Monday, June 9, 2008

Monday's Forecast

Monday - 9 June 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO contract for August on last Friday open at 3460 and closed at 3528. The highest was at 3541 and the lowest was at 3435.

For the last whole week, I was on vacation ( school holidays in Malaysia ) and I decided to free myself from any trading of what so ever. In fact , some of the places where I took a rest have no telecommunication facilities, "and my mind was so calm and so clear "( lyric from an oldie ).

Today

In a very short term, the market is said to be bearish, anyway the direction of the market today will depend on the opening of the market ( This is the strategy used at current situation ).

1) If the market opens above 3629, the market may move further high and a white bar may be formed today. Buy after the market has dropped to between 8 to 18 points after opening or buy after the market drops " a little bit" and then starts to move up again beating 3 points after the opening level. Be extra caereful if the market opens above 3653, this strategy may not work.

2) If the market opens between 3590 to 3625. Buy after the market has dropped to between 8 to 18 points after opening. Don't forget your stop loss of about 10 to 15 points.If the market beats the level between 3626 to 3633, the market may move further up ( long here ) especially if the market opens more towards to the upper end ( nearing the 3625 level ). If the market beats down the level between 3570 to 3576, the market may move further down. This is more prominent if the opening is nearing the 3625 level ( short here )

3)If the market opens between 3580 to 3590 , sell after the market beats down the level between 3570 to 3576.

4)If the market opens between 3555 to 3579, sell after the market has moved up 8 to 18 points from opening or after the market moves up " a little bit" and then drops down beating 3 points after the opening level.

5) Other than the above, it is your call

6) If the market opens and moves up or down in a very fast and steep way and beats the anticipated level, be careful, it could be a false alarm. Wait for a second attempt.

7) You can also look for trendlines such as 3 tops, head and shoulder etc..... at appropriate level before making any position.

8) If you are not sure.......just stay out of the market.

If you are still not sure.....contact anybody whom you know except your in-laws

There are other strategies that are used which have a better winning outcomes but cannot be revealed at the moment due to the need of charts and graphs, may be some other time.

Have a nice trading day!!!!!!!!

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Tuesday?

Tuesday - 27 May 2008
8.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO's August contract for yesterday open at 3671 and closed at 3673. The highest was at 3705 and the lowest was at 3660.

If you look at my forecast yesterday ( see # 4 ), the market open at 3671 and immediately retraced 11 points from opening to the lowest of the day at 3660.A minute later the market moved up beating the opening point and started to move further up to the highest of the day at 3705. According to my forecast, a buy could be placed after the market fell from 7 to 20 points after opening. It seemed that yesterday, it was quite hard to long at the" after 7 to 20 points fall from opening" unless if you managed to que for the intended price. Anyway, had you managed to long at the level , you could have made a very handspme profits ( maximum 35 points ) indeed. The market did go up beating the level 3700 and after touching 3705, the market started to retrace down ( see #4 ). Anyway I was actually hoping that the market would go further up after beating the level 3700.


Today ?

Due to some reasons ( probably some of you may have known that ) , I am not in the position to make any forecasting today. Those who have been following my blog may probably have the idea of how to take position today.

Well, have a nice trading day !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Monday, May 26, 2008

Monday's Mood

Monday - 26 May 2008
9.15 a.m. - Malaysian Time ( market opens at 10.30 a.m. )

The CPO market for August on last Friday open at 3575 and closed at 3654. The highest was at 3658 and the lowest was at 3570. Since there was no forecasting made for last Friday market movement , then there will be no analysis to be made on the matter.

Today

So how about today ? In a very very short term, the market is still bullish;

1) If the market opens between the points 3627 to 3657, buy after the market opens and drops between 7 to 20 points from opening. Don't forget your stop loss.Be careful if the market opens and drops steeply and immediately after opening, it could be a false alarm. Take position only after the second attempt.Also beware if the market beats down the level between 3608 to 3616. If this happens, the market may fall further down ( especially if the market opens more towards the lower part of the suggested level as above ). If you are not sure of entering the market, look for trendlines such 2 or 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder etc..

2) If the market opens between the level 3617 to 3627, sell after the market beats down the level between 3608 to 3616.If this occurs, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed at the end of the day or at least in the early part of the trading ( goes down and later goes up again just enough to make some profits ).

3) If the market opens between the level 3590 to 3617, sell after the market opens and goes up between 7 to 20 points after opening. Be careful if the market opens and moves up in a fast and steep movement, it could be a false attempt. Try on the second attempt. Don't forget your stop loss. If not sure, look for trendlines such as 2 or 3 tops or head and shoulder etc...

4) If the market opens between 3657 to 3684, refer to #1 as above except that if the market moves up and beats the point 3700, the market may go further up or at least, it would go up and fall back, just enough to make some quick profits.

5) If the market opens above 3685, the market may ends a black bar today but if it moves further up and beats the level 3700 , the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed today or the market may fall back, just enough for you to take some qucik profits. It is your call to take position here.

6) If the market opens below 3590 , the market may end a white bar or at least the market would fall and later go up again just enough to make some profits. But if the market moves further down beating the level between 3560 to 3565 ( can sell here ), the market may go further down and a black bar may be formed toaday or at least or may go up agin, just enough for you to make some profits.

7) If you are not sure, you can look for a very clear formation of trendlines before placing your position.

That's about it. I could be right or could be wrong, I have.....blah blah blah balh.... If not sure.......contact anybody you like or not at all.

Have a nice trading day!

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Thursday's Heading

Thursday - 22 May 2008
8.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO's contract for August open at 3548 and closed at 3557 yesterday.The highest was at 3580 and the lowest was at 3525.

If you look at my forecast yesterday ( #1), the market open at 10.30 and immediately , by 10.31 a.m., the market fell beating the level 3528 to 3536. After reaching 3525 , the market rebounce to 3555. It was a false alarm.Had the market , on the second attempt, beat down the level 3525, the market would have gone down further.

As I mentioned earlier , if a buy position had been able to be placed " a little bit" after opening i.e. after the false alarm, a handsome profits could have been made.The market later also shot up to the highest at 3580 and before retracing down ( see also # 3 ).

There was also a clear formation of 2 tops after 4.30 p.m. ( you must be able to distinguish between the 2 tops and 3 tops because it can be quite confusing ). Well , you could have made, at least, 2 entries yesterday.

Today

In a very short term, the market is said to be bullish.

Due to some reasons, I am not able to do any forecasting today. Those who have been following my blog probably may have the idea of entering and exiting the market.

As usual, if you are not sure.....please, never to contact any politician.

Hav a nice trading

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Wednesday's Direction

Wednesday - 21 May 2008
9.20 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO for August's contract for yesterday open at 3513 and closed at 3554. The highest was at 3559 and the lowest was at 3513.

For your information, there was a mistake written in my forecast for yesterday's market ( see #3), it should be " buy after the market has moved down 10 to 17 points from the opening point." Anyway the damage has already been done.

If you look at my forecast yesterday, the market open within the level at # 3 except that the market did not retrace after opening , in fact the market kept going up and closed to almost the highest of the day.There was also no clear formation of trendlines such as 3 tops or head and shoulder except after 5.30 p.m. As I have mentioned earlier, as a day trader , the latest to enter the market would be around between 4.30 to 5.00 p.m. ( again it depends on situation such as volatility, volume etc.) In normal circumtances, a day trader seldom buys or sells and later bring forward the trading to the next day. So, theoritically, no money again yesterday!!!!

Today

So how's the market for today? The way I look at it, in a very short term, the market is still in bullish situation;

1) If the market opens between the level 3536 to 3559 - Buy after the market has retraced down " a little bit " after opening. Be careful if the market moves down in a very fast and steep way after opening, it could be a false alarm.If the market manages to beat down the level between 3528 to 3536 ( make sure you buy but not beating this level ) , the market may fall further down ( can short here ).If the fall keeps going down and beats the level between 3504 to 3513, the market may fall further and a black bar may be formed today.

2) If the market opens between the level 3511 to 3535 - Sell after the market moves up a "little bit". If the market manages to beat down the level 3504 to 3513 , see as above.

3) If the market opens between 3560 to 3583. Buy after the market has retraced down " a little bit " from opening. Careful if market falls steeply after opening. If you make " enough profits" lock up for profits immediately, the market may fall back. If not sure , do not enter the market if it opens at this level.

4) If the market opens below 3511 , it is your call.

5) If the market opens above 3583, it is your call .( Chances? It could be a black bar today )

Well, that 's about it. If you are not sure, contact your ..........girl/boy friend.....

Has a nais treding

Monday, May 19, 2008

Tuesday's Performance

Monday - 19th May 2008
1.20p.m. - Malaysian Time
Tuesday ( 20 May 2008 ) - 8.30 a.m. - a little bit of updating

The CPO market for August's contract open at 3500 and closed at 3570 on last Friday. An up of 70 points. The highest was at 3570 and the lowest was at 3500. For information, the market is closed today as today is a Wesak Day in Malaysia. The market will resume its activity tomorrow.

Tomorrow

In a very short term, the market is said to be bullish. For the past two days, the market ended a white bar on each day.

1) If the market opens between the level 3520 to 3560 - Buy after the market has fallen to about 10 to 17 points after opening. Be careful if the market opens and falls in a very fast way, it could be a false alarm .If this happens,the market may retrace further down.Do not forget your stop loss. I f you are not sure, look for 3 bottoms, inverted head and shoulder or other trendlines before long. If the market beats the level between 3571 to 3578, the market may go further up. A buy postion can be placed here especially if the market opens more towards to the level of 3560.( more towards the upper end of the level between 3520 to 3560 ).
If the market opens and later beats down the level between 3497 to 3508, the market may retrace further especially if the level 3485 is broken and it may end up a black bar at the end of the day or at least in the early part of the day. A sell position can be placed here. This would be more prominent if the market opens towards the lower end of the level between 3520 to 3560 ( or you could place a sell after market opens and moves up 10 to 17 points from opening ).

2) If the market opens between the level 3560 to 3570, buy after the market beats the level between 3571 to 3577 or after the market has fallen 10 to 17 points from opening point.. Do not forget your stop loss etc.....

3) If the market opens between the level 3509 to 3520, sell after the market opens and beats down the level between 3495 to 3508 or 10 to 17 points after the market has moved up from the opening point. Do not forget your stop loss etc....

4) If the market opens between the level 3571 to 3595, buy after the market opens and drops a few points ( preferabably more than 5 points ) and later beats the opening point of , at least, 3 points . If , after the market opens, the market falls , buy after 10 to 17 points from opening.Do not forget your stop loss or if not sure, you can also look for trendlines before long.

5) If the market opens between the level 3483 to 3508. Do as above but in an opposite way.

6) If the market opens not within the above, it is your call.

Well, that's about it. As indicated earlier, the methodology of tradings suggested in this blog are in generalities, there are other strategies which I use that give a better winning outcomes.

Have a nice trading day....

Friday, May 16, 2008

Friday?????

Friday - 16 May 2008
8.40 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO for July open at 3518 and closed at 3521. The highest was at 3542 and the loweat was at 3498.

Yesterday the market open not within the forcasted analysis so , theoritically, there was no trade made. No trade means no money was profited. As I said in one of my postings, make no money is better than losing some money unnecessarily especially if you enter the market without proper analysis of the market or if you are not sure of the trend but may still like to try your luck.

Anyway, if you look at the trendlines, there was only one clear pattern of 3 tops which occured at about 3.50 p.m. but the confirmation on the shorting position only happened after 5.00 p.m. As a day trader , this is not a good time to day trade due to several factors such as the volume, timing and volatility of the market which were not that encouraging.

Today

Since today is the transition day from July contract to August contract and also the current methodology used in this blog to enter the market may not be appropriate, I would rather prefer not to forecast on today's market direction. To some traders, today is considered as a rest day.

To those of you who still like to trade today.....have a nice trading day.