Bush Was Thrown With Smelly Shoes - Bad Omen For Market?

Tuesday – 16^th December 2008

7.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The crude palm oil (CPO) futures for February’s contract open at 1625 and

closed at 1576 yesterday. The highest was at 1630 and the lowest was at

1570. A difference of 60 points.

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The market open at 1625 and immediately moved up to 1630, the highest of

the day,and then retraced to 1598 before settling at 1603 before lunch. In

the afternoon, themarket went up to 1618 before falling down to the lowest

of the day at 1570 and finally closed at 1576. The market did not open

within the forecasted level of points, so nothing much to say here.

One thing to mention here is that you must not depend on one method of strategy only when it comes to placing

and existing a position, in fact you have to have multiple method of strategies and you must make sure that your

multiple strategies do not over lapse each other or else you may be in the position of confusion. So just do not

confuse yourself (may be you can confuse other people). The purpose of having more than one strategy is that if

the first strategy cannot be applied you could still have others to depend on. So a day of trading is not wasted.

Today

Since the new active month for CPO futures is March’s contract which starts today, I think I better wait for

tomorrow to do my next forecasting.

Have a nice trading day.

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Can Obama Rule in The World of White Men?

Monday - 15th December 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for February's contract open at 1650 and closed at 1581 last Friday. The highest was also at 1650 and the lowest was at 1567.
The market open within the forecasted points but did not react to what have been put forward on last Friday. Anyway the market mananged to beat down the levels between 1615 to 1622 ( see # 2) but not able to go down further after beating the levels between 1568 to 1575. ( Swing Strategy - see #7). It seemed that the Swing Strategy that I have mentioned earlier did not work well this time probably because the opening was too high up, in fact the opening was higher than the closing of the white bar on the day before ( Thursday).

Today

The market in long term is still bearish, so is the very very short term, so my forecast for today's day trading activity are as follows;

1) If the market opens between the levels 1567 to 1596. Sell after the market has moved up 8 points from the opening. Anyway if the market manages to beat the levels between 1597 to 1603, the market may go up further . Make sure that these 8 points 'distance' do not fall on to these levels after the market opens. Be careful of the false alarm and do not forget your stop loss. If the market is able to beat down the levels between 1560 to 1567, the market may fall further down.

2) If the market opens between the levels 1542 to 1567. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening.

3) If the market opens between the levels 1597 to 1620. Buy after the market has retraced a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.

4) If the market opens between 1640 to 1650. Buy after the market has moved up beating the levels between 1651 to 1658. If you see any profits , just lock them up!

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call. I don't know man......

6) Hey..what about trendlines? Have you forgotten them? Well, if you are familiar with trendlines , look for 3 Tops/bottoms or Head and shoulder/Inverted Head and Sholuder, etc.... If not, just stay away, do not waste your time and money. Money cannot be plugged from tree..you know...except, well .. palm oil's tree ( oil palm's tree? - see pivture above ), off course...

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)

8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

Well, that's about it. If not sure, do contact your dealer/broker. The forecast as above is just a matter of opinion from me...

Have a nice trading day!

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Malaysia and Indonesia Joint Meeting On Palm Oil

Friday – 12^th December 2008

8.00 a.m. – Malaysia Time

Is it true to say that, recently, the world’s equity markets have shown some positive indicators regarding the direction ? Will the market be going up again? How about the next year’s performance? Too early to say, don’t you think so?

Yesterday was the day when Malaysia and Indonesia had had a meeting regarding the palm oil. Indonesia and Malaysia constitute about 80% of the world’s palm oil production.Will the market respond positively to this meeting?

Today

In short term, the market is bullish so is the very very short term.My forecast is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 1646 to 1656. Buy after the market has moved up passing the levels between 1660 to 1667. The market may go up further if the levels between 1700 to 1708 are broken. Be careful of false alarm and remember your stop loss.

2) If the market opens between 1626 to 1636. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1615 to 1622. If this happens, the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

3) If the market opens between 1600 to 1625. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1568 to 1575 ( Swing strategy ), the market may fall further.

4) If the market opens between 1636 to 1646. Buy after the market has moved up passing the levels between 1660 to 1667. The market may go up further if the levels between 1700 to 1708 are broken. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 1636 to 1646 levels. On the other hand, sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1615 to 1622. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the lower side of the 1636 to 1646 levels.

5) If the market opens between 1658 to 1681. It is your call but I think the market may go up but may reverse if the level 1700 is not broken. Any way, if the market manages to beat the levels between 1700 to 1708, the market may set to go further up.

6) If the market opens above 1700. The market may go up further.

7) If the market opens between 1580 to 1624. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1568 to 1575.( Swing strategy )

8) If the market opens between 1556 to 1580. Sell after the market has gone up a bit and then falls passing 5 points below the opening point.

9) If the market opens other than the above. It is your call, I would just be blank.

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10) Please refer to # 9 ( see Thursday’s Tip dated 26^th June 2008 )

11) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( see Tuesday’s Tips dated 1^st July 2008)

Well, that’s about it , Mike. If you are not sure, just contact your broker/dealer but not your dentist. He has a bad smell!!!

Have a nice trading day!

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Market Low In The West, High On The Asia

Thursday - 27th November 2008

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The Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures for February's contract open at 1525 and closed at 1598. It closed higher yesterday. The highest was at 1604 and the lowest was at 1496.

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The market open at 1525 and 10 minutes later , it fell to the lowest of the day at 1496 at about 10.40 a.m. The market then shot up to the highest of the day before finally settling at 1598. The fall, after opening, was ' slow and steady ' and it almost indicated that the market was about to fall further ( did not look like a false alarm ) but the support at 1496 had made the market being pushed up higher all through the day.

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The market open within the forecasted points but after opening the market only managed to go up 2 points above the opening level ( not 7 points as suggrested earlier) so it was not as what it had suggested in the forecast. So, theoritically there was ' nothing happen '! No loss and no gain!

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Yesterday I did mention that if the market were to move and beat up the level between 1552 to 1557, the market would go further up but it might be short lived. The market did go up but it was not short lived, it kept going up. The same thing happen to ' the market may go down further if the market manages to beat down the levels between 1505 to 1511 '. The market did beat down these levels but did not go further down but instead it was a short lived! It ( the fall) happened only in the early part of the trading day. Oh, my,my,my.......

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Today

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There will be no forecast for today and next week because today my family and I are going to Sarawak ( and may be Sabah ) for a vacation to take advantage of these school holidays. I am going to forget all about CPO futures for a while ( I hope the places where I am going to stay has no internet facilities - my wife suggested me not to bring the laptop at all ! !! ) and just to enjoy myself . After being glued at the computer's screen almost every day, I think I deserve this, I must reward ( though a small one ) myself and my family!

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So, have a nice trading day every body!!!

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Global Share Markets Rebound?

Wednesday - 26th November 2008

8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) futures for January's contract open at 1530 and closed at 1520 yesterday. The highest was at 1550 and the lowest was at 1511.

The market open at 1530, moved down to 1514 at about 11.oo a.m. and then moved up to the highest of the day and settled at 1550 before lunch. Anyway the market started to fall down all the way through the afternoon session to finally settle at 1520. If you look at my forecast yesterday, the market did not open within the forecasted areas, so no money was made yesterday. Anyway if you look at #4 on yesterday's forecast, the market did go up in the morning session but it heppened the other way round in the afternoon. ( It says the market may go up if the market open above 1530 but the market open at exactly at 1530, so how? ). As for trendlines, there was no clear pattern what so ever.

Today

My forecast for today is as follows ; The market in short term is bullish but the very very short term is still bearish.

1) If the market opens between 1520 to 1536. Sell after the market has moved up 7 points above the opening level . Make sure that these 7 points distance do not pass either the level 1547 or 1511, just after opening. If the market manages to beat up the level between 1552 to 1557, the market may go up further but it may be short lived. So any profits, just lock them up. On the other hand, if the market manages to beat down the level between 1505 to 1511, the market may go down further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

2) If the market opens between 1536 to 1547. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 1552 to 1557. See the italic words as above

3) If the market opens between 1511 to 1520. Sell after the market has moved down the level between 1505 to 1511. The market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

4) If the market opens between 1485 to 1510. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level.

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is up to you. As for me...... I do not know.

6) Trendlines......make sure of the clear pattern first. If not sure, just stay away!!!!!

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )

8) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

If not sure........it is up to you, Mike....

Hav a nais treding dey!!!!

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Crude Oil & Soya Up Yesterday

Tuesday - 25th November 2008

8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

8.55 a.m. - a little bit of updating

Can you be really sure that if you follow the trend, the chances of winning the trade is better? Well, it is hard to say. Sometimes you may loose a lot if you do that. I give an example; the market is now on the way down and you expect the market to go further down and so you put a short and suddenly the market go against you and it goes passing your stop loss. You do it again at a different level and again it goes aginst you, so you loss! Or after placing the short, the market goes against you and after passing your stop loss, then only the market starts to fall down. By this time, you have already loss quite a lot!

So, let's get back to my forecast for today:

Today

The market , in short term, is still bullish, so is the very very short term.

1) If the market opens between 1493 to 1503. Buy after the market has passed the level between 1504 to 1510. Any profits, just lock them up, man.

2) If the market opens between 1468 to 1478. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1460 to 1467. If this happens, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the day especially if the market manages to pass down the level between 1445 to 1451.

3) If the market opens between 1443 to 1467. Sell after the has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening level.

4) If the market opens above 1530. The market may go up further

5) If the market opens below 1375. The market may fall further.

6) Other than the above. It is your call, I just do not know what to say.

7) Look for trendlines - a clear pattern, off course.

8) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June 2008 )

9) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July 2008)

That's about it. If not sure , do contact your broker ( CPO futures dealer) or may be your Yoga teacher!

Have a nice trading day.

Wall Street Falls Lowest Since 2003?

Thursday - 20th November 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude Palm Oil ) futures for February's contract open at 1440 and closed at 1480 yesterday. The highest was at 1493 and the lowest was at 1438. Sorry Mike, there was a litlle bit of a mistake yesterday, the quotation prices for the CPO futures yesterday was supposed to be for February's contract not January's.

The market open at 1440 and for about 5 minutes, the market lingered between 1438 to 1450 levels. The market fell a bit and then shot up to the highest of the day at 1493 before settling down at 1480 at the end of the day. If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see #1), at this point of time ( 5 minutes after opening ), the market had already past over the level 1446 and should you have placed a buy position , say at 1454 with a stop loss of between 15 to 20 points, you might had made a profit of , at least, 10 points to 35 points per lot. As for trendlines, there was quite a clear pattern of 3 tops ( 4 tops to be precised) at about 5.00 p.m. yesterday ( was it too late to trade at this hour? )

Today

As usual, due to some reasons, no forecast for today.

Have a nice trading day!!
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