Friday, July 25, 2008

Friday ?

Friday - 25th July 2008
8.55 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October contract open at 3041 and closed at 3113 yesterday. The highest was at 3127 and the lowest was at 3041.

Immediately after opening, the market started to move up in a very fast and in a very steep gradient and when it reached 3070, the market was a little bit stable before going up again to 3080 ( at about 10.35 a.m. ). At this level the market was a bit "ding-donging' before it fell to the level 3062 ( at about 11.00 a.m. ). The market then moved up again to close at 3084 for the morning session. The market open at 3074 in the afternoon session, continued to move up and finally settled at 3113.

If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see #1 ), the market managed to beat up the level 3126 and it did end up a white bar eve nthough this happened almost at the end of the trading day. In my forecast I also did mention to sell 'after the market has moved up 15 to 35 points from the opening level' ( and a stop loss of 20 to 40 points ). Since the market, after opening has moved up in 'a fast and in a steep gradient '( see # 9c dated 26th June ), it was not adviseable to put a sell here. Had a sell position been placed, say at 3070 ( because there was a market stability here )or below you would have ended up losing money but had you placed a sell at about 3075 ( after the market has retraced from the level 3080 - at about 10.40 a.m.), you might have ended making a small profits of at least 10 points. Well , it is easier to say when things have already happened, don't you think so ?

Today

What I have been forecasting for this week have not been fruitful to my expectation, so today I feel like wanting not to say anything on today's market performance. I also feel like wanting to yell and shout aloud .....I would probably do so if I am to live in a jungle..something like Tarzan.

Have a nice trading day today!!!!

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Thursday - 24/7/08

Thursday - 24th July 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October contract open at 3210 and closed at 3027. The highest was at 3211 and the lowest was at 3027.

The market open and moved up to 3211 in a short time and immediately fell down to 3219 before rebounced to 3151 at noon and after that the market started to decelerate to the lowest of the morning session and settled at 3062.In the afternoon the market open at 3095 and finally settled at 3027, the lowest of the day. It was one of the longest rally ever seen, if I am not mistaken, with a different of 184 points. If you trade Soybean Oil in CBOT, if I am not mistaken again, there is a limit to your trading which means if the market moves within a certain points, the market will be temporarily suspended but , it seems, it is not so in Malaysia. So, be very careful!

The market did not open within my forecast, so theoretically, there was no money been accumulated yesterday. In fact the market open far below my forecasted area. Frankly speaking, I was expecting the market to move up yesterday even though the Soybean Oil and Crude Oil futures in CBOT were bearish. The reason being that the market has been bearish for "quite sometimes". Well, I was wrong.

Today

Still interested to know what is my forecast for today? Normally, being a small time investor, I do not normally trade in this kind of situation ( a different of more than 100 points a day) because if I do, I have to place a bigger stop loss between 20 to 40 points which I do not think I can afford it. In normal circumtances I would place between 10 to 15 points per trade. Anyway , my forecast would as follows ;

1) If the market opens between 3040 to 3113. Sell after the market has moved up 15 to 35 points after opening. If the market managed to beat up the level between 3126 to 3135, the market may move further up and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the upper part of "3040 to 3113 "level. If the market manages to beat down the level between 3027 to 3040, the market may fall further especially if the market opens more towards the lower end of the " 3040 to 3113" level.

2) If the market opens between 3113 to 3126. Buy after the market has beaten the level between 3126 to 3134.

3) If the market opens between 3027 to 3040. Sell after the market has beaten the level between 3020.

4) If the market opens between 3126 to 3150. Buy after the market has moved down a bit and moves up passing 8 points the opening level. If , after opening, the market does not retrace but instead keep moving up, you could long here ( only experience trader may be able to recognise this, if not, just stay away from the market )

5) If the market opens between 3000 to 3027. The market may fall and rebounce later.

6) Other than the above, it is your call, I have no idea at the moment.

7) Your stop loss should be around 20 to 40 points.

8) May be you could trade in the afternoon if the morning session is not that volatile ( below 100 points - but you cannot use the method as above )

9) Besides, or you could also look for trendlines especially the 2 or 3 Bottoms Pattern

10) Refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

11) Also refer to #9 & # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's about it, I may be wrong and I have been wrong-ed quite many times and I .........blah blah blah

Have a nice trading day

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Wednesday's Forecast

Wednesday - 23th July 2008
9.25 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October contract open at 3230 and closed at 3252 yesterday. The highest was at 3294 and the lowest was at 3225.
After opening, the market moved up steadily to reach 3251 before retracing down to the lowest of the day at 3225 before bouncing back to almost the highest of the morning session at 3273 ( the highest was at 3274 ). In the afternoon session, the market open at 3285, retraced a bit to 3272 and then shot up to the highest of the day at 3294 before settling down at 3252.

If you look my forecast yesterday at # 3, it indicated to "sell after the market has passed down the level between 3218 to 3226 ". There were 2 options here ; 1 ) Had you decided to sell at 3226 or 3225 then you would have ended up losing your money 2) Had you decided to sell other than the 2 levels mentioned above, then you would have ended up with nothing to loose. As for me, I managed to short at 3225 with a stop loss at 3237. Immediately after that, the market started to move up and never to turn back anymore and my stop loss triggered at 3240. So, I was poorer by 15 points! Well, that's it, you can't win them all! Anyway the market did end up a white bar . ( refer to # 2 ) . As for trendlines, there were no clear pattern of any signs yesterday.

Today

So, are you still interested to know my forecast for today ? Well, the market in a very very short term is now bullish. So my forecast ;

1) If the market opens between 3254 to 3283. Buy after the market has fallen a bit probably between 9 to 19 points after opening. Be careful if the market manages to beat down the level between 3237 to 3245 especially if the market opens more towards the lower end of the "3245 to 3283" levels. If this happens, the market may retrace down but the market may rebounce back probably around the level between 3220 to 3240. If it does not, then it would retrace further down.If the market manages to beat up the level between 3294 to 3300, especially if the market opens more towards the upper end of "3254 to 3282 " level, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

2) If the market opens between 3283 to 3294. Buy after the market has moved up passing the level between 3294 to 3300. If this happens, see the bold letters as in #1

3) If the market opens between 3245 to 3254. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 3237 to 3245. Just be careful the market may rebounce probably around the level 3220 to 3240.If this does not happen, the market may drift further down .If not sure, just stay away from the market.

4) If the market opens between 3294 to 3330. Buy after has fallen down a bit and started to move up passing 3 points above the opening points. See the bold letters as in # 1as above.

5) If the market opens other than the above . It is your call , I don't know, man.

6) Besides or if you feel not wanting to follow all of the above, you can also look for a clear pattern of trendlines especially the 3 bottoms in afternoon session.

7) At the end of the day, if the market, after passing up the level between 3294 to 3300, does not end a white bar, the market may be in sidelines from now on.

8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thusrday's Tips dated 26th June )

9) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's about it. If you are undecided kindly contact your broker, never to contact any of your "bomohs" as these people are nothing but $%#@!&^*..

Have a nice trading day!

Any way if you happens to know any bomoh who can focus the direction of the market, may can contact me lah......

Monday, July 21, 2008

Tuesday's Market

Tuesday - 22 July 2008
12.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October's contract open at 3320 and closed at 3260 yesterday. The highest was at 3335 and the lowest was at 3197.

The market open not within the forecasted analysis as put forward yesterday, so theoritically, there was no money made yesterday. Anyway, if you look at the trendlines, there was quite a clear pattern of 3 bottoms which occured at about 12.00 noon. Those who are not familiar with 2 or 3 bottoms are advised not to use this method as it may add to confusion at times.

Today

In a very short term, the market is still in bearish position. Anyway the direction of the market today may depend on the opening point ;

1) If the market opens between 3236 to 3274. Sell after the market has moved up between 9 to 20 points after opening of the market. Be careful if the market manages to beat up the level between 3284 to 3290, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day. This may be prominent if the opening is nearer to the upper end of the 3236 to 3274 level.Also careful, if the market, after opening, starts to move up in a very fast and in steep gradient and if this happens the market may continue to go up further or it could also be a false alarm.
If the market manages to break down the level between 3218 to 3226, the market may go further down but may rebounce back . If you make enough profits here, just lock them up! This will be more prominent if the market opens more nearer to the lower end of the 3236 to 3274 level.

2) If the market opens between 3274 to 3284. Buy after the market has passed the level between 3284 to 3290. If these levels are broken the market may go up further and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

3) If the market opens between 3226 to 3236. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 3218 to 3226. The market may fall further down but it may rebounce back.

4) If the market opens between 3284 to 3310. Buy here - to be safe, let the market falls a bit and buy after the market has moved up and beat 3 points above the opening point.

5) If the market opens between 3200 to 3226. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls passing 3 points the opening level. If the market opens and moves up in a fast way, the market may go further up.

6) If the market open above 3310. It is your call. If the market moves up and beats the level between 3336 to 3343, the market may move further up and a white bar may be formed today.

7) If the market opens below 3200. It is your call. I don't know man but I think the market may ends a white bar.

8) If the market opens at any point and manages to beat the level between 3336 to 3343, the market may go further up especially if the market opens nearer to this level.

9) You can also look for a very clear pattern of trendlines to place your position

10) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

11) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's about it, I may be wrong.....blah..blah...If you are not sure, do contact your broker but never contact your land lord ( if you have one ). He/she may like to raise the rent of your house

Have a nice trading day!!!!

Monday's Direction Today

Monday - 21 July 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time
10.00 a.m. - a little bit of updating
10.10 a.m. - Another updating, to correct wrong figures

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October's contract open at 3397 and closed at 3392 on last Friday. The highest was at 3405 and the lowest was at 3358. It was a black bar and in a form of a hammer ( according to Japanese candle stick ). So no comment on that.

Today?

Last Friday, the market ended with a black bar and a hammer candle was formed. According to Japanese candle stick, it indicates that the market is in the reversal pattern. In Japanese candle stick, there are 3 types of candles which are of interest to most of the day traders which are beleived to be able to give about 75% accuracy. These are the Hammer or Hangging Man, Engulfing Bar, Dark Cloud Cover or Piercing Bar. Anyway, the realism of the reversal pattern would also depend on the opening of the market on the next session. Here are my forecast for today;

1) If the market opens between 3363 to 3393. Buy after the market has moved up and beat the level between 3393 to 3399. The market may move further up if the level between 3405 to 3410 are broken and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.
If the market moves down and beats the level between 3350 to 3358, sell here as the market may go further down but it may be short lived, the market may rebounce back. If you manage to make enough profits, lock it up quickly!

2) If the market opens between 3394 to 3406. Wait the market to fall a bit and buy after the market has moved up beating the 3 points above the opening point or if after opening, the market do not retrace not even a bit, buy after the market has beaten the level between 3405 to 3410. See also #1 ( the bold letters ).

3) If the market opens between 3405 to 3430. Buy here - for safety purposes, wait the market to fall a bit and buy after the market has moved up again and beat the opening point.

4) If the market opens above 3430. It is your call. I don't know, really.

5) If the market opens below 3350.It is your call, I don't know , really.

6) If you are not sure, you can look for a clear pattern of trendlines such as 3 tops/ bottoms etc

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

Well, tha's it. If not sure , do contact your broker but never to contact your .......blah,blah

Enjoy your trading !!!

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Today?

Thursday - 10 July 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for September's contract open at 3470 and closed at 3515 yesterday. The highest was at 3521 and the lowest was at 3439.

If you refer to my forecast yesterday ( see # 1 ), the opening was at 3470 and about 20 points from 3490 ( see # 1 ) , so you have 2 options here ; either to sell or stay away from the market :

1) Had you decided to enter the market , say by shorting at at 3477 - 7 points from opening with 10 to 15 points stop loss or at any points between 7 to 10 points from opening level - you probably would have made some good profits ( the market then fell to the lowest level at 3439 before climbing up again to close to almost the highest of the day ).

2) Had you decided to stay away from the market as you were not sure whether the market might move up to beat the level between 3490 to 3497 or not ( which indicated the market might go further up - in fact it did in the afternoon ) then you would be just fine. Don't worry, be happy ( just like a song in the 90's )

As for today, you just figure it out.

Have a nice trading moment today

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Wednesday's Heading

Wednesday - 9 July 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malayisian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for September's contract open at 3477 and closed at 3454 yesterday. The highest was at 3534 and the lowest was at 3454. No comment on that

Today

In medium term, the market is bearish, so is the very very short term. My forecast for today is as follows;

1) If the market opens between the level 3454 to 3480. Sell if the market moves up between 7 to 10 points from opening point. Becareful here, the market is now below 3480 which indicates that the market may go up sooner or later and if this happens especially after beating up the level between 3490 to 3497 , the market may end a white bar today. If you are not sure, just stay away from the market.

2) If the market opens between 3480 to 3490. Buy after the market has moved up and passed the level between 3490 to 3597.The market may go up further if the level between 3535 to 3560 are broken.

3) If the market opens between 3490 to 3518. Buy after the market has retraced a bit after opening or/and after the market has moved up between 5 to 10 points from the opening point. The market may move further up if the level between 3535 to 3560 are to be broken.

4) If the market opens above 3518. Please refer to the bold leters as at #3

5) If the market opens below 3454. It is your call. The market may go up today but I don't know where to suggest for the buy position.

6) You can also look for a clear pattern of 2 or 3 bottoms to long especially if the market has passed down the level 3454.

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26 June )

8) Please also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1 July )

Well, that's about it. If not sure , contact your broker and never refer to any blogger ( including me? )

Have a nice trading day