Friday - 22/8/2008

Friday - 22nd August 2008
9.30 a.m. Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for November's contract ( the forecast for 19th August ) - Due to some reasons, I was not able to make any comments on the performance of that particular day. Anyway, the market on that day open not within my forecasted level of openings, so theoretically , there was no loss experienced except that sometimes you may feel wondered how on earth that you did not make any money when the market was so perfect to make some easy money.

`

Today

`

Let's be brief this time - in long term, the market is still in bearish situation but the very very short term, the market is bullish. So here is my forecast for today ;

`

1) If the market opens between 2625 to 2662. Buy after the market has fallen between 9 to 20 points after opening. As usual be careful if the market moves down in a very fast and in a very steep manner, it could be a false alarm but if the market falls more than 23 points, the market may go further down. If the market manages to pass down the level between 2608 to 2615, the market may fall further and if , again, the level between 2598 to 2606 are broken, the market may drift further down and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 2625 to 2662 levels. If the market manages to beat up the level between 2672 to 2679, the market go up further especially if the market opens more towards the upper part of the 2625 to 2662 levels.

`

2) If the market opens between 2662 to 2772. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 2672 to 2679 ( also refer to #1 as above)

`

3) If the market opens between 2615 to 2625. Sell after the market has passed down the level 2608 to 2615 ( also refer to #1 as above )

`

4) If the market opens between 2590 to 2615. Sell after the market has moved up between 9 to 20 points after opening. Be careful of the false alarm. If the market moves up less than 10 points and later starts to retrace passing down 4 points from the opening level, sell here.

`

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call, I am speechless!!

`

6) Also look for trendlines....if you are not familiar, just stay away.

.

7) Please refer to # 9 ( see Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

.

8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( see Tuesday's Tips dated 1sy July )

.

Have a nice trading day!!!!!!

~

~

Tuesday

Tuesday - 19th August 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for November contract, recently, have been experiencing a period of bearishness since the past few weeks. If you are to look for the lowest possible level to long, I would say, you may be making a lot of losses before you could really achieve the lowest possible level. If you are then able to make profits, your profits may not be enough to cover your losses. So the best thing to do is to follow strictly your what ever charts or indicators that you have in order to minimise your losses, if any.

~

If you look carefully at the CPO futures' performance, the market has been influenced greatly by the movement of the crude oil at either the CBOT or TOCOM.

~

Today

~

In the long term , the matket is still in the bearish situation but in the very very short term, I would say the market is bullish. So my forecast for today is as follows ;

~

1) If the market opens between 2450 to 2475. Buy after the market has fallen 8 to 18 points from the opening level.Be careful if the market opens and falls in a very fast and steep gradient, it could be a false alarm.Don't forget your stop loss of between 10 to 15 points. If the market beats down the level between 2433 to 2440, the market may fall further especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the 2450 to 2475 levels. If the market, then, manages to beat down the level between 2402 to 2408, the market may fall further down.If the market opens and moves up passing the level 2484 to 2490, the market may go further up especially if the market opens more towards the upper level of the 2450 to 2475.

~

2) If the market opens between 2440 to 2450. Sell if the market manages to beat down the level between 2433 to 2440.

~

3) If the market opens between 2475 to 2484. Buy after the market has passed the level between 2484 to 2490.

~

4) If the market opens between 2484 to 2510. Buy after the market has fallen less than 8 points and moves up beating 5 points above the opening level.

~

5) If the market opens between 2415 to 2440. Sell after the market has moved up 8 to 18 points from the opening ( careful if the movement is fast and in steep gradient ) or do as above but in the opposite way ( see # 4 the bold letters). If the market manages to beat down the level between 2402 to 2408, the market may fall further down.

~

6) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call. I am not sure guys.

~

7) Also look for a clear pattern of trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms, head and sholuder etc....If you are not familiar with these trendlines.... just stay away and use other methods which are convinent to you.

~

8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )

~

9) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

~

If you are not sure, contact your broker. Never to contact your plumber. He may say CPO is just like water in the pipe. If you open the pipe longer, the water will be more ?????

~

Have a nice trading day and keep smiling even if you loss your money......#@$%^&*!

~

~

Monday ?

Sunday - 10th August 2008
4.40 p.m. - Malaysian Time

Last Friday, the CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for October contract open at 2806 and closed at 2779. The highest was at 2864 and the lowest was at 2767.

/

If you look at my forecast last Friday , see # 1 , which stated " If the market opens between 2790 to 2840..........or if the market falls less than 10 points, buy after the market has moved up passing 5 points above the opening level". The market , in fact, open at 2806 and immediately fell to 2798 and moved up again to 2812 ( passing up 5 points above the opening level )before retracing down again to 2798.The movement of the market was very fast and it was a false alarm.At about 10.34 a.m., the market started to move up and down again in a stable movement passing up the opening level ( more than 5 points above the opening level ) and then shot up to the highest of the day before settling at 2848 before lunch break. Had a buy position been placed, say at 2812 ( 6 points above the opening level or even after the false alarm ), a lucrative profits of more than 50 points or a minimum of at least 20 points could have been made. This could have covered the last "3-wasted-days" of zero income ( see the forecasts on last Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday ).

/

Tomorrow ( Monday )

/

As usual, due to some reasons, I am not able to do any forecasting for this Monday.

/

So have a nice trading day!!!!

/

/

Friday - Any Luck ?

Friday - 8th August 2008
9.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm Oil ) for October contract open at 2750 and closed at 2845 yesterday. The highest was at 2851 and the lowest was at 2735.

The market open at 2750 , moved up a bit and then fell to 2735 ( the lowest of the day ) at about 10.40 a.m. and later rebounced to shoot up to the highest of the day at 2851 before settling at 2845. Due to the market uncertainty which occurred on the day before yseterday, I did not make any the remark such as " if the market opens between 2720 to 2785 ". In fact the market open at 2750 and it was your call's decision. As for the trendlines, there were confusion every where and no clear pattern as well.

So, it has been 3 days and no money was ever aquired but there were no loss too!

Today ?

Still ok ? Thinking of giving up giving the forecast? Let's try for today and see what is going to happen. In long term the market is still bearish but in the very very short term, the market is bullish, so my forecast is as follows ( got to be careful now....);

1) If the market opens between 2790 to 2840. Buy after the market has fallen a bit ( between 12 to 22 points - stop loss of between 15 to 20 points) from opening or if the market falls less than 10 points, buy after the market has moved up passing 5 points above the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the level 2774 to 2780, the market may fall further especially if the opening is more towards the lower end of 2790 to 2840 .Make sure the opening level is not less than the 12 to 22 points in distance from the level between 2774 to 2780. If the market manages to beat up the level 2851 to 2858, the market may go further up or at least a part of the trading day especially if the market opens more towards the upper level of the 2790 to 2840.

2) If the market opens between 2840 to 2851. Buy after the market has passed up the level between 2851 to 2858.

3) If the market opens 2780 to 2790. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 2772 to 2780.

4) If the market opens between 2851 to 2875. Buy after the market has retraced a bit and moved up passing 5 points above the opening level.

5) If the market opens between 2755 to 2780. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and later fall 5 points below the opening level.

6) Other than the above, it is your call.

7) Also look for trendlines.....if you are not familiar, just stay away from the market

8) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday'Tips dated 26th June )

9) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

Well, that's about it. Hope I am right this time!

Have a nice trading day!!!!

Thursday

Thursday - 7th August 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for yesterday's market open at 2800 and closed at 2790. The highest was at 2803 and the lowest was at 2710.

The market open at 2800, this opening was not within the forecasted points put forward yesterday, and immediately the market moved up a bit to 2803 before retracing to the lowest of the day at 2710 just before noon. In the afternoon, the market went up to 2774 and fell back to 2720 before moving up again to settle at 2790. Well, theoretically, there was no money gained yesterday. As for trendlines, there was also no clear formation of 3 tops/bottoms, head & shoulder ..etc..what so ever.Well, it has been for two days without any profits yet - better than if you lose the money!!!!

Today

In the long run, the market is still bearish and in the very very short term the market is in uncertainty. So today , the forecast is a little bit simpler and shorter than usual;

1) If the market opens between 2785 to 2796 . Buy after the market has moved up passing the level between 2803 to 2809. If you see any profits, just lock them up.

2) If the market opens between 2710 to 2720. Sell if the market has moved passing down the level between 2704 to 2710.

3) If the market opens between 2803 to 2820. Buy after the market has retraced a bit and later moves up passing 5 points above the opening level.

4) If the market opens between 2695 to 2720. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and later retraces down passing 5 points below the opening level.

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call. Currently the market is quite hard to forecast except that the tendency to go further down is quite great.

6) Also look for a clear pattern of trendlines but if you are not familiar, just forget it.

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

8) Also to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

Well, that's about it.
If you are not sure please contact your broker...never to contact your newpaper man.....


Have a nice trading moment.

Tips For Wednesday

Wednesday - 6th August 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time

Yesterday the CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for October contract open at 2750 and closed at 2750. The highest was at 2787 and the lowest was at 2700.

The market open at 2750 which was far below than the forecasted level. So , theoretically, there was no money to be made yesterday. It is better not to enter the market rather than entering the market without proper analysis and at the end of the day, you end up losing money.As for trendlines, there was a pattern of 3 tops that occurred before lunch time but it was not a clear one. Any way a clear pattern of 2 bottoms had happened after lunch at about 4.30 p.m.If you are not familiar with trendlines....just stay away from it as it would be quite confusing to recognise the different between 2 bottoms and 3 bottoms.

Today

So how about today? If you look at the chart, the Japanese candle stick, yesterday's bar was a doji and quite a long one. It simply means that the market is in the indecision position which is neither bullish nor bearish. Anyway the direction of the market would be implied by today's opening position. So, in the long run the market is still bearish and so is the very very short run.

1) If the market opens between 2712 to 2760. Sell after the market has moved up between 12 to 22 points from the opening. As usual becareful if the market moves up in a very fast and in a very steep gradient after opening, it could be a false alarm. If the market manages to break the level between 2771 to 2777, the market may go further up especially if the market opens more towards the upper part of the 2712 to 2760 level. If the market moves further up again and manages to beat the level between 2785 to 2790, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of it.Also make sure that the opening point is not within the 12 to 22 points from the level 2771 to 2778 .If the market manages to beat down the level between 2693 to 2700, the market may retrace further down especially if the market opens more towards the 2712 to 2760 level. If this happens, the market is expected to rebounce in short time.

2) If the market open between 2760 to 2771. Buy after the market has moved up passing the level between 2771 to 2778.

3) If the market opens between 2700 to 2712. Sell after the market has passed down the level between 2693 to 2700.

4) If the market opens between 2771 to 2795. Buy after the market has retraced a bit and then move up beating 3 points above the opening point.

5) If the market opens between 2675 to 2700. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 4 points below the opening level. Be careful here, the market may fall a bit and is expected to rebounce at any time.

6) If the market opens other than the above , it is your call.

7) You can also look for a clear pattern of trendlines such as 3 tops/bottoms......If you are not familiar with trendlines .....just stay away.

8) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

9) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's it, man. Have fun and don't be too serious. Some say, if the money is yours it would be yours if not it would be not.

Have a nice trading day!!!!!!!!

Tuesday's Expectation

Tuesday - 5th August 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for October contract open at 2850 and closed at 2890 yesterday. The highest was at 2897 and the lowest was at 2820. It looked like the market was in the stage of reboucing from the last low.

Today

Yesterday, the market ended up a white bar and the indication is that the market should be in the positive position now. Anyway, the market direction would be determined by the opening of the day ( this is the strategy which is being used in this blog ). In long run, the market is still bearish but in the very very short term, the market, I beleive, is now in bullish sentiment. So my forecast for today ;

1) If the market opens between 2855 to 2888. Buy after the market has fallen a bit after opening ( between 9 to 19 points - stop loss of between 10 to 20 points ). Be careful if the market opens and starts to retrace down in a very fast and sharp gradient, it could be a false alarm.

If the market manages to break down the level between 2837 to 2844, the market may retrace further and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day. This would be more prominent if the market opens more towards the lower part of the ' 2855 to 2888' level. If the market manages to beat up the level between 2897 to 2905, the market may end a white bar today or at least in the early part of the trading day especially if the opening is more towards the upper part of the ' 2855 to 2888' level.

2) If the market opens between 2897 to 2925. Buy after the market has fallen a bit and moved up 3 points above the opening level.

3) If the market opens between 2820 to 2844. Do as in # 2 but in the opposite way

4) If the market opens between 2888 to 2897. Buy after the market has beaten up the level between 2897 to 2904.

5) If the market opens between 2844 to 2855 . Sell after the market has beaten down the level between 2838 to 2844.

6) If the market opens above 2925. It is your call.

7) If the market opens below 2820. It is again your call, I am not sure guys!

8) Look also for a clear pattern of trendlines such as 3 tops etc....

9) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June )

10) Also refer to # 9 & # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

Besides than the above strategy, there are other strategies that are currently being used to determine the market's direction which are quite hard to reveal here due to some reasons.

That's about it , if you are not sure just consult your broker. On what ever circumtances never to contact your brother-in-law.

Have a nice trading day!!!!