Friday - 28 March 2008
12.25 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market open at 3640 and also closed at 3640. The highest was at 3670 and the lowest was at 3555.
Just like I mentioned yesterday, ( refer to #1 ), after opening at 3640 and at about 11.00 a.m. , the market went up to the highest level at 3670. There was a trendline pattern established here but the pattern ( 3 tops ) was not a clear one ( in this respect , experience is important ). Had a sell been put here, a very handsome profits would have been made.After passing the level 3585, the market did bounce back at 3556 , just like I forecasted yesterday, and later moved up to the closing of the day at 3640. I expected the market to be at least a small black bar since it did not break the level between 3545 to 3530. The closing ,according to candle stick, is said to be in the indecision situation.
There was a very clear but a big pattern of 3 bottoms formed at about 4.00 p.m. Those who had put a buy here and the stop loss of between 10 to 15 points might have suffered a loss but if a bigger stop loss had been placed between 10 to 25 points, then a very handsome profits could also have been able to be made.
Today
For some reasons, I am not able to make any forecast today.
Have a nice trading!
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Thursday's Direction
Thursday - 27 March 2008
9.35 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Before I forget, yesterday I happened to have a teleconversation with a friend of mine who is a CEO of one of the Felda's subsidiaries ( Felda is an established organisation which involved extensively in oil palm plantation and production through a communal system ). I would appreciate if he could contribute some information regarding the palm oil's matters which may probably help us in making decision on the palm oil's futures market. Later in the evening, I managed to meet a friend who is, at this point of time, a lecturer at one of the prominent universities in Malaysia. He also trades in stock market on part time basis and has quite a good knowledge in the futures market as well.
Yesterday, the market open at 3560 and closed at 3700. The highest was at 3700 and the lowest was at 3550.
The market open not within the frame that I have analysed but it did move up passing the level 3616 and a white bar was formed at the end of the trading day ( see #2 on yesterday's analysis). This would mean that the sidelines phenomena, in my opinion, is over. The market is said to be in, very short term, the bullish sentiment. ( or could the market be in a new sidelines level ?)
There were also a very clear formation of 3 tops ( in fact 7 acending tops + 3 flat tops - sell position here ) and 3 bottoms pattern ( buy position ) . The 3 tops pattern was formed between 3.00 p.m. to 3.30 p.m and 3 bottoms was between 4.40 p.m. to 5.oo p.m.Those who have taken the position here would have made quite a huge profits especially at the 3 bottoms position.
Today
How about today? As I said just now the market , in very short term, is bullish. Since the opening of the market yesterday was at a higher level ( more than 40 points of the closing of the day before ) and also closed even at a higher level, I would probably forecast that if the opening today is within the body of yesterday's bar, the market may end with a black bar. My analysis;
1) If the market opens above the level 3610 , look for trendlines, such as head and shoulder, 3 tops , diamand formation etc, especially if it forms at a higher level than the opening of the day.If you see any pattern here, just put a sell. If the market retraces down passing the level 3585, the market may rebounce back at certain level but if it keeps going down further passing the level between 3545 to 3530, the market may drift further down and a black bar would be formed today. ( words of reminder , see # 4 below )
2) If the market opens below 3584 and starts to move up to about 17 to 37 points, put a sell here.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 10 to 30 points. If the market keeps falling further down passing the level between 3545 to 3530, refer to # 1 as above.
3) If the market opens at 3520 and below, the market may end a white bar today. Look for trendlines such as 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder etc..especially at a lower end than opening of the day
4) Just words of reminder, if the market opens at any point especially near the close of yesterday and starts to move up passing the point 3700 or open higher than 3700 , be careful, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.If this happens, the market is said to be confirming it bullishness
5) If the market opens not within that I have mentioned as above, it's your call
6) As usual, I may be wrong, and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt, well consult your neighbours.....er I mean your broker.
Hav a nais treding dey!
9.35 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Before I forget, yesterday I happened to have a teleconversation with a friend of mine who is a CEO of one of the Felda's subsidiaries ( Felda is an established organisation which involved extensively in oil palm plantation and production through a communal system ). I would appreciate if he could contribute some information regarding the palm oil's matters which may probably help us in making decision on the palm oil's futures market. Later in the evening, I managed to meet a friend who is, at this point of time, a lecturer at one of the prominent universities in Malaysia. He also trades in stock market on part time basis and has quite a good knowledge in the futures market as well.
Yesterday, the market open at 3560 and closed at 3700. The highest was at 3700 and the lowest was at 3550.
The market open not within the frame that I have analysed but it did move up passing the level 3616 and a white bar was formed at the end of the trading day ( see #2 on yesterday's analysis). This would mean that the sidelines phenomena, in my opinion, is over. The market is said to be in, very short term, the bullish sentiment. ( or could the market be in a new sidelines level ?)
There were also a very clear formation of 3 tops ( in fact 7 acending tops + 3 flat tops - sell position here ) and 3 bottoms pattern ( buy position ) . The 3 tops pattern was formed between 3.00 p.m. to 3.30 p.m and 3 bottoms was between 4.40 p.m. to 5.oo p.m.Those who have taken the position here would have made quite a huge profits especially at the 3 bottoms position.
Today
How about today? As I said just now the market , in very short term, is bullish. Since the opening of the market yesterday was at a higher level ( more than 40 points of the closing of the day before ) and also closed even at a higher level, I would probably forecast that if the opening today is within the body of yesterday's bar, the market may end with a black bar. My analysis;
1) If the market opens above the level 3610 , look for trendlines, such as head and shoulder, 3 tops , diamand formation etc, especially if it forms at a higher level than the opening of the day.If you see any pattern here, just put a sell. If the market retraces down passing the level 3585, the market may rebounce back at certain level but if it keeps going down further passing the level between 3545 to 3530, the market may drift further down and a black bar would be formed today. ( words of reminder , see # 4 below )
2) If the market opens below 3584 and starts to move up to about 17 to 37 points, put a sell here.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 10 to 30 points. If the market keeps falling further down passing the level between 3545 to 3530, refer to # 1 as above.
3) If the market opens at 3520 and below, the market may end a white bar today. Look for trendlines such as 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder etc..especially at a lower end than opening of the day
4) Just words of reminder, if the market opens at any point especially near the close of yesterday and starts to move up passing the point 3700 or open higher than 3700 , be careful, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today.If this happens, the market is said to be confirming it bullishness
5) If the market opens not within that I have mentioned as above, it's your call
6) As usual, I may be wrong, and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt, well consult your neighbours.....er I mean your broker.
Hav a nais treding dey!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
It Is Still Here
Wednesday - 26 March
9.00 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday the market open at 3388 and closed at 3500. The highest was at 3501 and the lowest was at 3380.
Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's performance, so let's move to today's forecast.
Today
From the last 5 day's performances, the market clearly shows that it is still in the sidelines situation. In this situation, as I mentioned earlier, the strategy used should be the contrarian strategy i.e. you buy when the sign gives the signal to sell and vise versa. Unless the level between 3613 to 3620 or the level between 3150 to 3160 are broken, then I would foresee a new and clearer direction would be recognised. My analysis ;
1) If the market opens between 3428 to 3490 and later moves up beating the level 3505 ( it may not even reach this level ), the market may go up further but at certain point, it will retrace down ( here look for trendlines to sell ) but if the market moves further up and beats the level 3613, the market may moves further up and a white may be formed at the end of the day.( If this happens, the sidelines could probably be over, if not the market will still be sidelines )
2) If the market opens below 3426 and later beats down the level 3410, it may retrace further. If it beats down again the level 3375 and below, the market may retrace further down and may bounce back ( look for trendlines to buy here ). But if the market keep retracing down and passes the level 3320 , the market may ends a black bar today.( If this hapopens, the sidelis may be over, if not the sidelines will persist )
3) If the market opens between 3380 to 3501 , then start moving up, refer to #1 as above or starts moving down, refer #2 as above
4) If the market opens above 3505, it is your call
5) If the market opens at 3375 and below, it is your call
6) In sidelines situation, the usage of trendlines give better result than using other methods.
That's it, I may be wrong again. Not sure, contact your broker.
9.00 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday the market open at 3388 and closed at 3500. The highest was at 3501 and the lowest was at 3380.
Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's performance, so let's move to today's forecast.
Today
From the last 5 day's performances, the market clearly shows that it is still in the sidelines situation. In this situation, as I mentioned earlier, the strategy used should be the contrarian strategy i.e. you buy when the sign gives the signal to sell and vise versa. Unless the level between 3613 to 3620 or the level between 3150 to 3160 are broken, then I would foresee a new and clearer direction would be recognised. My analysis ;
1) If the market opens between 3428 to 3490 and later moves up beating the level 3505 ( it may not even reach this level ), the market may go up further but at certain point, it will retrace down ( here look for trendlines to sell ) but if the market moves further up and beats the level 3613, the market may moves further up and a white may be formed at the end of the day.( If this happens, the sidelines could probably be over, if not the market will still be sidelines )
2) If the market opens below 3426 and later beats down the level 3410, it may retrace further. If it beats down again the level 3375 and below, the market may retrace further down and may bounce back ( look for trendlines to buy here ). But if the market keep retracing down and passes the level 3320 , the market may ends a black bar today.( If this hapopens, the sidelis may be over, if not the sidelines will persist )
3) If the market opens between 3380 to 3501 , then start moving up, refer to #1 as above or starts moving down, refer #2 as above
4) If the market opens above 3505, it is your call
5) If the market opens at 3375 and below, it is your call
6) In sidelines situation, the usage of trendlines give better result than using other methods.
That's it, I may be wrong again. Not sure, contact your broker.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Period of Uncertainty ( Still continue?)
Tuesday - 25 March 2008
9.35 a.m.
Yesterday the market open at 3415 and closed at 3340. The highest was at 3541 and the lowest was at 3328.
If you look at my forecast yesterday ( #2), the market did go up and later fell down passing by the opening level except that it did not end a white bar and the break away level that I predicted (3470 to 3490 ) did not materialise. In fact after breaking these level , the market went up further and after reaching 3505, it fell to the level at 3452.Later it moved up again to the highest level of the day before retracing down again almost to lowest of the day . In day trading, what you are interested is in making profits ( sometimes big and sometimes small) as fast possible and later you just simply leave the market. You can do this 2 or 3 times a day.
In theory, if you had put a buy after 3490 ( expecting the market to go up further - just like my forecast ) you would still manage to make profits but in practise , you might end up losing money unless if your stop loss point is big. Besides that there were clear formation of 3 tops ( actually 4 tops ) after 11.00 a.m., a false one after 3.30p.m and another clear formation of 3 tops ( many tops ?) after 5.00 p.m.
Today
This morning I found that there were some mistakes with my graphs and charts ( I am not making any execuses ) so I decided not to make any forecasting today. To small investors, if you are not ready to put a stop loss of between 20 to 40 points then it is better to stay away from the market. There are still days ahead where you can make profits ( even though it may not be a big one). Making small profits will make you stay longer in the market and be able to learn the market better rather than making big profits and later on you are phased ( spelling?)out without any trace.
Have a nice trading day
9.35 a.m.
Yesterday the market open at 3415 and closed at 3340. The highest was at 3541 and the lowest was at 3328.
If you look at my forecast yesterday ( #2), the market did go up and later fell down passing by the opening level except that it did not end a white bar and the break away level that I predicted (3470 to 3490 ) did not materialise. In fact after breaking these level , the market went up further and after reaching 3505, it fell to the level at 3452.Later it moved up again to the highest level of the day before retracing down again almost to lowest of the day . In day trading, what you are interested is in making profits ( sometimes big and sometimes small) as fast possible and later you just simply leave the market. You can do this 2 or 3 times a day.
In theory, if you had put a buy after 3490 ( expecting the market to go up further - just like my forecast ) you would still manage to make profits but in practise , you might end up losing money unless if your stop loss point is big. Besides that there were clear formation of 3 tops ( actually 4 tops ) after 11.00 a.m., a false one after 3.30p.m and another clear formation of 3 tops ( many tops ?) after 5.00 p.m.
Today
This morning I found that there were some mistakes with my graphs and charts ( I am not making any execuses ) so I decided not to make any forecasting today. To small investors, if you are not ready to put a stop loss of between 20 to 40 points then it is better to stay away from the market. There are still days ahead where you can make profits ( even though it may not be a big one). Making small profits will make you stay longer in the market and be able to learn the market better rather than making big profits and later on you are phased ( spelling?)out without any trace.
Have a nice trading day
Monday, March 24, 2008
Period of Uncertainty?
Monday - 24 March 2008
9.25 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Last Friday the market open at 3225 and closed at 3330. The highest was at 3409 and the lowest was at 3179.Since I did not make any speculation prior to Friday, I deserve not to make any comment on the matter.
Today
From my observation, I would say that the market is in the period of uncertainty or sideline. In this situation, normally, the startegy used would be the contrarian strategy which means you buy when the chart or grph shows that it is the signal to sell and vise versa.This can be seen clearly for the last 3 days of trading. So I would figure the market is still in the period of uncertainty, unless if the level 3150 is broken down or the level 3490 is broken up.Either or , if these level are broken , the market would show a new direction. It could be today, tomorrow etc...It hards to figure out at this moment. Anyway, I would still like to speculate for today's market ;
1) If the market opens between 3305 and below and then breaks down the level 3290, the market may go down further ( normally in the middle or later part of the trading ) to a certain level and may go up ( rebounce - here look for trendlines before taking any position) and may pass up the opening level. If the market moves further down ( do not rebounce ) and passes the level between 3190 to 3150, the market may even go further down and a black bar could happen at the end of the trading day.
2) If the market opens at 3397 and above and breaks the level between 3414 to 3424, it may go up further but at certain level, the market may fall down ( here look for trendlines before taking any position )and may pass down the opening level. If the market moves further up passing the level between 3470 to 3490 , the market may even go up further and may end a white bar today.
3 ) If the market opens between the two of the above, the market may be choppy unless if it beats down 3305 ( refer to #1 as above) or if beats above 3397 ( then refer to #2 as above).
That's about it. As usual, it is only my speculation, if you are not sure, contact your Associate Prof at UKM ....er I mean your broker or stay out of the market. If you cannot make money today, there are always another day to look forward.
Have a nice trading.
9.25 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Last Friday the market open at 3225 and closed at 3330. The highest was at 3409 and the lowest was at 3179.Since I did not make any speculation prior to Friday, I deserve not to make any comment on the matter.
Today
From my observation, I would say that the market is in the period of uncertainty or sideline. In this situation, normally, the startegy used would be the contrarian strategy which means you buy when the chart or grph shows that it is the signal to sell and vise versa.This can be seen clearly for the last 3 days of trading. So I would figure the market is still in the period of uncertainty, unless if the level 3150 is broken down or the level 3490 is broken up.Either or , if these level are broken , the market would show a new direction. It could be today, tomorrow etc...It hards to figure out at this moment. Anyway, I would still like to speculate for today's market ;
1) If the market opens between 3305 and below and then breaks down the level 3290, the market may go down further ( normally in the middle or later part of the trading ) to a certain level and may go up ( rebounce - here look for trendlines before taking any position) and may pass up the opening level. If the market moves further down ( do not rebounce ) and passes the level between 3190 to 3150, the market may even go further down and a black bar could happen at the end of the trading day.
2) If the market opens at 3397 and above and breaks the level between 3414 to 3424, it may go up further but at certain level, the market may fall down ( here look for trendlines before taking any position )and may pass down the opening level. If the market moves further up passing the level between 3470 to 3490 , the market may even go up further and may end a white bar today.
3 ) If the market opens between the two of the above, the market may be choppy unless if it beats down 3305 ( refer to #1 as above) or if beats above 3397 ( then refer to #2 as above).
That's about it. As usual, it is only my speculation, if you are not sure, contact your Associate Prof at UKM ....er I mean your broker or stay out of the market. If you cannot make money today, there are always another day to look forward.
Have a nice trading.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
What's Next?
Wednesday - 19th March 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market open at 3390 and closed at 3450. The highest was at 3450 and the lowest was at 3171.
It was a quite surprise for the market to open so low at about 250 points from the last traded bar.So was the annoucement made by the PM regarding the new cabinet line-up.
Any way yesterday , I did mention that if the market open below 3510, the market might retrace further down and might end up a white bar at the end of the day. It did but , due to some reasons, I did not really follow through the market. In fact after about 10 minutes of opening, I decided to close my computer and took my sweet time to go elsewhere. So I was not in the position to know whether there has been any clear formation of trendlines or not. In other words I did not do any trading yesterday.
Today's forecasting
In mid term to long run, the market is still in bearish situation but in a very short term, the market is in the bullish sentiment at least at this very moment before the opening of the market. So as for today, I am not going to forecast anything. Those who have been following my blog may probably have the idea of how to enter the market. To small investors, if the spread between sell and buy is high (or the movement per tick is between 5 to 10 points ), then it is better for you to stay away from the market.Unless if you have a big bucks in your pockets then you can still try your luck. So good luck everybody!
8.50 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market open at 3390 and closed at 3450. The highest was at 3450 and the lowest was at 3171.
It was a quite surprise for the market to open so low at about 250 points from the last traded bar.So was the annoucement made by the PM regarding the new cabinet line-up.
Any way yesterday , I did mention that if the market open below 3510, the market might retrace further down and might end up a white bar at the end of the day. It did but , due to some reasons, I did not really follow through the market. In fact after about 10 minutes of opening, I decided to close my computer and took my sweet time to go elsewhere. So I was not in the position to know whether there has been any clear formation of trendlines or not. In other words I did not do any trading yesterday.
Today's forecasting
In mid term to long run, the market is still in bearish situation but in a very short term, the market is in the bullish sentiment at least at this very moment before the opening of the market. So as for today, I am not going to forecast anything. Those who have been following my blog may probably have the idea of how to enter the market. To small investors, if the spread between sell and buy is high (or the movement per tick is between 5 to 10 points ), then it is better for you to stay away from the market.Unless if you have a big bucks in your pockets then you can still try your luck. So good luck everybody!
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Tuesday ( 18/3/2008)
Tuesday - 18 March 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday the market open at 3580 ( June's contract) and closed at 3600. The highest was at 3604 and the lowest was at 3515. In actuality, the market closed lower but it was a white bar.
Yesterday, there were 2 clear patterns of inverted head and shoulder (or 3 bottoms) which formed at 11.30a.m. to 12.00 p.m.Another pattern was the 3 tops which formed at 3.30 p.m. Those who had taken the short position would have been making quite a profits then.
Today
I would still say, in mid term, the market is in the bearish situation, but a very short term would suggest that the market is in bullish sentiment now. If the market manages to break the level between 3531 to 3510 and below or open below 3532 the market would retrace further down. So my forecast are as follows ;
1) If the market opens between 3548 to 3607, put a buy after the market falls to the level of between 11 to 25 points after opening. Donot forget to put a stop loss of about 15 to 20 points. The best is, after opening, the market goes up a little bit and then starts to retrace down to the suggested level.If , after opening, the level of retracement ( between 11 to 25 points ) breaks the level 3532, just be careful, the market may retrace further down.If this happens, just stay away from the market a little a while or you can decide to sell if you like.There is a strategy to sell here because the risk is considered quite high here ( if not sure , just ignore for a moment )
2)If the market opens between 3608 to 3630, let the market falls a little bit and later if it goes up 3 to 5 points after the opening, put a buy here. Put a stop loss here. If you make a small profits, just sell!
3) If the market opens above 3633, the market may ends in a black bar today or at least the market may retrace down in the early part of the trading.
4) If the market opens between 3510 to 3531, let the market goes up to the level of between 12 to 20 points (after opening off course,) and then place a short here. Don't forget stop loss. If the market beats down the level 3510 the market may retrace down further down.
5) If the market opens below 3510 , it may retrace further down but it could be a white bar at the end of the day
6) As usual , if you do not make any entry after opening, you can look for a clear pattern of trendlines to enter the market or look for a "calm" situation normally around 11.30 a.m. or 3.30 p.m. ( There is another strategy to be used here )
Well, this is my speculation of the day, I may be right and I may be wrong. If you are not sure, contact your librarian...oops...your broker.
Hav a nais treding!
9.15 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday the market open at 3580 ( June's contract) and closed at 3600. The highest was at 3604 and the lowest was at 3515. In actuality, the market closed lower but it was a white bar.
Yesterday, there were 2 clear patterns of inverted head and shoulder (or 3 bottoms) which formed at 11.30a.m. to 12.00 p.m.Another pattern was the 3 tops which formed at 3.30 p.m. Those who had taken the short position would have been making quite a profits then.
Today
I would still say, in mid term, the market is in the bearish situation, but a very short term would suggest that the market is in bullish sentiment now. If the market manages to break the level between 3531 to 3510 and below or open below 3532 the market would retrace further down. So my forecast are as follows ;
1) If the market opens between 3548 to 3607, put a buy after the market falls to the level of between 11 to 25 points after opening. Donot forget to put a stop loss of about 15 to 20 points. The best is, after opening, the market goes up a little bit and then starts to retrace down to the suggested level.If , after opening, the level of retracement ( between 11 to 25 points ) breaks the level 3532, just be careful, the market may retrace further down.If this happens, just stay away from the market a little a while or you can decide to sell if you like.There is a strategy to sell here because the risk is considered quite high here ( if not sure , just ignore for a moment )
2)If the market opens between 3608 to 3630, let the market falls a little bit and later if it goes up 3 to 5 points after the opening, put a buy here. Put a stop loss here. If you make a small profits, just sell!
3) If the market opens above 3633, the market may ends in a black bar today or at least the market may retrace down in the early part of the trading.
4) If the market opens between 3510 to 3531, let the market goes up to the level of between 12 to 20 points (after opening off course,) and then place a short here. Don't forget stop loss. If the market beats down the level 3510 the market may retrace down further down.
5) If the market opens below 3510 , it may retrace further down but it could be a white bar at the end of the day
6) As usual , if you do not make any entry after opening, you can look for a clear pattern of trendlines to enter the market or look for a "calm" situation normally around 11.30 a.m. or 3.30 p.m. ( There is another strategy to be used here )
Well, this is my speculation of the day, I may be right and I may be wrong. If you are not sure, contact your librarian...oops...your broker.
Hav a nais treding!
Monday, March 17, 2008
Monday's Direction
Monday - 17 Mac 2008
9.20 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market on Friday open at 3798 and closed at 3686. The highest of the day was at 3837 and the lowest was at 3670.
The market open not within the range which I have mentioned earlier on ( between 3807 to 3900 ) but open under the level of 3805 which , on later part, retraced further down after beating the level 3788 just like what I have mentioned last Friday.
The market open at 3798 and then started to retrace down to 24 points and then moved up to the highest of the day at 3837 and then moved down and closed almost to the lowest of the day.The movement of the market, in the early part of the trading day, was tally to my prediction except that the opening was not within the range of my speculation.There was also a clear formation of 3 tops, the 3rd top was between 11.00 a.m. to 11.30 a.m. This formation also looked like the formation of head and shoulder except the second shoulder was not that prominent. Those who had taken a short at this 3rd top might have made quite a handsome profits.There was also a "calm" period from 4.00 p.m. to 4.30 p.m. which looked like the market was about to go up. At this point, if a buy position were to be placed , a loss could have occured. On the whole the market was volatile and the spread between buy and sell was quite high between 3 to 10 points.
Today.
Earlier on , I said the market was in a consolidation or sidelines phase unless if the level 3680 was broken. In fact this level was broken at the end of the trading on last Friday. So I would say the market now is in bearish situation and the sidelines phase could be over. So today I expect the market would retrace further down, at least in the early part of the day ,and could end up a black bar. Anyway,If the market today ends a white bar and closes above 3700, the sidelines may still be around. As for today, those who have been following my blog would probably have the idea of how to enter the market. So good luck!
P/s. I received an e-mail asking me about the fisrt beating and lightning strategies.
Since this blog is limited in its capacity where the need to draw charts is not possible, I think I am not able to explain , at
least, for the time being.
9.20 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market on Friday open at 3798 and closed at 3686. The highest of the day was at 3837 and the lowest was at 3670.
The market open not within the range which I have mentioned earlier on ( between 3807 to 3900 ) but open under the level of 3805 which , on later part, retraced further down after beating the level 3788 just like what I have mentioned last Friday.
The market open at 3798 and then started to retrace down to 24 points and then moved up to the highest of the day at 3837 and then moved down and closed almost to the lowest of the day.The movement of the market, in the early part of the trading day, was tally to my prediction except that the opening was not within the range of my speculation.There was also a clear formation of 3 tops, the 3rd top was between 11.00 a.m. to 11.30 a.m. This formation also looked like the formation of head and shoulder except the second shoulder was not that prominent. Those who had taken a short at this 3rd top might have made quite a handsome profits.There was also a "calm" period from 4.00 p.m. to 4.30 p.m. which looked like the market was about to go up. At this point, if a buy position were to be placed , a loss could have occured. On the whole the market was volatile and the spread between buy and sell was quite high between 3 to 10 points.
Today.
Earlier on , I said the market was in a consolidation or sidelines phase unless if the level 3680 was broken. In fact this level was broken at the end of the trading on last Friday. So I would say the market now is in bearish situation and the sidelines phase could be over. So today I expect the market would retrace further down, at least in the early part of the day ,and could end up a black bar. Anyway,If the market today ends a white bar and closes above 3700, the sidelines may still be around. As for today, those who have been following my blog would probably have the idea of how to enter the market. So good luck!
P/s. I received an e-mail asking me about the fisrt beating and lightning strategies.
Since this blog is limited in its capacity where the need to draw charts is not possible, I think I am not able to explain , at
least, for the time being.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Friday's Market Movement
Friday 14 Mac 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market yesterday open at 3764 and closed at 3798. The highest was at 3875 and the lowest was at 3723.
The market open within the range which I have forecasted but ,after opening, the market went up not to the expected level. The market went up only for 7 points ( not 14 points to 30 points ). It later went down in a fast rate breaking the points which I have "suggested" at 3734 ( actually 3723 ) but did not break the level 3679. Had this level been able to be broken, the market would have gone down further. In the early part of the morning , the market was in bearish situation but after touching 3723, the market started to move further up to the highest of the day at the level of 3875. There was also not a clear pattern of any trendlines that could be recognised except at 4.00 p.m. to 5.00 where there was a blur formation of head and shoulder.Those who have taken a position to sell here might have made some good profits as the market started to retrace to lowest of the day.
Today
From the movement of the market , currently, I believe the market now could possiblily be in the consolidation or sidelines manner. Unless if the market manage to break the level 3890 and above or 3680 and below then the market would be in the clear direction. Any way, I would say the market is still in the bullish sentiment, at least in the early part of trading today ( If the market opens within the range that I would be suggesting);
1) Take position if the market open within the range of 3807 to 3900. If the market open within this range, buy after the market falls 15 points to 31 points.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 15 to 20 points after your buy position.The best is to use lightning or first beating strategy to ensure to get the best possible position.
2) If the market opens below 3805 and below and later passes down the level 3792 to 3788, the market may retrace further.
3) If the market opens 3770 to to 3790, sell after the market moves up between 15 to 27 points ( after opening , off course ). Put a stop loss here.
4) If market opens below 3770, the market may ends up a white bar today.Well, you can choose to buy here if you want to but I think the risk is quite high.
That's my speculation. Not sure? Consult your doctor, er... I mean your broker. Have a nice trading
9.45 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market yesterday open at 3764 and closed at 3798. The highest was at 3875 and the lowest was at 3723.
The market open within the range which I have forecasted but ,after opening, the market went up not to the expected level. The market went up only for 7 points ( not 14 points to 30 points ). It later went down in a fast rate breaking the points which I have "suggested" at 3734 ( actually 3723 ) but did not break the level 3679. Had this level been able to be broken, the market would have gone down further. In the early part of the morning , the market was in bearish situation but after touching 3723, the market started to move further up to the highest of the day at the level of 3875. There was also not a clear pattern of any trendlines that could be recognised except at 4.00 p.m. to 5.00 where there was a blur formation of head and shoulder.Those who have taken a position to sell here might have made some good profits as the market started to retrace to lowest of the day.
Today
From the movement of the market , currently, I believe the market now could possiblily be in the consolidation or sidelines manner. Unless if the market manage to break the level 3890 and above or 3680 and below then the market would be in the clear direction. Any way, I would say the market is still in the bullish sentiment, at least in the early part of trading today ( If the market opens within the range that I would be suggesting);
1) Take position if the market open within the range of 3807 to 3900. If the market open within this range, buy after the market falls 15 points to 31 points.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 15 to 20 points after your buy position.The best is to use lightning or first beating strategy to ensure to get the best possible position.
2) If the market opens below 3805 and below and later passes down the level 3792 to 3788, the market may retrace further.
3) If the market opens 3770 to to 3790, sell after the market moves up between 15 to 27 points ( after opening , off course ). Put a stop loss here.
4) If market opens below 3770, the market may ends up a white bar today.Well, you can choose to buy here if you want to but I think the risk is quite high.
5) If no position taken after opening, look for "clear " formation of trendlines, if the pattern is not clear , just ignore them
That's my speculation. Not sure? Consult your doctor, er... I mean your broker. Have a nice trading
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
National Election and the Market
Wednesday - 12 Mac 2008
11.55 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Due to the cpo's market scenario and also to the national election held in Malaysia a few days back, which ended in a surprise result, prompted me not be able to make any speculation on the CPO's market.The price fluctuation have been very very volatile and most of the days, the range is above 100 points per day and the movement per tick is between 5 to 10 points. In some cases it shot up to even 15 to 20 points. An everage or small investor like myself may not be in the position to enter the market because of its high risks. In some event, even if you put a stop loss of 15 to 20 points it may not end up to what you may have expected especially to what had happened on 10 th of Mac 2008. The market went up to 4000 points within a few seconds. If you had a position contarary to the movemet of the market , you could have ended up poorer by a few thousands ( only by 1 lot ). So should you wait for the market to stable first or to enter as it is the time to make very big money while the market is still "active". As for me, I still like the market except that I would look for a quiter period where the movement per tick is normal.
Anyway, this is my forecast of the market for tomorrow ;
Tomorrow
I still like to say the market is still in a bearish situation;
1) Take position if the market open between the range of 3760 to 3800. Recently the market seemed to open far higher or far lower from the previous day bar. After opening and the market goes up to between 14 to 30 points, then place a sell here. Put a stop loss of between 10 to 20 points. If the movement of the market is very fast and per tick is high, just be careful. To be safe after reaching the targetted level, you can use lightning or first beating strategies.If this pattern exists then only you take the position to sell.
2) If after opening , between this range, the market moves up and beat 3821 to 3825 and above, the market may move further up especially if the level of 3880 is broken.If the market opens between the range and starts to move passing down 3234 to 3239 and below , a further downwards movement may be expected especially if the level 3697 is broken.
3) If the market opens between 3821 to 3845, the market may go up further especially if the level of 3880 is broken and a white bar can be expected tomorrow
4) If the market opens 3715 and below , the market may ends in a white bar
5) Besides the above, if no position is taken after opening, you could probably look for a clear pattern of trendlines especially "after" afternoon.
If after opening , the market is volatile and per tick movement is high, just stay away from the market.
11.55 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Due to the cpo's market scenario and also to the national election held in Malaysia a few days back, which ended in a surprise result, prompted me not be able to make any speculation on the CPO's market.The price fluctuation have been very very volatile and most of the days, the range is above 100 points per day and the movement per tick is between 5 to 10 points. In some cases it shot up to even 15 to 20 points. An everage or small investor like myself may not be in the position to enter the market because of its high risks. In some event, even if you put a stop loss of 15 to 20 points it may not end up to what you may have expected especially to what had happened on 10 th of Mac 2008. The market went up to 4000 points within a few seconds. If you had a position contarary to the movemet of the market , you could have ended up poorer by a few thousands ( only by 1 lot ). So should you wait for the market to stable first or to enter as it is the time to make very big money while the market is still "active". As for me, I still like the market except that I would look for a quiter period where the movement per tick is normal.
Anyway, this is my forecast of the market for tomorrow ;
Tomorrow
I still like to say the market is still in a bearish situation;
1) Take position if the market open between the range of 3760 to 3800. Recently the market seemed to open far higher or far lower from the previous day bar. After opening and the market goes up to between 14 to 30 points, then place a sell here. Put a stop loss of between 10 to 20 points. If the movement of the market is very fast and per tick is high, just be careful. To be safe after reaching the targetted level, you can use lightning or first beating strategies.If this pattern exists then only you take the position to sell.
2) If after opening , between this range, the market moves up and beat 3821 to 3825 and above, the market may move further up especially if the level of 3880 is broken.If the market opens between the range and starts to move passing down 3234 to 3239 and below , a further downwards movement may be expected especially if the level 3697 is broken.
3) If the market opens between 3821 to 3845, the market may go up further especially if the level of 3880 is broken and a white bar can be expected tomorrow
4) If the market opens 3715 and below , the market may ends in a white bar
5) Besides the above, if no position is taken after opening, you could probably look for a clear pattern of trendlines especially "after" afternoon.
If after opening , the market is volatile and per tick movement is high, just stay away from the market.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Today's Situation
Wednesday - 5 Mac 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday was the day, I believe, most speculators have been waiting for ! Everything that goes up must come down, except, off course , your age. I did say that the market would be a black bar if it open above 4355 but I did not expect the market to fall "engulfinging" the last white bar.Well, sometimes , it happens when you least expect it.
The market open at 4445 and closed at 4099. The highest was at 4486 and the lowest was at 4071. The longest fall ever seen.
Those who have not entered the market after opening of the market might probably have entered by looking at the formation of the trendlines especially focusing more on selling rather than buying.. Even so , due to the spread per tick was so high, some might have decided not to enter at all. And I believe those who had not entered the market might have regretted deeply.
Today's speculation
In normal circumtances , after a big fall, the market on the next day would be a white bar ( It depends on the opening, off course ). Even so, I would prefer to say that the market, in very short term, is in a bearish position at least in the early part of the trading day.
But due to some reasons, including I have to attend to a consultation appoinment, I am not able to make any speculation for today.
8.45 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday was the day, I believe, most speculators have been waiting for ! Everything that goes up must come down, except, off course , your age. I did say that the market would be a black bar if it open above 4355 but I did not expect the market to fall "engulfinging" the last white bar.Well, sometimes , it happens when you least expect it.
The market open at 4445 and closed at 4099. The highest was at 4486 and the lowest was at 4071. The longest fall ever seen.
Those who have not entered the market after opening of the market might probably have entered by looking at the formation of the trendlines especially focusing more on selling rather than buying.. Even so , due to the spread per tick was so high, some might have decided not to enter at all. And I believe those who had not entered the market might have regretted deeply.
Today's speculation
In normal circumtances , after a big fall, the market on the next day would be a white bar ( It depends on the opening, off course ). Even so, I would prefer to say that the market, in very short term, is in a bearish position at least in the early part of the trading day.
But due to some reasons, including I have to attend to a consultation appoinment, I am not able to make any speculation for today.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Tuesday's Forecast
Tuesday - 4 Mac 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Last Thursday, I mentioned that the market would be in sidelines phase unless the market managed to break up above 3920 or break down the level 3750. In fact on Friday , the market open above 3920 i.e. 3960. So I could foresee that the market is still in the bullish sentiment. Anyway care must be taken into account as the market is said to be in the overbought position.
Yesterday the market open at 4154 and closed at 4330. The highest was at 4332 ( the highest so far ) and the lowest was at 4231.Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's market, so I reserve my comment.
Today
As I said just now, the market is still in bullish sentiment though I think it is a little bit overbought. Some say the market went up high due to stop losses which have been placed earlier by those who have put a sell position.Further more, the market's per tick also showed quite a high spread of between 3 to 5 points, at times 10 points. This indicates that the votality is quite high and if any position is to take place, the stop loss should be between 15 to 35 points.This is a situation which gives, especially small investors like me, a very high risk unless if they are willing to take a higer risk than usual. Frankly speaking, I would rather prefer not to enter the market, just wait and see for the time being. If you still feel like wanting to enter the market, then probably you can use a strategy where you look for the movement of the market which is a little bit slow and the spread per tick is normal ( 1 point per tick ).
Any way , my forecast for today is as follows;
1) If the market opens between 4177 to 4340. After opening, if the market falls to about 30 to 40 points then a buy position can be placed here. Do not forget to put a stop loss between 15 to 35 points. The best is, let the market goes up a little bit and later falls slowly and steadily to the intended level. If you are not sure, you can use a "lightning" or "first beating"strategy to look for the best position to buy.
2) If the market opens above 4355 the market may ends up a black bar today.
3) If the market opens below 4177 and later passes down the level 4150, the market may fall further down
4) If the market opens anywhere, especially near the 4177 level and later passes the level 4150, a further drift may happen.
5) Look for a clear formation of Head and shoulder, 2 or 3 tops, etc. Here focus more on selling rather than buying.
If you are not sure today, just stay away from the market.
9.15 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Last Thursday, I mentioned that the market would be in sidelines phase unless the market managed to break up above 3920 or break down the level 3750. In fact on Friday , the market open above 3920 i.e. 3960. So I could foresee that the market is still in the bullish sentiment. Anyway care must be taken into account as the market is said to be in the overbought position.
Yesterday the market open at 4154 and closed at 4330. The highest was at 4332 ( the highest so far ) and the lowest was at 4231.Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's market, so I reserve my comment.
Today
As I said just now, the market is still in bullish sentiment though I think it is a little bit overbought. Some say the market went up high due to stop losses which have been placed earlier by those who have put a sell position.Further more, the market's per tick also showed quite a high spread of between 3 to 5 points, at times 10 points. This indicates that the votality is quite high and if any position is to take place, the stop loss should be between 15 to 35 points.This is a situation which gives, especially small investors like me, a very high risk unless if they are willing to take a higer risk than usual. Frankly speaking, I would rather prefer not to enter the market, just wait and see for the time being. If you still feel like wanting to enter the market, then probably you can use a strategy where you look for the movement of the market which is a little bit slow and the spread per tick is normal ( 1 point per tick ).
Any way , my forecast for today is as follows;
1) If the market opens between 4177 to 4340. After opening, if the market falls to about 30 to 40 points then a buy position can be placed here. Do not forget to put a stop loss between 15 to 35 points. The best is, let the market goes up a little bit and later falls slowly and steadily to the intended level. If you are not sure, you can use a "lightning" or "first beating"strategy to look for the best position to buy.
2) If the market opens above 4355 the market may ends up a black bar today.
3) If the market opens below 4177 and later passes down the level 4150, the market may fall further down
4) If the market opens anywhere, especially near the 4177 level and later passes the level 4150, a further drift may happen.
5) Look for a clear formation of Head and shoulder, 2 or 3 tops, etc. Here focus more on selling rather than buying.
If you are not sure today, just stay away from the market.
This is my speculation on today's market, I may be wrong, I have been wrong for so many times. Anyway, better consult your broker .
Happy trading !
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