reasons of my own, I do not post my forecast to this blog on daily basis but may be once or twice a week but I do trade almost every day.When the opening is not within my forecast analysis, I simply do not trade on that particular day.

sham said...

Hi Nick

Could you share with me why opening prices are important for a forecast of the day... I know openings will just reflect overnight movement in the soy or oil markets...Is there more?

Nick Sani said...

Hi Sham,

Besides that, opening level also reflexes;

1) The investors psychological behavior such as greed, panic and fearetc Sometimes the market in soy bean oil and crude oil ended up high with a white bar but the CPO market opens very low
2)The manipulation of the "big boys" in the local market
3)There may be rumours regarding, say, climate, CPO's statistical export data etc..
4) I also do not know why, except that this strategy has worked quite well for me

What are doing at the moment? if I may ask.