Monday - 7 March 2008
12.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time
On last 1st of April ( April Fool day? ) , I made a prediction on the CPO market but it seemed my prediction was not right at all. As I have said earlier on, in this kind of investment there are times when you are right, sometimes almost to 100%, and there are also times when you are not. If you are using Japanese candle sticks, not all the sign that you recognise on the chart may end up to your expectation.
Well, last Friday the market open at 3305 and closed at 3297. The highest was at 3305 and the lowest was at 3262.
Today;
Well, if there are still people out there who may still like to "hear " my forecast, then here is my forecast for today's market; I think, in short term, the market is in the bearish sentiment though it also looks like the market is passing through a period of uncertainty.
1) If the market opens between 3304 to 3330, the market may end up a white bar today but due to the performance of the market for the past 3 days, the market may also go up for a while and later may come down. The best thing to do here is to wait the market to go down after opening and put a buy here ( see my previous articles in this blog ) and sell immediately after it has gone up.
2) If the market opens between 3290 to 3303 and later moves up beating the level between 3308 to 3315, the market may go up further.Be careful here, the market may go down after going up to a certain level ( see #1 as above ).If after opening within this range and the market starts to move down passing the level between 3280 to 3277, the market may fall further down ( put a sell here )and if it beats down again the level between 3297 to 3256, the market may fall further and a black may be developed at the end of the day.
3) If the market opens between 3257 to 3281, the market may falls further and a possibility of black bar may be happening today
4) If the market opens below 3257, the market may ends up a white bar today.
Well, that is my forecast today, hope I am right!!!!
Hav a nice trading.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Next Direction
Wednesday - 2 April 2008
10.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time
A few days back , I tried to post my forecast to my blog but it did not get through. I just wonder why?
Since the market is about to open in just a few minutes more, I do not think I will be able to do any detail forecasting today.
According to Japanese candle stick, the bar for yesterday's was a hammer. In this situation, it is believed that the bar indicates the reversal pattern. Sometimes it turns to be the other way round.Most investors like this bar, anyway it will depend on the opening. If the opening is higher than yesterday's highest, the probablity is that the market will end a white bar, but in the early part of the trading, the market may be moving southwards. If opens too high, it is hard to say.Also if the market opens within the body of yesterday's ( more towards to the highest of yesterday ) and later moves up beating yesterday's highest ( better if it beats 4 to 10 points above yesterday's highest), it may end with a white bar today.Also look for trendlines, more on going upwards.
Happy trading!
10.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time
A few days back , I tried to post my forecast to my blog but it did not get through. I just wonder why?
Since the market is about to open in just a few minutes more, I do not think I will be able to do any detail forecasting today.
According to Japanese candle stick, the bar for yesterday's was a hammer. In this situation, it is believed that the bar indicates the reversal pattern. Sometimes it turns to be the other way round.Most investors like this bar, anyway it will depend on the opening. If the opening is higher than yesterday's highest, the probablity is that the market will end a white bar, but in the early part of the trading, the market may be moving southwards. If opens too high, it is hard to say.Also if the market opens within the body of yesterday's ( more towards to the highest of yesterday ) and later moves up beating yesterday's highest ( better if it beats 4 to 10 points above yesterday's highest), it may end with a white bar today.Also look for trendlines, more on going upwards.
Happy trading!
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
White Bar This Time?
Tuesday - 1 April 2008
The market open at 3430 and closed at 3395. The highest was at 3490 and the lowest was at 3390. A different of 100 points.
Since I did not make any forecasting for a few days back, I prefer not to make any comment.
Today
For the last 3 days the market have been filled with the black bars, do you think the market today will be a white one ? It could be yes or could be no, it depends on where the market opens today and the direction of the market immediately after opening and also the minimum points of it's retracement or going up. Those who have been following my blog , probably may have some ideas on how to go about forecasting the market today.
Today's trading is a real day not April Fool's !
So have a nice trading !
9.40 a.m. - Malaysian Time
The market open at 3430 and closed at 3395. The highest was at 3490 and the lowest was at 3390. A different of 100 points.
Since I did not make any forecasting for a few days back, I prefer not to make any comment.
Today
For the last 3 days the market have been filled with the black bars, do you think the market today will be a white one ? It could be yes or could be no, it depends on where the market opens today and the direction of the market immediately after opening and also the minimum points of it's retracement or going up. Those who have been following my blog , probably may have some ideas on how to go about forecasting the market today.
Today's trading is a real day not April Fool's !
So have a nice trading !
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Friday
Friday - 28 March 2008
12.25 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market open at 3640 and also closed at 3640. The highest was at 3670 and the lowest was at 3555.
Just like I mentioned yesterday, ( refer to #1 ), after opening at 3640 and at about 11.00 a.m. , the market went up to the highest level at 3670. There was a trendline pattern established here but the pattern ( 3 tops ) was not a clear one ( in this respect , experience is important ). Had a sell been put here, a very handsome profits would have been made.After passing the level 3585, the market did bounce back at 3556 , just like I forecasted yesterday, and later moved up to the closing of the day at 3640. I expected the market to be at least a small black bar since it did not break the level between 3545 to 3530. The closing ,according to candle stick, is said to be in the indecision situation.
There was a very clear but a big pattern of 3 bottoms formed at about 4.00 p.m. Those who had put a buy here and the stop loss of between 10 to 15 points might have suffered a loss but if a bigger stop loss had been placed between 10 to 25 points, then a very handsome profits could also have been able to be made.
Today
For some reasons, I am not able to make any forecast today.
Have a nice trading!
12.25 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market open at 3640 and also closed at 3640. The highest was at 3670 and the lowest was at 3555.
Just like I mentioned yesterday, ( refer to #1 ), after opening at 3640 and at about 11.00 a.m. , the market went up to the highest level at 3670. There was a trendline pattern established here but the pattern ( 3 tops ) was not a clear one ( in this respect , experience is important ). Had a sell been put here, a very handsome profits would have been made.After passing the level 3585, the market did bounce back at 3556 , just like I forecasted yesterday, and later moved up to the closing of the day at 3640. I expected the market to be at least a small black bar since it did not break the level between 3545 to 3530. The closing ,according to candle stick, is said to be in the indecision situation.
There was a very clear but a big pattern of 3 bottoms formed at about 4.00 p.m. Those who had put a buy here and the stop loss of between 10 to 15 points might have suffered a loss but if a bigger stop loss had been placed between 10 to 25 points, then a very handsome profits could also have been able to be made.
Today
For some reasons, I am not able to make any forecast today.
Have a nice trading!
Thursday's Direction
Thursday - 27 March 2008
9.35 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Before I forget, yesterday I happened to have a teleconversation with a friend of mine who is a CEO of one of the Felda's subsidiaries ( Felda is an established organisation which involved extensively in oil palm plantation and production through a communal system ). I would appreciate if he could contribute some information regarding the palm oil's matters which may probably help us in making decision on the palm oil's futures market. Later in the evening, I managed to meet a friend who is, at this point of time, a lecturer at one of the prominent universities in Malaysia. He also trades in stock market on part time basis and has quite a good knowledge in the futures market as well.
Yesterday, the market open at 3560 and closed at 3700. The highest was at 3700 and the lowest was at 3550.
The market open not within the frame that I have analysed but it did move up passing the level 3616 and a white bar was formed at the end of the trading day ( see #2 on yesterday's analysis). This would mean that the sidelines phenomena, in my opinion, is over. The market is said to be in, very short term, the bullish sentiment. ( or could the market be in a new sidelines level ?)
There were also a very clear formation of 3 tops ( in fact 7 acending tops + 3 flat tops - sell position here ) and 3 bottoms pattern ( buy position ) . The 3 tops pattern was formed between 3.00 p.m. to 3.30 p.m and 3 bottoms was between 4.40 p.m. to 5.oo p.m.Those who have taken the position here would have made quite a huge profits especially at the 3 bottoms position.
Today
How about today? As I said just now the market , in very short term, is bullish. Since the opening of the market yesterday was at a higher level ( more than 40 points of the closing of the day before ) and also closed even at a higher level, I would probably forecast that if the opening today is within the body of yesterday's bar, the market may end with a black bar. My analysis;
1) If the market opens above the level 3610 , look for trendlines, such as head and shoulder, 3 tops , diamand formation etc, especially if it forms at a higher level than the opening of the day.If you see any pattern here, just put a sell. If the market retraces down passing the level 3585, the market may rebounce back at certain level but if it keeps going down further passing the level between 3545 to 3530, the market may drift further down and a black bar would be formed today. ( words of reminder , see # 4 below )
2) If the market opens below 3584 and starts to move up to about 17 to 37 points, put a sell here.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 10 to 30 points. If the market keeps falling further down passing the level between 3545 to 3530, refer to # 1 as above.
3) If the market opens at 3520 and below, the market may end a white bar today. Look for trendlines such as 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder etc..especially at a lower end than opening of the day
4) Just words of reminder, if the market opens at any point especially near the close of yesterday and starts to move up passing the point 3700 or open higher than 3700 , be careful, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.If this happens, the market is said to be confirming it bullishness
5) If the market opens not within that I have mentioned as above, it's your call
6) As usual, I may be wrong, and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt, well consult your neighbours.....er I mean your broker.
Hav a nais treding dey!
9.35 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Before I forget, yesterday I happened to have a teleconversation with a friend of mine who is a CEO of one of the Felda's subsidiaries ( Felda is an established organisation which involved extensively in oil palm plantation and production through a communal system ). I would appreciate if he could contribute some information regarding the palm oil's matters which may probably help us in making decision on the palm oil's futures market. Later in the evening, I managed to meet a friend who is, at this point of time, a lecturer at one of the prominent universities in Malaysia. He also trades in stock market on part time basis and has quite a good knowledge in the futures market as well.
Yesterday, the market open at 3560 and closed at 3700. The highest was at 3700 and the lowest was at 3550.
The market open not within the frame that I have analysed but it did move up passing the level 3616 and a white bar was formed at the end of the trading day ( see #2 on yesterday's analysis). This would mean that the sidelines phenomena, in my opinion, is over. The market is said to be in, very short term, the bullish sentiment. ( or could the market be in a new sidelines level ?)
There were also a very clear formation of 3 tops ( in fact 7 acending tops + 3 flat tops - sell position here ) and 3 bottoms pattern ( buy position ) . The 3 tops pattern was formed between 3.00 p.m. to 3.30 p.m and 3 bottoms was between 4.40 p.m. to 5.oo p.m.Those who have taken the position here would have made quite a huge profits especially at the 3 bottoms position.
Today
How about today? As I said just now the market , in very short term, is bullish. Since the opening of the market yesterday was at a higher level ( more than 40 points of the closing of the day before ) and also closed even at a higher level, I would probably forecast that if the opening today is within the body of yesterday's bar, the market may end with a black bar. My analysis;
1) If the market opens above the level 3610 , look for trendlines, such as head and shoulder, 3 tops , diamand formation etc, especially if it forms at a higher level than the opening of the day.If you see any pattern here, just put a sell. If the market retraces down passing the level 3585, the market may rebounce back at certain level but if it keeps going down further passing the level between 3545 to 3530, the market may drift further down and a black bar would be formed today. ( words of reminder , see # 4 below )
2) If the market opens below 3584 and starts to move up to about 17 to 37 points, put a sell here.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 10 to 30 points. If the market keeps falling further down passing the level between 3545 to 3530, refer to # 1 as above.
3) If the market opens at 3520 and below, the market may end a white bar today. Look for trendlines such as 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder etc..especially at a lower end than opening of the day
4) Just words of reminder, if the market opens at any point especially near the close of yesterday and starts to move up passing the point 3700 or open higher than 3700 , be careful, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.If this happens, the market is said to be confirming it bullishness
5) If the market opens not within that I have mentioned as above, it's your call
6) As usual, I may be wrong, and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt, well consult your neighbours.....er I mean your broker.
Hav a nais treding dey!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
It Is Still Here
Wednesday - 26 March
9.00 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday the market open at 3388 and closed at 3500. The highest was at 3501 and the lowest was at 3380.
Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's performance, so let's move to today's forecast.
Today
From the last 5 day's performances, the market clearly shows that it is still in the sidelines situation. In this situation, as I mentioned earlier, the strategy used should be the contrarian strategy i.e. you buy when the sign gives the signal to sell and vise versa. Unless the level between 3613 to 3620 or the level between 3150 to 3160 are broken, then I would foresee a new and clearer direction would be recognised. My analysis ;
1) If the market opens between 3428 to 3490 and later moves up beating the level 3505 ( it may not even reach this level ), the market may go up further but at certain point, it will retrace down ( here look for trendlines to sell ) but if the market moves further up and beats the level 3613, the market may moves further up and a white may be formed at the end of the day.( If this happens, the sidelines could probably be over, if not the market will still be sidelines )
2) If the market opens below 3426 and later beats down the level 3410, it may retrace further. If it beats down again the level 3375 and below, the market may retrace further down and may bounce back ( look for trendlines to buy here ). But if the market keep retracing down and passes the level 3320 , the market may ends a black bar today.( If this hapopens, the sidelis may be over, if not the sidelines will persist )
3) If the market opens between 3380 to 3501 , then start moving up, refer to #1 as above or starts moving down, refer #2 as above
4) If the market opens above 3505, it is your call
5) If the market opens at 3375 and below, it is your call
6) In sidelines situation, the usage of trendlines give better result than using other methods.
That's it, I may be wrong again. Not sure, contact your broker.
9.00 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday the market open at 3388 and closed at 3500. The highest was at 3501 and the lowest was at 3380.
Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's performance, so let's move to today's forecast.
Today
From the last 5 day's performances, the market clearly shows that it is still in the sidelines situation. In this situation, as I mentioned earlier, the strategy used should be the contrarian strategy i.e. you buy when the sign gives the signal to sell and vise versa. Unless the level between 3613 to 3620 or the level between 3150 to 3160 are broken, then I would foresee a new and clearer direction would be recognised. My analysis ;
1) If the market opens between 3428 to 3490 and later moves up beating the level 3505 ( it may not even reach this level ), the market may go up further but at certain point, it will retrace down ( here look for trendlines to sell ) but if the market moves further up and beats the level 3613, the market may moves further up and a white may be formed at the end of the day.( If this happens, the sidelines could probably be over, if not the market will still be sidelines )
2) If the market opens below 3426 and later beats down the level 3410, it may retrace further. If it beats down again the level 3375 and below, the market may retrace further down and may bounce back ( look for trendlines to buy here ). But if the market keep retracing down and passes the level 3320 , the market may ends a black bar today.( If this hapopens, the sidelis may be over, if not the sidelines will persist )
3) If the market opens between 3380 to 3501 , then start moving up, refer to #1 as above or starts moving down, refer #2 as above
4) If the market opens above 3505, it is your call
5) If the market opens at 3375 and below, it is your call
6) In sidelines situation, the usage of trendlines give better result than using other methods.
That's it, I may be wrong again. Not sure, contact your broker.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Period of Uncertainty ( Still continue?)
Tuesday - 25 March 2008
9.35 a.m.
Yesterday the market open at 3415 and closed at 3340. The highest was at 3541 and the lowest was at 3328.
If you look at my forecast yesterday ( #2), the market did go up and later fell down passing by the opening level except that it did not end a white bar and the break away level that I predicted (3470 to 3490 ) did not materialise. In fact after breaking these level , the market went up further and after reaching 3505, it fell to the level at 3452.Later it moved up again to the highest level of the day before retracing down again almost to lowest of the day . In day trading, what you are interested is in making profits ( sometimes big and sometimes small) as fast possible and later you just simply leave the market. You can do this 2 or 3 times a day.
In theory, if you had put a buy after 3490 ( expecting the market to go up further - just like my forecast ) you would still manage to make profits but in practise , you might end up losing money unless if your stop loss point is big. Besides that there were clear formation of 3 tops ( actually 4 tops ) after 11.00 a.m., a false one after 3.30p.m and another clear formation of 3 tops ( many tops ?) after 5.00 p.m.
Today
This morning I found that there were some mistakes with my graphs and charts ( I am not making any execuses ) so I decided not to make any forecasting today. To small investors, if you are not ready to put a stop loss of between 20 to 40 points then it is better to stay away from the market. There are still days ahead where you can make profits ( even though it may not be a big one). Making small profits will make you stay longer in the market and be able to learn the market better rather than making big profits and later on you are phased ( spelling?)out without any trace.
Have a nice trading day
9.35 a.m.
Yesterday the market open at 3415 and closed at 3340. The highest was at 3541 and the lowest was at 3328.
If you look at my forecast yesterday ( #2), the market did go up and later fell down passing by the opening level except that it did not end a white bar and the break away level that I predicted (3470 to 3490 ) did not materialise. In fact after breaking these level , the market went up further and after reaching 3505, it fell to the level at 3452.Later it moved up again to the highest level of the day before retracing down again almost to lowest of the day . In day trading, what you are interested is in making profits ( sometimes big and sometimes small) as fast possible and later you just simply leave the market. You can do this 2 or 3 times a day.
In theory, if you had put a buy after 3490 ( expecting the market to go up further - just like my forecast ) you would still manage to make profits but in practise , you might end up losing money unless if your stop loss point is big. Besides that there were clear formation of 3 tops ( actually 4 tops ) after 11.00 a.m., a false one after 3.30p.m and another clear formation of 3 tops ( many tops ?) after 5.00 p.m.
Today
This morning I found that there were some mistakes with my graphs and charts ( I am not making any execuses ) so I decided not to make any forecasting today. To small investors, if you are not ready to put a stop loss of between 20 to 40 points then it is better to stay away from the market. There are still days ahead where you can make profits ( even though it may not be a big one). Making small profits will make you stay longer in the market and be able to learn the market better rather than making big profits and later on you are phased ( spelling?)out without any trace.
Have a nice trading day
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