Thursday - 27 March 2008
9.35 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Before I forget, yesterday I happened to have a teleconversation with a friend of mine who is a CEO of one of the Felda's subsidiaries ( Felda is an established organisation which involved extensively in oil palm plantation and production through a communal system ). I would appreciate if he could contribute some information regarding the palm oil's matters which may probably help us in making decision on the palm oil's futures market. Later in the evening, I managed to meet a friend who is, at this point of time, a lecturer at one of the prominent universities in Malaysia. He also trades in stock market on part time basis and has quite a good knowledge in the futures market as well.
Yesterday, the market open at 3560 and closed at 3700. The highest was at 3700 and the lowest was at 3550.
The market open not within the frame that I have analysed but it did move up passing the level 3616 and a white bar was formed at the end of the trading day ( see #2 on yesterday's analysis). This would mean that the sidelines phenomena, in my opinion, is over. The market is said to be in, very short term, the bullish sentiment. ( or could the market be in a new sidelines level ?)
There were also a very clear formation of 3 tops ( in fact 7 acending tops + 3 flat tops - sell position here ) and 3 bottoms pattern ( buy position ) . The 3 tops pattern was formed between 3.00 p.m. to 3.30 p.m and 3 bottoms was between 4.40 p.m. to 5.oo p.m.Those who have taken the position here would have made quite a huge profits especially at the 3 bottoms position.
How about today? As I said just now the market , in very short term, is bullish. Since the opening of the market yesterday was at a higher level ( more than 40 points of the closing of the day before ) and also closed even at a higher level, I would probably forecast that if the opening today is within the body of yesterday's bar, the market may end with a black bar. My analysis;
1) If the market opens above the level 3610 , look for trendlines, such as head and shoulder, 3 tops , diamand formation etc, especially if it forms at a higher level than the opening of the day.If you see any pattern here, just put a sell. If the market retraces down passing the level 3585, the market may rebounce back at certain level but if it keeps going down further passing the level between 3545 to 3530, the market may drift further down and a black bar would be formed today. ( words of reminder , see # 4 below )
2) If the market opens below 3584 and starts to move up to about 17 to 37 points, put a sell here.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 10 to 30 points. If the market keeps falling further down passing the level between 3545 to 3530, refer to # 1 as above.
3) If the market opens at 3520 and below, the market may end a white bar today. Look for trendlines such as 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder etc..especially at a lower end than opening of the day
4) Just words of reminder, if the market opens at any point especially near the close of yesterday and starts to move up passing the point 3700 or open higher than 3700 , be careful, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.If this happens, the market is said to be confirming it bullishness
5) If the market opens not within that I have mentioned as above, it's your call
6) As usual, I may be wrong, and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt, well consult your neighbours.....er I mean your broker.
Hav a nais treding dey!