Thursday - 24th July 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time
The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October contract open at 3210 and closed at 3027. The highest was at 3211 and the lowest was at 3027.
The market open and moved up to 3211 in a short time and immediately fell down to 3219 before rebounced to 3151 at noon and after that the market started to decelerate to the lowest of the morning session and settled at 3062.In the afternoon the market open at 3095 and finally settled at 3027, the lowest of the day. It was one of the longest rally ever seen, if I am not mistaken, with a different of 184 points. If you trade Soybean Oil in CBOT, if I am not mistaken again, there is a limit to your trading which means if the market moves within a certain points, the market will be temporarily suspended but , it seems, it is not so in Malaysia. So, be very careful!
The market did not open within my forecast, so theoretically, there was no money been accumulated yesterday. In fact the market open far below my forecasted area. Frankly speaking, I was expecting the market to move up yesterday even though the Soybean Oil and Crude Oil futures in CBOT were bearish. The reason being that the market has been bearish for "quite sometimes". Well, I was wrong.
Still interested to know what is my forecast for today? Normally, being a small time investor, I do not normally trade in this kind of situation ( a different of more than 100 points a day) because if I do, I have to place a bigger stop loss between 20 to 40 points which I do not think I can afford it. In normal circumtances I would place between 10 to 15 points per trade. Anyway , my forecast would as follows ;
1) If the market opens between 3040 to 3113. Sell after the market has moved up 15 to 35 points after opening. If the market managed to beat up the level between 3126 to 3135, the market may move further up and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the upper part of "3040 to 3113 "level. If the market manages to beat down the level between 3027 to 3040, the market may fall further especially if the market opens more towards the lower end of the " 3040 to 3113" level.
2) If the market opens between 3113 to 3126. Buy after the market has beaten the level between 3126 to 3134.
3) If the market opens between 3027 to 3040. Sell after the market has beaten the level between 3020.
4) If the market opens between 3126 to 3150. Buy after the market has moved down a bit and moves up passing 8 points the opening level. If , after opening, the market does not retrace but instead keep moving up, you could long here ( only experience trader may be able to recognise this, if not, just stay away from the market )
5) If the market opens between 3000 to 3027. The market may fall and rebounce later.
6) Other than the above, it is your call, I have no idea at the moment.
7) Your stop loss should be around 20 to 40 points.
8) May be you could trade in the afternoon if the morning session is not that volatile ( below 100 points - but you cannot use the method as above )
9) Besides, or you could also look for trendlines especially the 2 or 3 Bottoms Pattern
10) Refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )
11) Also refer to #9 & # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )
That's about it, I may be wrong and I have been wrong-ed quite many times and I .........blah blah blah
Have a nice trading day