Last Day of 2008 - Middle East Tension, Oil Up!

Wednesday - 31st December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time


Sometimes you may wonder, how on earth that you still keep making losses after a stop loss position has been taken. In almost all the investment books that I have read, the authors , most of them, have suggested that ' if you make profits, just let them ride along' and a stop loss is a must as it acts as a mechanism to limit your losses. But in reality, after following their advise, it seems that you still make an endless losses.

So, what is next? Well, why not you practice a stop gain as well. It means, after placing your position, you must place another added position to sell/buy at a profitable levels. It may work wonders to you.

Today

The market , in long term, is still bullish and so is the very very short term;

1) If you look at the chart , there are 3 acending white bars that have been formed for the last 3 consecutive days. So if the market opens within the body of the yesterday's white bar especially if it opens more towards the lower part of yesterday's bar and then manages to beat down the levels between 1616 to 1620, the market may retrace further down ( remember the swing strategy ? - please refer to my previous posts ) and a black bar may be formed at the end of the day or may be in the early part of the day. So if this happens, just sell here!
2) If the market opens between 1644 to 1661. Buy after the market has dropped 6 points below the opening level. Be careful of the false alarm. Any way if the market manages to beat down the levels between 1616 to 1620, the market may retrace further down. ( see # 1 as above ). If the market manages to beat up the levels between 1672 to 1678, the market may go further up. If you see any profits, just lock them up!
3) If the market opens between 1662 to 1671. Buy after the market has moved up beating the levels between 1672 to 1678. ( see # 2 as above )
4) If the market opens between 1634 to 1644. Sell after the market has retraced beating the levels between 1616 to 1620. ( see # 1, as above )
5) If the market opens 1672 to 1695. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level. Any profits, just lock them up!
6) If the market opens above 1740. The market may go up further.
7) If the market opens between 1610 to 1633. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels 1616 to 1620, the market may retrace further down ( see #1 as above ).
8) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call.
9) Also look for trendlines...etc.
10) Please refer to #9 ( Thursday's Tip dated 26th June )
11) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

If you are not sure , just contact your broker.....not a match making broker



Have a nice trading day.



HAPPY NEW YEAR everybody!!!

.

X'mas Eve

.
Wednesday - 24th December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) for March's contract open at 1568 and closed at 1530 yesterday. The highest was at 1569 and the lowest was at 1530. A difference of 39 points.

The market open within the forecasted levels ( see #3 - sell after the market has gone up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening level), moved up 1 point at 10.31 a.m. and fell to 1560 at 10.32 a.m. but the upward movement of 1 point is not considered as " has gone up a bit" except if the market linggered at this levels for quite a time. The market then fell to 1557 , the lowest in the morning session, before settling at 1565 before lunch. In the afternoon, the market retraced further to finally settle at the lowest of the day, at 1530.
.
Theoretically, you should have been able to make some profits had you decided to short at 5 points below the opening level. But in practise, I do not think the 1 point up is considered as ' has gone up a bit '.
The market did fall further after passing down the levels between 1561 to 1568 and a black bar was formed even though the market did not open above the 1568 level as suggested yesterday.



To the Christians, Merry Christmas.



Have a nice trading day..

.

Volume - Primary Importance ?

.
Tuesday - 23rd December 2008
9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time
9.10 a.m. - A little bit of updating

Every time you contacted your broker ( dealer ) and asked for his/her opinion regarding the market, he/she would say that the market was not 'good' because the volume 'was not there'. Do you think the volume does really do the trick?

I do not really know for sure but as for me whenever I trade I seldom look at the volume. The most important thing to look at is the variance between the highest and the lowest of the prices. If the variance is high ( some say the volatility ), then it is good to trade. If not then it is not worth while to trade. The reason is simple, if you are to follow the volume concept which indicates that high volume means high activities and high activities mean high volatility, then there are times where the volume is large but the market do not move tally to the volume's movement. On the other hand, there are times where the volume is small but the price range is large. So the volume does not really act as a factor but more as an indicator.

Today

Should I do the forecasting for today ? Well......er... the volume is.....er.. tentatively, getting smaller every day due to the incoming of Christmas and end of the year holidays. Since, as I pointed earlier, that the volume is not the determinance, so my forecast for today is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 1578 to 1596 . Buy if the market manages to pass the levels between 1597 to 1604. If these levels are beaten up, the market may go further up and a white bar may be formed at the end of the day or at least in the early part of the trading day today. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1561 to 1571, the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today.
2) If the market opens between 1597 to 1620. Buy after the market has fallen a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.
3) If the market opens between 1553 to 1577. Sell after the market has gone up a bit and then retraces 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1561 to 1568 ( i.e. if the market opens higher than 1568, off course ), the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today.
4) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call or may be you can do some preparation for the coming Christmas.
5) If you are fimiliar with trendlines , look for 3 tops/bottoms etc...if not see bold letters as #4
6) As usual, please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)
7) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

That's about it. If not sure just contact your dealer/broker or may be Santa !

Enjoy your trading moment!
.

Today is Thursday - What Is Your Expectation?

.

Thursday – 18^th December 2008

8.00 a.m. – Malaysian Time

8.30 a.m. - A little bit of updating

.

The CPO ( crude palm oil) futures for March’s contract open at 1561 and closed at 1580 yesterday. The highest was at 1586 and the lowest was at 1548. A difference of 38 points.

The market open at 1561, moved up a bit ( 1 point only ) and then fell to 1555. The market then linggered between 1555 to 1560, which showed that the fall was not a false alarm, for about 6 minutes before shooting up to 1583. The market then started to retrace to settle at 1563 just before lunch. In the afternoon, the market fell to the lowest of the day and then moved up again to the highest of the day before finally settling at 1580.

If a buy position had been taken at this linggering situation, say at 1556, ( see my forecast at #1 yesterday – buy after the market has dropped about 5 to 9 points after opening - the market in fact , dropped 6 points ) a profit of between 15 to 20 points could have been made. The market, did also manage to beat up the levels between 1570 to 1577 ( see also # 1) and it ended a white bar yesterday.

Have a nice trading day!

.

What A Wonderful Day - Sunny Day Today?

Wednesday - 17th December 2008

9.00 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) for March's contract open at 1550 and closed at 1545 yesterday. The highest was at 1570 and the lowest was at 1545. It was a black bar with 41 points movement.

The movement of the market, after opening, was on the position of uncertainty. There was no clear direction even though the market open lower than the lowest of the day before. Will the market be following north or may be south today?

Today

The market is still in the bearish situation but on the very very short term, I would foresee the market is bullish. My forecast for today are as follows;

.

1) If the market opens between 1540 to 1570. Buy after the market has dropped about 5 to 9 points after opening and make sure that these 5 to 9 points dropping do not beat the levels between 1535 to 1540. If the market manages to beat down these levels, the market may fall further. The market is expected to make another fall if the levels between 1524 to 1529 are broken down. On the other hand , if the market beats the levels between 1570 to 1577, the market may move further up especially if the market opens more towards the upper end of the 1540 to 1570 levels. Any profits, just lock them up. Do not forget your stop loss and false alarm.

2) If the market opens between 1571 to 1595. Buy after the market has dropped a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.

3) If the market opens between 1515 to 1540. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and later fall down passing 5 points below the opening level.

4) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call...or may be you better forget it and go to sleep!!!!

5) Trendlines? Ok if you know how to...

6) Please refer to # 9 ( Thusday's Tips dated 26th June)

7) Also refer to #9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July )

Well, that's about it. Just cross the figures this time!

Enjoy your trading day even if you are not smiling.

.

Bush Was Thrown With Smelly Shoes - Bad Omen For Market?

Tuesday – 16^th December 2008

7.30 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The crude palm oil (CPO) futures for February’s contract open at 1625 and

closed at 1576 yesterday. The highest was at 1630 and the lowest was at

1570. A difference of 60 points.

.

The market open at 1625 and immediately moved up to 1630, the highest of

the day,and then retraced to 1598 before settling at 1603 before lunch. In

the afternoon, themarket went up to 1618 before falling down to the lowest

of the day at 1570 and finally closed at 1576. The market did not open

within the forecasted level of points, so nothing much to say here.

One thing to mention here is that you must not depend on one method of strategy only when it comes to placing

and existing a position, in fact you have to have multiple method of strategies and you must make sure that your

multiple strategies do not over lapse each other or else you may be in the position of confusion. So just do not

confuse yourself (may be you can confuse other people). The purpose of having more than one strategy is that if

the first strategy cannot be applied you could still have others to depend on. So a day of trading is not wasted.

Today

Since the new active month for CPO futures is March’s contract which starts today, I think I better wait for

tomorrow to do my next forecasting.

Have a nice trading day.

.

Can Obama Rule in The World of White Men?

Monday - 15th December 2008
9.45 a.m. - Malaysian Time

The CPO ( crude palm oil ) futures for February's contract open at 1650 and closed at 1581 last Friday. The highest was also at 1650 and the lowest was at 1567.
The market open within the forecasted points but did not react to what have been put forward on last Friday. Anyway the market mananged to beat down the levels between 1615 to 1622 ( see # 2) but not able to go down further after beating the levels between 1568 to 1575. ( Swing Strategy - see #7). It seemed that the Swing Strategy that I have mentioned earlier did not work well this time probably because the opening was too high up, in fact the opening was higher than the closing of the white bar on the day before ( Thursday).

Today

The market in long term is still bearish, so is the very very short term, so my forecast for today's day trading activity are as follows;

1) If the market opens between the levels 1567 to 1596. Sell after the market has moved up 8 points from the opening. Anyway if the market manages to beat the levels between 1597 to 1603, the market may go up further . Make sure that these 8 points 'distance' do not fall on to these levels after the market opens. Be careful of the false alarm and do not forget your stop loss. If the market is able to beat down the levels between 1560 to 1567, the market may fall further down.

2) If the market opens between the levels 1542 to 1567. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls down 5 points below the opening.

3) If the market opens between the levels 1597 to 1620. Buy after the market has retraced a bit and then moves up 5 points above the opening level.

4) If the market opens between 1640 to 1650. Buy after the market has moved up beating the levels between 1651 to 1658. If you see any profits , just lock them up!

5) If the market opens other than the above, it is your call. I don't know man......

6) Hey..what about trendlines? Have you forgotten them? Well, if you are familiar with trendlines , look for 3 Tops/bottoms or Head and shoulder/Inverted Head and Sholuder, etc.... If not, just stay away, do not waste your time and money. Money cannot be plugged from tree..you know...except, well .. palm oil's tree ( oil palm's tree? - see pivture above ), off course...

7) Please refer to # 9 ( Thursday's Tips dated 26th June)

8) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( Tuesday's Tips dated 1st July)

Well, that's about it. If not sure, do contact your dealer/broker. The forecast as above is just a matter of opinion from me...

Have a nice trading day!

.

Malaysia and Indonesia Joint Meeting On Palm Oil

Friday – 12^th December 2008

8.00 a.m. – Malaysia Time

Is it true to say that, recently, the world’s equity markets have shown some positive indicators regarding the direction ? Will the market be going up again? How about the next year’s performance? Too early to say, don’t you think so?

Yesterday was the day when Malaysia and Indonesia had had a meeting regarding the palm oil. Indonesia and Malaysia constitute about 80% of the world’s palm oil production.Will the market respond positively to this meeting?

Today

In short term, the market is bullish so is the very very short term.My forecast is as follows;

1) If the market opens between 1646 to 1656. Buy after the market has moved up passing the levels between 1660 to 1667. The market may go up further if the levels between 1700 to 1708 are broken. Be careful of false alarm and remember your stop loss.

2) If the market opens between 1626 to 1636. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1615 to 1622. If this happens, the market may fall further down and a black bar may be formed today or at least in the early part of the trading day.

3) If the market opens between 1600 to 1625. Sell after the market has moved up a bit and then falls 5 points below the opening level. If the market manages to beat down the levels between 1568 to 1575 ( Swing strategy ), the market may fall further.

4) If the market opens between 1636 to 1646. Buy after the market has moved up passing the levels between 1660 to 1667. The market may go up further if the levels between 1700 to 1708 are broken. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the upper side of the 1636 to 1646 levels. On the other hand, sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1615 to 1622. It would be more significant if the market opens more towards the lower side of the 1636 to 1646 levels.

5) If the market opens between 1658 to 1681. It is your call but I think the market may go up but may reverse if the level 1700 is not broken. Any way, if the market manages to beat the levels between 1700 to 1708, the market may set to go further up.

6) If the market opens above 1700. The market may go up further.

7) If the market opens between 1580 to 1624. Sell after the market has passed down the levels between 1568 to 1575.( Swing strategy )

8) If the market opens between 1556 to 1580. Sell after the market has gone up a bit and then falls passing 5 points below the opening point.

9) If the market opens other than the above. It is your call, I would just be blank.

.

10) Please refer to # 9 ( see Thursday’s Tip dated 26^th June 2008 )

11) Also refer to # 9 and # 10 ( see Tuesday’s Tips dated 1^st July 2008)

Well, that’s about it , Mike. If you are not sure, just contact your broker/dealer but not your dentist. He has a bad smell!!!

Have a nice trading day!

.