Market Low In The West, High On The Asia

Thursday - 27th November 2008

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The Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures for February's contract open at 1525 and closed at 1598. It closed higher yesterday. The highest was at 1604 and the lowest was at 1496.

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The market open at 1525 and 10 minutes later , it fell to the lowest of the day at 1496 at about 10.40 a.m. The market then shot up to the highest of the day before finally settling at 1598. The fall, after opening, was ' slow and steady ' and it almost indicated that the market was about to fall further ( did not look like a false alarm ) but the support at 1496 had made the market being pushed up higher all through the day.

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The market open within the forecasted points but after opening the market only managed to go up 2 points above the opening level ( not 7 points as suggrested earlier) so it was not as what it had suggested in the forecast. So, theoritically there was ' nothing happen '! No loss and no gain!

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Yesterday I did mention that if the market were to move and beat up the level between 1552 to 1557, the market would go further up but it might be short lived. The market did go up but it was not short lived, it kept going up. The same thing happen to ' the market may go down further if the market manages to beat down the levels between 1505 to 1511 '. The market did beat down these levels but did not go further down but instead it was a short lived! It ( the fall) happened only in the early part of the trading day. Oh, my,my,my.......

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Today

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There will be no forecast for today and next week because today my family and I are going to Sarawak ( and may be Sabah ) for a vacation to take advantage of these school holidays. I am going to forget all about CPO futures for a while ( I hope the places where I am going to stay has no internet facilities - my wife suggested me not to bring the laptop at all ! !! ) and just to enjoy myself . After being glued at the computer's screen almost every day, I think I deserve this, I must reward ( though a small one ) myself and my family!

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So, have a nice trading day every body!!!

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Global Share Markets Rebound?

Wednesday - 26th November 2008

8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) futures for January's contract open at 1530 and closed at 1520 yesterday. The highest was at 1550 and the lowest was at 1511.

The market open at 1530, moved down to 1514 at about 11.oo a.m. and then moved up to the highest of the day and settled at 1550 before lunch. Anyway the market started to fall down all the way through the afternoon session to finally settle at 1520. If you look at my forecast yesterday, the market did not open within the forecasted areas, so no money was made yesterday. Anyway if you look at #4 on yesterday's forecast, the market did go up in the morning session but it heppened the other way round in the afternoon. ( It says the market may go up if the market open above 1530 but the market open at exactly at 1530, so how? ). As for trendlines, there was no clear pattern what so ever.

Today

My forecast for today is as follows ; The market in short term is bullish but the very very short term is still bearish.

1) If the market opens between 1520 to 1536. Sell after the market has moved up 7 points above the opening level . Make sure that these 7 points distance do not pass either the level 1547 or 1511, just after opening. If the market manages to beat up the level between 1552 to 1557, the market may go up further but it may be short lived. So any profits, just lock them up. On the other hand, if the market manages to beat down the level between 1505 to 1511, the market may go down further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

2) If the market opens between 1536 to 1547. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 1552 to 1557. See the italic words as above

3) If the market opens between 1511 to 1520. Sell after the market has moved down the level between 1505 to 1511. The market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

4) If the market opens between 1485 to 1510. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level.

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is up to you. As for me...... I do not know.

6) Trendlines......make sure of the clear pattern first. If not sure, just stay away!!!!!

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )

8) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

If not sure........it is up to you, Mike....

Hav a nais treding dey!!!!

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Crude Oil & Soya Up Yesterday

Tuesday - 25th November 2008

8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

8.55 a.m. - a little bit of updating

Can you be really sure that if you follow the trend, the chances of winning the trade is better? Well, it is hard to say. Sometimes you may loose a lot if you do that. I give an example; the market is now on the way down and you expect the market to go further down and so you put a short and suddenly the market go against you and it goes passing your stop loss. You do it again at a different level and again it goes aginst you, so you loss! Or after placing the short, the market goes against you and after passing your stop loss, then only the market starts to fall down. By this time, you have already loss quite a lot!

So, let's get back to my forecast for today:

Today

The market , in short term, is still bullish, so is the very very short term.

1) If the market opens between 1493 to 1503. Buy after the market has passed the level between 1504 to 1510. Any profits, just lock them up, man.

2) If the market opens between 1468 to 1478. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1460 to 1467. If this happens, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the day especially if the market manages to pass down the level between 1445 to 1451.

3) If the market opens between 1443 to 1467. Sell after the has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening level.

4) If the market opens above 1530. The market may go up further

5) If the market opens below 1375. The market may fall further.

6) Other than the above. It is your call, I just do not know what to say.

7) Look for trendlines - a clear pattern, off course.

8) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June 2008 )

9) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July 2008)

That's about it. If not sure , do contact your broker ( CPO futures dealer) or may be your Yoga teacher!

Have a nice trading day.

Wall Street Falls Lowest Since 2003?

Thursday - 20th November 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude Palm Oil ) futures for February's contract open at 1440 and closed at 1480 yesterday. The highest was at 1493 and the lowest was at 1438. Sorry Mike, there was a litlle bit of a mistake yesterday, the quotation prices for the CPO futures yesterday was supposed to be for February's contract not January's.

The market open at 1440 and for about 5 minutes, the market lingered between 1438 to 1450 levels. The market fell a bit and then shot up to the highest of the day at 1493 before settling down at 1480 at the end of the day. If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see #1), at this point of time ( 5 minutes after opening ), the market had already past over the level 1446 and should you have placed a buy position , say at 1454 with a stop loss of between 15 to 20 points, you might had made a profit of , at least, 10 points to 35 points per lot. As for trendlines, there was quite a clear pattern of 3 tops ( 4 tops to be precised) at about 5.00 p.m. yesterday ( was it too late to trade at this hour? )

Today

As usual, due to some reasons, no forecast for today.

Have a nice trading day!!
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Toll's Rate Has Gone Down - Will The Market Be So?

Wednesday - 9th November 2008
9.43 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for January'c contract open at 1437 and closed at 1436 yesterday. The highest was at 1446 and the lowest was at 1400. Just 1 point down .
Since there was no forecast on yesterday's market. So just let it be.

Today

There is something wrong with my streamyx, I have not been able to access to my computer for the last two days. Complaint has already been made upstairs, up to this date there is nothing to happen yet. So currently I am using my dial-up facility. Tm.net, oh, tm.net...

My forecast ;

1) If the market opens between 1400 to 1446. There have been 6 black bars for the past 6 days. Remember the swing strategy?( refer to my previous posts - I can't remember its where about ). So, if today the market opens within these levels and beats up the levels between 1447 to 1454, just buy here! The market may go up further and a white bar may be formed today or at least at the early part of the trading day. Don't forget your stop loss. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper parts of the1400 to 1446 levels.
2) If the market opens between 1410 to 1435. Buy after the market has retraced 8 points after opening hour. A stop loss of 15 to 20 points. After opening make sure the 8 points retracement does go down beyond the levels between 1393 to 1399. Be careful of the false alarm. If the market manages to beat up the level 1447 to 1454, see the above ( #1). If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1393 to 1399, the market may fall further down.
3) If the market opens between 1436 to 1446. Buy after the market has beaten up the levels between 1447 to 1454 ( see # 1 as above )
4) If the market opens between 1447 to 1470. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and moved up 6 points above the opening hour.
5) If the market opens between 1375 to 1399. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points down below the opening level
6) Other than the above, I simply just don't know, Mike! It is your call
7) If you r fimiliar with trendlines, look for a clear pattern first
8) Plese refer to # 9 ( Wednesday's Tips dated 26 Jun )
9) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Thurday's Tips dated 1st July )

If you are not sure, just consult your broker. ( licenced broker off course!) Or just call Osama but not Obama!

Have a nice trading day today!

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Exchange of Chairs At Seremban's Umno Meeting - Laughing Stock?

The market is going up!

Monday - 10th November 2008.
8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

Last Friday the CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for January contract open at 1580 and closed at 1609. The highest was at 1640 and the lowest was at 1560.

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The market open at 1580 and immediately fell to 1560 and after two minutes, the market then moved up to 1570 and started to linger between 1570 to 1579 for about 6 to 7 minutes before shooting up to settle at 1622 before lunch.

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When the market open, it was within the 8 to 17 points retracement ( see # 1 on last Friday's forecast) and when it fell to 1560 in a very fast way, it could have indicated that the the market might have triggered the false alarm but when the market was lingering between 1570 to 1579, the market might not be so anymore. By referring to my forecast ( see # 1), had a buy position been placed between 1570 to 1579 ( "buy after the market has retraced 8 to 17 points from the opening level ), a profit of between, at least 20 to 60 points could have been made. The market also did go up further after the level between 1608 to 1615 ( see # 1) had been broken. As for the trendlines, there was no pattern of what so ever that has been recognised.

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Today

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As usual, due to some technical reasons, I am not able to do any forecasting today and also for this week. I would be back, probably next week.

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If you have any inquiries, just contact your broker, do not contact .....er..er..well.....MR. BUSH as he is leaving the office in two month's time.

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Have nice trading day!!!!

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Friday - Last Day of The Week

Friday - 7th November 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for January's contract open at 1575 and closed at 1599 yesterday. The highest was at 1607 and the lowest was at 1548.

Since the market open not within the forecasted analysis, so I definiately could say that there was no money acquired yesterday. I did forecast that if the market were to open below 1599, the market would fall further but that did not happen. Anyway, there was a very clear pattern of 3 tops which the 3rd top occurred at 1607.

Today

In the long run, the market is still bearish but the very short term, I would say that the market is bullish. My forecast for today;

1) If the market opens between 1573 to 1597 - Buy after the market has retraced 8 to 17 points from the opening level. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper end of the 1573 to 1597 levels. As usual, be careful of false alarm and do not forget your stop loss. If the market manages to beat the level between 1608 to 1615, the market may go further up. If the market manages to bet down the level between 1555 to 1562, the market may fall further. After opening, make sure your 8 to 17 points retracement does not pass down the level 1562.

2) If the market opens between 1597 to 1607 - Buy after the market has moved up passing the level between 1608 to 1615.

3) If the market opens between 1563 to 1573. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1555 to 1562

4) If the market opens between 1608 to 1632 - Buy after the market has retraced a 'bit' and then moves up passing 5 points above the opening level.

5) If the market opens between 1548 to 1562 - Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening level. The market may fall down further if it manages to beat down the level between 1533 to 1541.

6) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call.

7) If the market opens below 1540 - It is again your call. Any way, I would say the market may retrace further down and a black bar may occur today or at least in the early part of the trading day. Till this moment I still do not have the mechanism on how to enter the market, so very bad of me!!!!!

8) Also look for trendlines.....if not sure..just stay awayyyyyyyy

9) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 27th June)

10) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

Well, have a nice trading day.
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