Friday's Market Movement

Friday 14 Mac 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysia time zone

The market yesterday open at 3764 and closed at 3798. The highest was at 3875 and the lowest was at 3723.

The market open within the range which I have forecasted but ,after opening, the market went up not to the expected level. The market went up only for 7 points ( not 14 points to 30 points ). It later went down in a fast rate breaking the points which I have "suggested" at 3734 ( actually 3723 ) but did not break the level 3679. Had this level been able to be broken, the market would have gone down further. In the early part of the morning , the market was in bearish situation but after touching 3723, the market started to move further up to the highest of the day at the level of 3875. There was also not a clear pattern of any trendlines that could be recognised except at 4.00 p.m. to 5.00 where there was a blur formation of head and shoulder.Those who have taken a position to sell here might have made some good profits as the market started to retrace to lowest of the day.

Today

From the movement of the market , currently, I believe the market now could possiblily be in the consolidation or sidelines manner. Unless if the market manage to break the level 3890 and above or 3680 and below then the market would be in the clear direction. Any way, I would say the market is still in the bullish sentiment, at least in the early part of trading today ( If the market opens within the range that I would be suggesting);

1) Take position if the market open within the range of 3807 to 3900. If the market open within this range, buy after the market falls 15 points to 31 points.Do not forget to put your stop loss between 15 to 20 points after your buy position.The best is to use lightning or first beating strategy to ensure to get the best possible position.
2) If the market opens below 3805 and below and later passes down the level 3792 to 3788, the market may retrace further.
3) If the market opens 3770 to to 3790, sell after the market moves up between 15 to 27 points ( after opening , off course ). Put a stop loss here.
4) If market opens below 3770, the market may ends up a white bar today.Well, you can choose to buy here if you want to but I think the risk is quite high.

5) If no position taken after opening, look for "clear " formation of trendlines, if the pattern is not clear , just ignore them

That's my speculation. Not sure? Consult your doctor, er... I mean your broker. Have a nice trading

National Election and the Market

Wednesday - 12 Mac 2008
11.55 p.m. - Malaysia time zone

Due to the cpo's market scenario and also to the national election held in Malaysia a few days back, which ended in a surprise result, prompted me not be able to make any speculation on the CPO's market.The price fluctuation have been very very volatile and most of the days, the range is above 100 points per day and the movement per tick is between 5 to 10 points. In some cases it shot up to even 15 to 20 points. An everage or small investor like myself may not be in the position to enter the market because of its high risks. In some event, even if you put a stop loss of 15 to 20 points it may not end up to what you may have expected especially to what had happened on 10 th of Mac 2008. The market went up to 4000 points within a few seconds. If you had a position contarary to the movemet of the market , you could have ended up poorer by a few thousands ( only by 1 lot ). So should you wait for the market to stable first or to enter as it is the time to make very big money while the market is still "active". As for me, I still like the market except that I would look for a quiter period where the movement per tick is normal.
Anyway, this is my forecast of the market for tomorrow ;

Tomorrow

I still like to say the market is still in a bearish situation;
1) Take position if the market open between the range of 3760 to 3800. Recently the market seemed to open far higher or far lower from the previous day bar. After opening and the market goes up to between 14 to 30 points, then place a sell here. Put a stop loss of between 10 to 20 points. If the movement of the market is very fast and per tick is high, just be careful. To be safe after reaching the targetted level, you can use lightning or first beating strategies.If this pattern exists then only you take the position to sell.
2) If after opening , between this range, the market moves up and beat 3821 to 3825 and above, the market may move further up especially if the level of 3880 is broken.If the market opens between the range and starts to move passing down 3234 to 3239 and below , a further downwards movement may be expected especially if the level 3697 is broken.
3) If the market opens between 3821 to 3845, the market may go up further especially if the level of 3880 is broken and a white bar can be expected tomorrow
4) If the market opens 3715 and below , the market may ends in a white bar
5) Besides the above, if no position is taken after opening, you could probably look for a clear pattern of trendlines especially "after" afternoon.

If after opening , the market is volatile and per tick movement is high, just stay away from the market.

Today's Situation

Wednesday - 5 Mac 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysia time zone

Yesterday was the day, I believe, most speculators have been waiting for ! Everything that goes up must come down, except, off course , your age. I did say that the market would be a black bar if it open above 4355 but I did not expect the market to fall "engulfinging" the last white bar.Well, sometimes , it happens when you least expect it.

The market open at 4445 and closed at 4099. The highest was at 4486 and the lowest was at 4071. The longest fall ever seen.

Those who have not entered the market after opening of the market might probably have entered by looking at the formation of the trendlines especially focusing more on selling rather than buying.. Even so , due to the spread per tick was so high, some might have decided not to enter at all. And I believe those who had not entered the market might have regretted deeply.

Today's speculation

In normal circumtances , after a big fall, the market on the next day would be a white bar ( It depends on the opening, off course ). Even so, I would prefer to say that the market, in very short term, is in a bearish position at least in the early part of the trading day.

But due to some reasons, including I have to attend to a consultation appoinment, I am not able to make any speculation for today.

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday - 4 Mac 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysia time zone

Last Thursday, I mentioned that the market would be in sidelines phase unless the market managed to break up above 3920 or break down the level 3750. In fact on Friday , the market open above 3920 i.e. 3960. So I could foresee that the market is still in the bullish sentiment. Anyway care must be taken into account as the market is said to be in the overbought position.

Yesterday the market open at 4154 and closed at 4330. The highest was at 4332 ( the highest so far ) and the lowest was at 4231.Since I did not make any speculation on yesterday's market, so I reserve my comment.

Today

As I said just now, the market is still in bullish sentiment though I think it is a little bit overbought. Some say the market went up high due to stop losses which have been placed earlier by those who have put a sell position.Further more, the market's per tick also showed quite a high spread of between 3 to 5 points, at times 10 points. This indicates that the votality is quite high and if any position is to take place, the stop loss should be between 15 to 35 points.This is a situation which gives, especially small investors like me, a very high risk unless if they are willing to take a higer risk than usual. Frankly speaking, I would rather prefer not to enter the market, just wait and see for the time being. If you still feel like wanting to enter the market, then probably you can use a strategy where you look for the movement of the market which is a little bit slow and the spread per tick is normal ( 1 point per tick ).

Any way , my forecast for today is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 4177 to 4340. After opening, if the market falls to about 30 to 40 points then a buy position can be placed here. Do not forget to put a stop loss between 15 to 35 points. The best is, let the market goes up a little bit and later falls slowly and steadily to the intended level. If you are not sure, you can use a "lightning" or "first beating"strategy to look for the best position to buy.
2) If the market opens above 4355 the market may ends up a black bar today.
3) If the market opens below 4177 and later passes down the level 4150, the market may fall further down
4) If the market opens anywhere, especially near the 4177 level and later passes the level 4150, a further drift may happen.
5) Look for a clear formation of Head and shoulder, 2 or 3 tops, etc. Here focus more on selling rather than buying.

If you are not sure today, just stay away from the market.

This is my speculation on today's market, I may be wrong, I have been wrong for so many times. Anyway, better consult your broker .

Happy trading !

Friday's Market

Thursday - 28 Feb 2008

11.50 p.m. - Malaysia time zone

This morning at about 10.00 a.m., I tried to post to this blog regarding today's ( Thursday's speculation ) but due to interruption at blogger and blogspot's web, the publication of my posting was not successful. As far as I am concerned ,I would prefer to post my forecast before the market opens.

The market open at 3879 and closed at 3850. The highest was at 3882 and the lowest was at 3837. Since I was not able to do any forecast for today, so I think it is better for me not to say anything.

Tomorrow

The way I look at it, I think the market is in consolidation or sidelines phase. It would simply mean that if there is a signal of going up , the market would move in a different direction. If there is a signal of selling, the market instead would move to go upwards and vise versa. This can clearly be seen especially at the opening of the market. The strategy to use here is to use contrarian strategy which means buy at the point where you are supposed to sell and sell at the point when you are supposed to buy. The risk is quite high, only those who are experience in this line can figure out the right position to enter the market.For those who are not sure , just stay away from the market for a moment. The only possible way to trade in this sidelines situation is to look for clear formation of trendlines.Any way you still have to be very careful. For the time being, I am not going to make any speculation until this sideline phenomena is over.

I foresee that the market would be "moving" again if it breaks up above 3920 or breaks down below 3750. If these level are not broken , I would say the market would be moving between these range.

Wednesday's Where About

Wednesday - 27 Feb 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysia time zone

Yesterday, the market open at 3900 and closed at 3792. The highest was at 3903 and the lowest was at 3760.
After 6 consecutive days of white bars, the market decided to put a correction yesterday. Was it a correction or probably the reversal point of the bullish sentiment?

I made a loss yesterday. After opening, the market fell quite sharply but after 8 minutes, as there was a very short "consolidation period", I managed to put a buy at 3875 and also put a stop loss at 3865. Anyway the market was not in my favour . Instead the market kept pushing southwards especially after beating the level 3830, just like I mentioned yesterday. So I loss 15 points.That's it, you cannot win all the time.Besides there was also no clear formation of trendlines except before lunch break. From my experience, if the market is in the correction or reversal phase, it is better not to take any position especially if the market starts to show sign of , in this situation, going up again.

Today

It still looks like the market is still in the bullish situation;

1) At this point of time, I would prefer to say that if the market opens at 3786 and above and starts to move up and later beats the level between 3797 to 3802 then a buy position can be placed here or if the market opens at any points and later starts to move up to pass the level between 3797 to 3802, then the market is expected to move further up. If the market opens at any point but does not go up beating the level between 3797 to 3804 then the market could be in the indecision period but if the market starts to move downwards and beat the level between 3759 to 3752 then a further down could happen today. If the market opens above between 3802 to 3820 then the market may go up further.

2) Besides the above, also look for a clear pattern of trendlines which you are familiar with. If there is no clear pattern, just stay away.

Happy trading

Today's Forecast

26 Feb 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysia time zone

Yesterday ( Monday - 25th Feb) the market open at 3782 and closed at 3866. The highest ( again the highest ever recorded ) was at 3914 and the lowest was at 3776.

Since I did not make any forecast on yesterday's market so there was nothing for me to "say" today. There was also no clear formation of trendlines which could be recognised

Today

I would rather say that , in a very short term, the market is still bullish except that if the market manages to break the level 3830 and starts to decend further southwards;

1) Preferbably take position only if the market opens between 3855 to 3935 ( this is the position for bullish expectation ). If the market opens within this range and later moves downwards from 13 to 21 points from opening , then a long position can be placed here except if it passes 3853 and downwards, then there may chances that the market may retrace further down. Remember to put a stop loss between 10 to 15 points from the long position that you have taken. I received an e-mail from one of the viewer asking me the best position to buy after the market has reached the level where we are suppose to buy. Actually there is a strategy but it is quite hard for me to explain here as it needs a chart. With this strategy you can minimise the losing risk.

2) If the market opens between 3830 to 3855 and later later retraces to beat down 3830 , I would figure that the market may retrace further. Then a sell position could be placed here. There is a strategy to place a sell here in order to minimise the loss.

3) If the market opens at any point and later starts to move up passing 3920 or open above 3920 , the market may move up further. Anyway if the market opens above 3940 , it may be a black bar today

4) If no position taken after opening, then look for a clear formation of trendlines which I have mentioned earlier in my last postings but focus more on the trendlines that would signal a sell rather than a buy ( In fact you can still put a buy here but you have to look at the "trend" of the market ).

4) As usual, I am only speculating and I may be wrong. The choice is still yours.

Have a nice day and happy trading!