Bad or Good News? - Prime Minister Is To Resign This March

Thursday - 9th October 2008
8.25 a.m. - Malaysian Time
.

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December contract open at 1880 and closed at 1775 yesterday. The highest was at 1897 and the lowest was at 1755. It was a black bar.

The market open at 10.30 a.m. and immediately it fell to 1860 at 10.31 a.m. At 10.34 a.m., the market fell further to 1850 and then started to climb up back again to 1862 at about 10.40 a.m.The market then moved up further to the highest of the day before settling at 1885 before lunch.After lunch, the market continued its downwards movement and finally settled at 1775. This has clearly shown that the fall of the market, just after opening, was not a false alarm due to its steadiness in the price movement and the time taken. If you look at my forecast yesterday ( # 1 and # 2), you would be at the cross road here ; either to follow the # 1 forecast or the # 2 forecast.

If you were to follow the # 1 ( long at ,say, 1867 with 20 points stop loss), you would probably have made about 20 to 29 points of profit. If you were to follow the # 2 forecast, you would have just remainded the same because the market did not even touch the 1898 level.

The market also managed to fall further after the level between 1800 to 1806 ( see # 1) had been able to be broken through.

.

Today

.

As usual, no forecast for today. Those who have been following my blog, may probably have the idea of how to enter the market.

.

Have a nice trading day.

.

World Share Market Uncertainty - CPO?

Wednesday - 8th Oct 2008
9.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time
.

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December contract open at 1820 and closed at 1850. The highest was at 1892 and the lowest was at 1801.

The market open not within the forecasted levels but it managed to beat up the level between 1885 to 1890. Any way the market did not go up further after breaching these levels probably because it did not open within the stipulated forecast or may be because the market open a little below than the middle of yesterday's bar.

There was quite a clear pattern of 3 tops trendline which occurred at about 4.10 p.m. at 1860. The market retraced further to 1811 before rebounded back to settle at 1850. If you are not familiar with this trendline, just stay far away.

.

Today

.

In short term, the market is still bearish but the very very short term is now bullish. My forecast ;

.

1) If the market opens between 1822 to 1880. Buy after the market has fallen about 13 points after opening. As usual, be careful of the false alarm. Stop loss of about 10 to 20 points. If the market manages to pass down the level between 1800 to 1806, the market may go down further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 1822 to 1880 range. Make sure your 13 points down after opening does not break these levels. If it opens at this point, just stay away for a while.On the other hand, the market may go further up if the level between 1898 to 1905 are broken especially if the market opens more towards the upper end of the 1822 to 1880 levels.

2) If the market opens between 1880 to 1892. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 1898 to 1905, the market may go further up and a white may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

3) If the market opens between 1891 to 1821. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1800 to 1806.

4) If the market opens between 1892 to 1918. Buy after the market has fallen a bit and passed up 5 points above the opening level.

5) If the market opens between 1865 to 1890. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraced down 5 points below the opening point.

6) If you are familiar with trendlines, look for 3 tops/bottoms etc. If not, just forget it

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )

8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

.
That's about it. I got to be hurry, the market is about to open!!!!!
.
Enjoy your trading moment!!!!
.

Crude Oil Continued Dropping - CPO?

Tuesday - 7th October 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysian Time
.

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December contract open at 1850 and closed at 1820. The highest was at 1880 and the lowest was at 1775.It was a black bar yesterday.

Since the market open not within the forecasted levels, so there are nothing to comment today. Anyway, there was a pattern of 3 bottoms which occurred just after the lunch break but the pattern was not that very " clear".

.

Today

.

In brief, the market in short term is still bearish, so is the very very short term. The forecast for today is as follows ;

.

1) If the market opens between 1840 to 1857. Buy after the market has passed the level between 1862 to 1868. Do not forget your stop loss.If the market manages to beat the level between 1885 to 1890, the market may go up further. If you spot any profits, just lock them up, the market may go against you.

2) If the market opens between 1775 to 1790. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 1763 to 1770. Again your stop loss.The market may retrace further if these levels are broken, if you see any profits, just lock them up.

3) If the market opens between 1861 to 1880. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moved up 5 points above the opening level.See the bold letters as at # 1 above.

4) If the market opens between 1750 to 1770. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls passing down 5 points below the opening point.

5) Other than the above, it is your call, I am just blank!!

6) Also look for trendlines....

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )

8) Also refer to #9 and #10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

.

That's it.

.

Have a nice trading day!

.

After A Week Off - Still Holiday Mood

Monday - 6th October 2008
10.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time
.

The CPO ( crude palm oil) futures for December contract for the last week's performance ( last week the market open only for 3 days) showed a bearish black bar. If you refer to my forecast on 26th September, I did mention that ' if the level 2246 was broken down the market might move further down'. In fact on 27th September ( I also mentioned that it could also happen not on that particular day ) the market did break this level. Anyway, I did not mention the level to sell, it was more of a generalised forecast. If, say, had anybody out there placed a short here, he/she would have made a very very lucrative profits.As for me, I was already in my way to my vacation.

.

Today

.

In short term, the market is still bearish so is in the very very short term;

..

1) If the market opens between 2003 to 1988. Buy after the market has passed the level between 2004 to 2011. Remember your stop loss

2) If the market opens between 1935 to 1950. Sell after the market has moved down passing the level between 1926 to 1930. Remember your stop loss.

3) If the market opens between 2004 to 2030. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moved up 5 points above the opening level.

4) If the market opens between between 1910 to 1934. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then fallen 5 points below the opening level. Just be extra careful the market may go up again. If not sure just stay away.

5) Other than the above, it is yourcall, I have no idea.

6) Also you can look for trendlines such as 3 tops/ botoms...etc. If you are not familiar, just forget it!

7) Pleas refer to #9 ( Thursday Tips dated 26th June)

8) Also refer to # 9 and#0 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

.

That's about it! If not sure, refer to your broker but not politician!!!!

Have a nice trading day and smile always!!

.

Today - Holiday Mood

Friday - 26th September 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysian time
.

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for December's contract open at 2275 and closed at 2280 yesterday. The highest was at 2351 and the lowest was at 2259. The market saw a different of almost 100 points ( actually 92 points ).

.

If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see # 6 ), the market open below 2285 and it did not retrace as expected and the level between 2240 to 2246 was not broken. In fact, the market ended up a small white bar at the end of the day with a long upper shadow. Since the forcast did not suggest any " buy or sell levels" as compared to #1 to # 5, I would say , there was no money loss yesterday. Instead, It was more of your call, really.

.

Today

.

In long term, the market is bearish but in the very short term, the market is said to be in the sidelines phase. In this phase the strategy that may be suitable to apply would be the contratrian strategy which means, sell where you are supposed to buy and buy where you are supposed to sell. ( Please refer to my previous postings )

.

So, I would say, in general, the market will only show its new direction ( it may not be today ) if ;

.

1) The level 2246 and 2410 are broken. If the level 2246 is broken down, the market may ( I repeat, the market may ) move further down and, on the other side, if the level 2410 is broken up, the market may ( I repeat, the market may ) move further up

2) If the market opens above 2410, the chances for the market to move further up is greater than the possibilities as in #1. Buy after the market has dropped a "bit" ( Please refer to my previous postings ) and beat up 5 points above the opening level.

3) If the market opens below 2246, the chances for the market to retrace further down is also greater than the possibilities as in #1. Sell after the market has moved up a "bit" and then falls passing 5 points below the opening level.

.

P/S : Next week, the market will close on Wednesday and Thursday for 'Aid Mubarak festive season and I would be taking an off for the whole week. So I am going for a vacation and to enjoy myself !!!. Hooray....yahoo....yeahaa...yabadabadoo....etc

.

Thursday - Not So A Wonderful Day

Thursday - 25th September 2008
10.10 a.m. - Malaysian Time
.

Yesterday the "swing ' strategy did it again ( refer to my posting on 15th September) but with a small profits. As a day trader, profit is still a profit.For the past 5 days, there were days of 3 acending white bars. On the 4th day, a black bar occurred but it did not beat the lowest of the previous bar but yesterday was the day when it beat down the lowest bar ( of the 4th bar ). So if a sell had been made at this point, a profits of about 20 points could have been able to be made. So if you see this again, JUST DO IT !.

.

Today

.

So to be brief, the market is bearish now but the very very short term is bullish, so ;

.

1) If the market opens between 2320 to 2347. Buy after the market has dropped 13 points after the opening hour. If the market beat down the level between 2298 to 2305, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day. This would be more prominent if the opening hour is more towards the lower part of the 2320-to-2347 levels.If the market beats up the level between 2362 to 2368, the market may go up further and it may be short lived. This would be so if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 2320-to-2347 levels. If the opening hour is within the 13 points (or lesser than that ) from the level between 2298 to 2305, just be extra careful, the market may go against you.

2) If the market opens between 2347 to 2357. Buy after the market has passed up 2362.

3) If the market opens between 2310 to 2320. Sell after the market has passed down the level 2306.

4) If the market opens between 2285 to 2305. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening hour. It would be more prominent if the upwards movement is less than 10 points.

5) If the market opens between 2362 to 2382. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and moves up 5 points above the opening hour

6) If the market opens lower than 2285. The market may retrace and if the level between 2240 to 2246 are broken the market may go further down

7) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call, I simply have no idea!

8) Also look for trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms, head and shoulder. If not sure , just stay away.

9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

10) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

.

As usual, if not sure, just contact your broker

.

Have a nice trading day

.

Tuesday - The 2nd Day of The Week

Tuesday - 16th September 2008
8.48 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.17 a.m. - a little bit of updating
.

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for November's contract open at 2325 and closed at 2240 yesterday. The highest was at 2341 and the lowest was at 2240 with a 100 points difference. Yesterday also recorded that most of the world's share markets tumbled globally. So did the CPO follow suit?

.

The market open at 2325 and linggered between 2318 to 2338 for about 10 to 15 minutes and at 10.47 a.m., the market fell to 2309 ( 16 points from opening ) and immediately rebounced back to the highest of the day at 2341 before settling at 2309 just before the lunch break.After the break, the market kept falling and finally settled to the lowest of the day at 2240.

By refering to my forcast yesterday , see #1, if you had placed a buy position after the market fell about 13 points ( the market fell 16 points as stated above ) from the opening, you would have made a profit of between 20 to 40 points. If you refer to my forecast again, see #1, the market did past down the level between 2302 to 2308 ( in the later part ) and did also go down further and in fact a black bar was formed yesterday.

On the other hand, had you decided to place a buy " 5 points above the opening level", say at about 10.40 a.m. ( because the 1st 3 minutes after opening was a false alarm) at the level of 2330, you still might have made 'some' money only if your stop loss were more than 21 points.

In actuality, I do not really encourage to buy at this point, unless if you have a lot of extra cash and like excitement and challenges, because the market open at the lower part of 2323 to 2380 level and the chances for the market to go further down was quite great especially if the level between 2302 to 2308 were broken ( in fact, it was broken later during the noon hours ). Well, sometimes you have to take the risks ( culculated risks , off course ). Higher risks mean higher gains.

.

Today

.

My not-so-good mood still persits today and further more today is the 'transition period' from November's contract to December's contract, so I think I better not do any forecast for today.

.

As usual, if not sure, just contact your broker....( Many brokers nowadays prefer not to give any advise no more because they are always wrong on many occasions ....)

.

Have a great trading day!!!!

.