Bullish Still?

Friday - 2nd January 2009
12.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for March's contract open at 1642 and closed at 1695 last Wednesday. The highest was at 1695 and the lowest at 1639.

The market ended a white bar and was higher than the previous day . It seemed that the 'swing strategy' did not take place even though the opening of the market was more towards the lower part of the previous day white bar. The market open within the forecasted levels but did not move to the expected direction. Anyway the market did beat up the level between 1672 to 1678 ( see #2 ) and moved further up and ended a white bar. Frankly speaking, I was expecting the market to retrace after beating these levels. So will the so-call 'swing strategy' show its true colour today?

Today

In the medium term, the market is still in the bullish sentiment and so is the very very short term. My forecast for today is as follows;


1) For the past 4 days, the market has shown 4 advancing white bars in a row ( some say 3 white soildiers and an advancing soldier - see above chart) and if the market opens within the white's body of the last bar today and then retraces passing down the levels between 1638 to 1645, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the last white bar. If this happens, then the swing strategy is said to be workabale. So, what are you waiting for, just sell at these levels!
2) If the market opens between the levels 1658 to 1685. Buy after the market has dropped 7 points below the opening level. As usual, be careful of the false retracement ( false alarm). If the market manages to beat up the levels between 1696 to 1704, the market may go up further especially if the market opens more towards the upper level of the 1658-to-1685. If , on the hand, the market manages to beat down the levels between 1638 to 1645, just see # 1 above.
3) If the market opens between 1648 to 1658. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1637 to 1645. The market may fall further if these levels are broken and a black is expected to be formed at the end of the day.
4) If the market opens between 1685 to 1695. Buy after the market has passed up the levels between 1699 to 1704. Be careful, the market may fall back.
5) If the market opens between 1696 to 1719. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level. If any profits, just lock them up.
6) If the market opens between 1623 to 1647. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening level.
7) If the market opens above 1740, the market may go up further.
8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June 2008 )
9) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tip dated 1st July 2008 )


Ok Mike, that's about it. If you are not sure, just call your broker. If not you better get to know a guy from the future.....some one like the Terminator ( a good one, off course )...


Have a nice trading day!
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