Thursday - 28 Feb 2008
11.50 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
This morning at about 10.00 a.m., I tried to post to this blog regarding today's ( Thursday's speculation ) but due to interruption at blogger and blogspot's web, the publication of my posting was not successful. As far as I am concerned ,I would prefer to post my forecast before the market opens.
The market open at 3879 and closed at 3850. The highest was at 3882 and the lowest was at 3837. Since I was not able to do any forecast for today, so I think it is better for me not to say anything.
Tomorrow
The way I look at it, I think the market is in consolidation or sidelines phase. It would simply mean that if there is a signal of going up , the market would move in a different direction. If there is a signal of selling, the market instead would move to go upwards and vise versa. This can clearly be seen especially at the opening of the market. The strategy to use here is to use contrarian strategy which means buy at the point where you are supposed to sell and sell at the point when you are supposed to buy. The risk is quite high, only those who are experience in this line can figure out the right position to enter the market.For those who are not sure , just stay away from the market for a moment. The only possible way to trade in this sidelines situation is to look for clear formation of trendlines.Any way you still have to be very careful. For the time being, I am not going to make any speculation until this sideline phenomena is over.
I foresee that the market would be "moving" again if it breaks up above 3920 or breaks down below 3750. If these level are not broken , I would say the market would be moving between these range.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Wednesday's Where About
Wednesday - 27 Feb 2008
8.50 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday, the market open at 3900 and closed at 3792. The highest was at 3903 and the lowest was at 3760.
After 6 consecutive days of white bars, the market decided to put a correction yesterday. Was it a correction or probably the reversal point of the bullish sentiment?
I made a loss yesterday. After opening, the market fell quite sharply but after 8 minutes, as there was a very short "consolidation period", I managed to put a buy at 3875 and also put a stop loss at 3865. Anyway the market was not in my favour . Instead the market kept pushing southwards especially after beating the level 3830, just like I mentioned yesterday. So I loss 15 points.That's it, you cannot win all the time.Besides there was also no clear formation of trendlines except before lunch break. From my experience, if the market is in the correction or reversal phase, it is better not to take any position especially if the market starts to show sign of , in this situation, going up again.
Today
It still looks like the market is still in the bullish situation;
1) At this point of time, I would prefer to say that if the market opens at 3786 and above and starts to move up and later beats the level between 3797 to 3802 then a buy position can be placed here or if the market opens at any points and later starts to move up to pass the level between 3797 to 3802, then the market is expected to move further up. If the market opens at any point but does not go up beating the level between 3797 to 3804 then the market could be in the indecision period but if the market starts to move downwards and beat the level between 3759 to 3752 then a further down could happen today. If the market opens above between 3802 to 3820 then the market may go up further.
2) Besides the above, also look for a clear pattern of trendlines which you are familiar with. If there is no clear pattern, just stay away.
Happy trading
8.50 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday, the market open at 3900 and closed at 3792. The highest was at 3903 and the lowest was at 3760.
After 6 consecutive days of white bars, the market decided to put a correction yesterday. Was it a correction or probably the reversal point of the bullish sentiment?
I made a loss yesterday. After opening, the market fell quite sharply but after 8 minutes, as there was a very short "consolidation period", I managed to put a buy at 3875 and also put a stop loss at 3865. Anyway the market was not in my favour . Instead the market kept pushing southwards especially after beating the level 3830, just like I mentioned yesterday. So I loss 15 points.That's it, you cannot win all the time.Besides there was also no clear formation of trendlines except before lunch break. From my experience, if the market is in the correction or reversal phase, it is better not to take any position especially if the market starts to show sign of , in this situation, going up again.
Today
It still looks like the market is still in the bullish situation;
1) At this point of time, I would prefer to say that if the market opens at 3786 and above and starts to move up and later beats the level between 3797 to 3802 then a buy position can be placed here or if the market opens at any points and later starts to move up to pass the level between 3797 to 3802, then the market is expected to move further up. If the market opens at any point but does not go up beating the level between 3797 to 3804 then the market could be in the indecision period but if the market starts to move downwards and beat the level between 3759 to 3752 then a further down could happen today. If the market opens above between 3802 to 3820 then the market may go up further.
2) Besides the above, also look for a clear pattern of trendlines which you are familiar with. If there is no clear pattern, just stay away.
Happy trading
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Today's Forecast
26 Feb 2008
9.10 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday ( Monday - 25th Feb) the market open at 3782 and closed at 3866. The highest ( again the highest ever recorded ) was at 3914 and the lowest was at 3776.
Since I did not make any forecast on yesterday's market so there was nothing for me to "say" today. There was also no clear formation of trendlines which could be recognised
Today
I would rather say that , in a very short term, the market is still bullish except that if the market manages to break the level 3830 and starts to decend further southwards;
1) Preferbably take position only if the market opens between 3855 to 3935 ( this is the position for bullish expectation ). If the market opens within this range and later moves downwards from 13 to 21 points from opening , then a long position can be placed here except if it passes 3853 and downwards, then there may chances that the market may retrace further down. Remember to put a stop loss between 10 to 15 points from the long position that you have taken. I received an e-mail from one of the viewer asking me the best position to buy after the market has reached the level where we are suppose to buy. Actually there is a strategy but it is quite hard for me to explain here as it needs a chart. With this strategy you can minimise the losing risk.
2) If the market opens between 3830 to 3855 and later later retraces to beat down 3830 , I would figure that the market may retrace further. Then a sell position could be placed here. There is a strategy to place a sell here in order to minimise the loss.
3) If the market opens at any point and later starts to move up passing 3920 or open above 3920 , the market may move up further. Anyway if the market opens above 3940 , it may be a black bar today
4) If no position taken after opening, then look for a clear formation of trendlines which I have mentioned earlier in my last postings but focus more on the trendlines that would signal a sell rather than a buy ( In fact you can still put a buy here but you have to look at the "trend" of the market ).
4) As usual, I am only speculating and I may be wrong. The choice is still yours.
Have a nice day and happy trading!
9.10 a.m. - Malaysia time zone
Yesterday ( Monday - 25th Feb) the market open at 3782 and closed at 3866. The highest ( again the highest ever recorded ) was at 3914 and the lowest was at 3776.
Since I did not make any forecast on yesterday's market so there was nothing for me to "say" today. There was also no clear formation of trendlines which could be recognised
Today
I would rather say that , in a very short term, the market is still bullish except that if the market manages to break the level 3830 and starts to decend further southwards;
1) Preferbably take position only if the market opens between 3855 to 3935 ( this is the position for bullish expectation ). If the market opens within this range and later moves downwards from 13 to 21 points from opening , then a long position can be placed here except if it passes 3853 and downwards, then there may chances that the market may retrace further down. Remember to put a stop loss between 10 to 15 points from the long position that you have taken. I received an e-mail from one of the viewer asking me the best position to buy after the market has reached the level where we are suppose to buy. Actually there is a strategy but it is quite hard for me to explain here as it needs a chart. With this strategy you can minimise the losing risk.
2) If the market opens between 3830 to 3855 and later later retraces to beat down 3830 , I would figure that the market may retrace further. Then a sell position could be placed here. There is a strategy to place a sell here in order to minimise the loss.
3) If the market opens at any point and later starts to move up passing 3920 or open above 3920 , the market may move up further. Anyway if the market opens above 3940 , it may be a black bar today
4) If no position taken after opening, then look for a clear formation of trendlines which I have mentioned earlier in my last postings but focus more on the trendlines that would signal a sell rather than a buy ( In fact you can still put a buy here but you have to look at the "trend" of the market ).
4) As usual, I am only speculating and I may be wrong. The choice is still yours.
Have a nice day and happy trading!
Monday, February 25, 2008
Mondays's expectation
Monday - 25 Feb 2008
9.45 a.m.
The market on Friday open at 3677 ( May's contract ) and closed at 3698. The highest was at 3720 and the lowest was at 3660.
The market open not within the ranged that I have suggested instead it open under 3690 and within minutes it retraced to the level below 3662. I did mention that the market would go further down had this level been broken but this did not materialise.After reaching this level, the market started to climb to the highest level ever recorded. This indicates that, if the market today ( Monday ) is not able to to proceed further up, it would mean that the market will be in a consolidation phase.There was also no clear formation of trendlines that could be noticed.
Today
As for today, I would prefer to say that the market is still in the bullish stand. Any way if the market ends up in a small black bar or just small white bar , I would say the market will be in the cosolidation period. Just beware , if the market opens below 3689 and later passes down the 3672 or open at any point and later moves to pass down the 3672 level, it may lead to a further low. If not, as I said earlier , it may lead to indecision situation. If the market opens above 3704 and beats 3722 , it may lead to a further high. As for me ,I beg to decline to forecaste anything today except I would rather look at clear formation of trendlines such as head and shoulder, 3 tops etc.
9.45 a.m.
The market on Friday open at 3677 ( May's contract ) and closed at 3698. The highest was at 3720 and the lowest was at 3660.
The market open not within the ranged that I have suggested instead it open under 3690 and within minutes it retraced to the level below 3662. I did mention that the market would go further down had this level been broken but this did not materialise.After reaching this level, the market started to climb to the highest level ever recorded. This indicates that, if the market today ( Monday ) is not able to to proceed further up, it would mean that the market will be in a consolidation phase.There was also no clear formation of trendlines that could be noticed.
Today
As for today, I would prefer to say that the market is still in the bullish stand. Any way if the market ends up in a small black bar or just small white bar , I would say the market will be in the cosolidation period. Just beware , if the market opens below 3689 and later passes down the 3672 or open at any point and later moves to pass down the 3672 level, it may lead to a further low. If not, as I said earlier , it may lead to indecision situation. If the market opens above 3704 and beats 3722 , it may lead to a further high. As for me ,I beg to decline to forecaste anything today except I would rather look at clear formation of trendlines such as head and shoulder, 3 tops etc.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Forecast for Friday
Thursday - 21 Feb 2008
11.45 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Today the market open at 3685 and closed higher at 3702. The highest ( highest in the history again ) was at 3708 and the lowest was at 3668.Due to some technical problems yesterday, I was not able to forecast on today's market .
What about tomorrow ( Friday )
Tomorrow will be the last day for the week. In short term, I believe the market is still bullish, so I expect tomorrow will also be bullish, at least in the early part of the trading;
1) Take position only if the market opens between 3690 to 3735. If the market opens within this range, wait until the market falls to the level between 5 to 11 points then only a buy position could be placed here. Make sure to put a stop loss between 10 to 15 points after a long position has been established. After opening , if the market goes downwards in a very fast way, just be extra careful before placing the buy position.Wait untill the market consolidates then only a buy position could be taken.
2) If the market opens below 3690 and starts to retrace passing down between 3680 to 3676, the market may go down further. If the market retraces further to go below 3662, the probability of black bar tomorrow is quite great.
3) If the market opens below 3676, look to sell especially if it beats down the level 3662
4) If the market opens above 3775, the market could be a black bar tomorrow.
5) If no position is to be taken after opening, look for a clear trendlines such as head and shoulder, 2 Tops, 3 Tops etc
6) As usual, this is only my forecast , if you have any doubt, contact your broker
11.45 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Today the market open at 3685 and closed higher at 3702. The highest ( highest in the history again ) was at 3708 and the lowest was at 3668.Due to some technical problems yesterday, I was not able to forecast on today's market .
What about tomorrow ( Friday )
Tomorrow will be the last day for the week. In short term, I believe the market is still bullish, so I expect tomorrow will also be bullish, at least in the early part of the trading;
1) Take position only if the market opens between 3690 to 3735. If the market opens within this range, wait until the market falls to the level between 5 to 11 points then only a buy position could be placed here. Make sure to put a stop loss between 10 to 15 points after a long position has been established. After opening , if the market goes downwards in a very fast way, just be extra careful before placing the buy position.Wait untill the market consolidates then only a buy position could be taken.
2) If the market opens below 3690 and starts to retrace passing down between 3680 to 3676, the market may go down further. If the market retraces further to go below 3662, the probability of black bar tomorrow is quite great.
3) If the market opens below 3676, look to sell especially if it beats down the level 3662
4) If the market opens above 3775, the market could be a black bar tomorrow.
5) If no position is to be taken after opening, look for a clear trendlines such as head and shoulder, 2 Tops, 3 Tops etc
6) As usual, this is only my forecast , if you have any doubt, contact your broker
Thursday - 21 Feb 2008
Thusrday - 21 Feb 2008
9.00 a.m.
Sorry, there is something wrong with my computer connection, my postings on today's market forecast did not go through.
9.00 a.m.
Sorry, there is something wrong with my computer connection, my postings on today's market forecast did not go through.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Wednesday - 20 Feb 2008
19 Feb 2008
9.55 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Edited at 8.30 a.m.- 20 Feb 2008
The market today open at 3588 and closed at 3625. The highest was at 3646 and lowest was at 3555. It seemed that today is the highest points ever recorded.It also seems that the market is breaking a new record almost everyday.
The market today open within the body of yesterday black's bar. In normal circuntances, if this situation occurs , it indicates the market will be a white bar.After 8 minutes of opening the market went down reaching more than 12 points as forecasted by me yesterday ( I forecasted between 12 to 20 points ).Today I managed to put a buy at 3567 but because my stop loss was only at 10 points after my buying position, I made a loss today! Those who had bought at this level but had put 15 points stop loss should have made quite a handsome profits!
There was also a pattern of inverted head and shoulder; the shoulder was at 10.38 a.m., the head was at 10.46 a.m. and another shoulder which was not in a clear pattern either at 11.00 a.m. or at 11.30 a.m. It was quite a gamble should this position had been taken ( long position ) as it proved later that the market started to climb to the highest points ever recorded.
Tomorrtow?
I would still prefer to say that the market is still "bullish" but if the market opens at any point tomorrow ,especially if it opens below 3525, and later starts to retrace down between 3615 to 3610 and downwards , the market may be retracing further down, look for a signal to sell by using trendlines which you are familiar with! If the market opens above 3527 and above, it could go further up and a new record high would be in the making.
This is only my forecast, I may be wrong again just like today. If you are in doubt , just contact your broker.
Have a nice day!
9.55 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Edited at 8.30 a.m.- 20 Feb 2008
The market today open at 3588 and closed at 3625. The highest was at 3646 and lowest was at 3555. It seemed that today is the highest points ever recorded.It also seems that the market is breaking a new record almost everyday.
The market today open within the body of yesterday black's bar. In normal circuntances, if this situation occurs , it indicates the market will be a white bar.After 8 minutes of opening the market went down reaching more than 12 points as forecasted by me yesterday ( I forecasted between 12 to 20 points ).Today I managed to put a buy at 3567 but because my stop loss was only at 10 points after my buying position, I made a loss today! Those who had bought at this level but had put 15 points stop loss should have made quite a handsome profits!
There was also a pattern of inverted head and shoulder; the shoulder was at 10.38 a.m., the head was at 10.46 a.m. and another shoulder which was not in a clear pattern either at 11.00 a.m. or at 11.30 a.m. It was quite a gamble should this position had been taken ( long position ) as it proved later that the market started to climb to the highest points ever recorded.
Tomorrtow?
I would still prefer to say that the market is still "bullish" but if the market opens at any point tomorrow ,especially if it opens below 3525, and later starts to retrace down between 3615 to 3610 and downwards , the market may be retracing further down, look for a signal to sell by using trendlines which you are familiar with! If the market opens above 3527 and above, it could go further up and a new record high would be in the making.
This is only my forecast, I may be wrong again just like today. If you are in doubt , just contact your broker.
Have a nice day!
Monday, February 18, 2008
What's on on Tuesday
18 Feb 2008
11.55 p.m. - Malaysia Time Zone
Today the market open at 3508 ( May contract ) and closed at 3599. The highest was at 3600 and the lowest was at 3508.
I have no comment on that.
As for Tuesday, I would like to say that the market is still in bulish sentiment. As I said earlier on , my strategy focuses more on the early part of the opening rather than closing. So if the market tomorrow is to close a black bar, it would make no different to the strategy;
1) Take position only if the market opens between 3534 to 3627
2) If the market does not open within these points or no position is to be taken even if the market opens within these points, then , during the trading, look for a clear formation of the trendlines which are familiar to you.
1.1) If the market opens between 3534 to 3627, put a buy position when the market retraces to a level of 12 to 20 points from the opening. If the market moves down at a very fast rate, just be very careful.It may make you to buy at the wrong position and probably you might have to execute your stop loss position ( In this case, experience plays an important part here )
1.1) If the market opens above 3627 , the market may retrace down. If not sure what to do next , just stay out of the market.
1.2) If the market opens below 3534 and later starts to move and passing down the points between 3522 to 3517, it may lead to a further fall in the futures's prices. If the market opens at any point between 3534 to 3627 , especially if it is near to the lower end, and then starts to decend down between 3522 to 3517 and below, the market may decend further down.
As I mentioned earlier, this is only a forecast, I could be wrong and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If you have any doubt, please consult your broker.
11.55 p.m. - Malaysia Time Zone
Today the market open at 3508 ( May contract ) and closed at 3599. The highest was at 3600 and the lowest was at 3508.
I have no comment on that.
As for Tuesday, I would like to say that the market is still in bulish sentiment. As I said earlier on , my strategy focuses more on the early part of the opening rather than closing. So if the market tomorrow is to close a black bar, it would make no different to the strategy;
1) Take position only if the market opens between 3534 to 3627
2) If the market does not open within these points or no position is to be taken even if the market opens within these points, then , during the trading, look for a clear formation of the trendlines which are familiar to you.
1.1) If the market opens between 3534 to 3627, put a buy position when the market retraces to a level of 12 to 20 points from the opening. If the market moves down at a very fast rate, just be very careful.It may make you to buy at the wrong position and probably you might have to execute your stop loss position ( In this case, experience plays an important part here )
1.1) If the market opens above 3627 , the market may retrace down. If not sure what to do next , just stay out of the market.
1.2) If the market opens below 3534 and later starts to move and passing down the points between 3522 to 3517, it may lead to a further fall in the futures's prices. If the market opens at any point between 3534 to 3627 , especially if it is near to the lower end, and then starts to decend down between 3522 to 3517 and below, the market may decend further down.
As I mentioned earlier, this is only a forecast, I could be wrong and I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If you have any doubt, please consult your broker.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Friday's Performance
Saturday - 16 Feb2008
11.00 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market on Friday open at 3544 and closed at 3484. The highest was at 3544 and lowest was at3474.
As I mentioned on last Thursday's nite that if the market open above 3484, it may lead to a fall. It seemed that it did fall to 70 points. I also mentioned to take position only if the market open between the range of 3479 to 3440. If the market open not within range or if no position was made after the opening of the market then a person can look for a clear pattern of the trendlines during the actual trading of the futures.
There was one very clear pattern of inverted Head and Shoulder which occurred between 12.00 p.m. to 3.35 p.m. If this position ( a buy position) had been placed , there would have been a profit of about 10 points. In fact , it was quite a "safe" position to take because it took about 1/2 hour for the market to reach at that 10 points level.There was no other clear pattern recognised because the market was really on the verge of falling and falling.
11.00 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
The market on Friday open at 3544 and closed at 3484. The highest was at 3544 and lowest was at3474.
As I mentioned on last Thursday's nite that if the market open above 3484, it may lead to a fall. It seemed that it did fall to 70 points. I also mentioned to take position only if the market open between the range of 3479 to 3440. If the market open not within range or if no position was made after the opening of the market then a person can look for a clear pattern of the trendlines during the actual trading of the futures.
There was one very clear pattern of inverted Head and Shoulder which occurred between 12.00 p.m. to 3.35 p.m. If this position ( a buy position) had been placed , there would have been a profit of about 10 points. In fact , it was quite a "safe" position to take because it took about 1/2 hour for the market to reach at that 10 points level.There was no other clear pattern recognised because the market was really on the verge of falling and falling.
As for Monday, due to some reasons, I am not able to make any forecasting today but what I like to say here is that there is a gap between last Friday's black bar and Thursday's white bar. Do you think you know what this means ?
Thursday, February 14, 2008
How's The Market on Friday?
14 Feb 2008
11.50 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
1) I am using 2 type of strategies ;
1.1) The early movement of the market after market opens in the morning
1.2) During the trading hours between 10.30 a.m. to 6.30 a.m. - the use of trendlines such as ; 3 Tops/Bottoms, Head and
Shoulder, 2 Tops/Bottoms etc
2) Since the market closed today on a higher note beating 3458, which was on 5th Feb, the CPO futures was said to be the highest ever recorded today at 3459. 1 point extra only. As for tomorrow, I would forecast that the market would be bullish ( As I mentioned earlier, my strategy is focusing more on the opening rather than the close. Even if tomorrow is be a black bar, it gives no effect to the strategy )
3) Take position only if the market opens between 3479 to 3440. If the market opens within this range and then falls to about 6 to 16 points from the opening then a buy position can be placed. A stop loss of about 10 to 15 points can be done after a buy position has been placed. Be careful if, after opening, the market falls immediately in a very steep way. The best is still , after opening, the market moves a little bit up and then falls slowly to the level that I mentioned just now. Any way, if in doubt, just stay away from the market.
4) If ,after opening, the market happens to beat yesterday's highest or opens higher than yesterday's highest or opens higher than 3464 then it may continue to move up further. Anyway if the market opens higher than 3484, then, from my experience, the market may fall. Any buy up at this juncture would involve a high risk.
5) If market opens below 3440, it could mean that market may fall further down especially if it beats down the level between 3439 to 3425.
6) If no position is to be made after the opening, look for a clear pattern of 3 tops/bottoms, head and shoulder, 2 tops/bottoms and also other trendlines that you are familair with during the trading hours.
7) As I have stated in my previous postings, this is only my forecasting. I could be wrong, I have been wrong for quite a number of times. For further information, contact your broker.
11.50 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Since I did not make any forecasting on today's market, I would rather prefer to talk on tomorrow's market ( Friday)
1) I am using 2 type of strategies ;
1.1) The early movement of the market after market opens in the morning
1.2) During the trading hours between 10.30 a.m. to 6.30 a.m. - the use of trendlines such as ; 3 Tops/Bottoms, Head and
Shoulder, 2 Tops/Bottoms etc
2) Since the market closed today on a higher note beating 3458, which was on 5th Feb, the CPO futures was said to be the highest ever recorded today at 3459. 1 point extra only. As for tomorrow, I would forecast that the market would be bullish ( As I mentioned earlier, my strategy is focusing more on the opening rather than the close. Even if tomorrow is be a black bar, it gives no effect to the strategy )
3) Take position only if the market opens between 3479 to 3440. If the market opens within this range and then falls to about 6 to 16 points from the opening then a buy position can be placed. A stop loss of about 10 to 15 points can be done after a buy position has been placed. Be careful if, after opening, the market falls immediately in a very steep way. The best is still , after opening, the market moves a little bit up and then falls slowly to the level that I mentioned just now. Any way, if in doubt, just stay away from the market.
4) If ,after opening, the market happens to beat yesterday's highest or opens higher than yesterday's highest or opens higher than 3464 then it may continue to move up further. Anyway if the market opens higher than 3484, then, from my experience, the market may fall. Any buy up at this juncture would involve a high risk.
5) If market opens below 3440, it could mean that market may fall further down especially if it beats down the level between 3439 to 3425.
6) If no position is to be made after the opening, look for a clear pattern of 3 tops/bottoms, head and shoulder, 2 tops/bottoms and also other trendlines that you are familair with during the trading hours.
7) As I have stated in my previous postings, this is only my forecasting. I could be wrong, I have been wrong for quite a number of times. For further information, contact your broker.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
What Next?
13 Feb 2008 - 11.50 p.m. - Malaysia time zone
Today the market open at 3391 and closed at 3360. The highest was at 3403 and the lowest was at 3338 ( This is for April's contract ).
This morning, the market open within the range which I mentioned yesterday.After opening, the market immediately moved down to 3380 and then started to climb up to 3403 which was about 12 points above the opening, just like what I have forecasted yesterday. At this level, if a sell position, as suggested yesterday, was made a profit of between 20 to 30 points could have been made.
Besides that, a clear pattern of decending 3 bottoms were able to be recognised . For the first bottom, it was between 11.53 a.m. to 12.02 p.m. , 2nd bottom between 12.02 p.m. to 12.30p.m. and 3rd bottom between 3.00 p.m. to 3.10 p.m. Here, if a buy position was made, the profits could have been between 10 to 13 points only.
Another 3 tops trendlines were also formed between 3.10 p.m. to 4.05 p.m. but the formations were not very "clear" so it was better to stay away from the market. Some say it is better not to enter the market rather than losing some money. So for today's market, 2 entry could have been placed.
As for tomorrow ( Thursday ), due to some reasons, I am going to do any forecasting . Probably I would be back tomorrow for Friday's forecasting of CPO futures ( April's contract ). Any response from viewers so far ?
Today the market open at 3391 and closed at 3360. The highest was at 3403 and the lowest was at 3338 ( This is for April's contract ).
This morning, the market open within the range which I mentioned yesterday.After opening, the market immediately moved down to 3380 and then started to climb up to 3403 which was about 12 points above the opening, just like what I have forecasted yesterday. At this level, if a sell position, as suggested yesterday, was made a profit of between 20 to 30 points could have been made.
Besides that, a clear pattern of decending 3 bottoms were able to be recognised . For the first bottom, it was between 11.53 a.m. to 12.02 p.m. , 2nd bottom between 12.02 p.m. to 12.30p.m. and 3rd bottom between 3.00 p.m. to 3.10 p.m. Here, if a buy position was made, the profits could have been between 10 to 13 points only.
Another 3 tops trendlines were also formed between 3.10 p.m. to 4.05 p.m. but the formations were not very "clear" so it was better to stay away from the market. Some say it is better not to enter the market rather than losing some money. So for today's market, 2 entry could have been placed.
As for tomorrow ( Thursday ), due to some reasons, I am going to do any forecasting . Probably I would be back tomorrow for Friday's forecasting of CPO futures ( April's contract ). Any response from viewers so far ?
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
What about Wednesday?
12 Feb 2008 ( 10.30 p.m. - Malaysia time zone )
Today the market open at 3405 , closed at 3375. The highest was at 3446 and lowest was at 3375.
The opening of the market was within my expectation as mentioned yesterday except that after opening the market started to move up to 3446 before falling down to 2391 and moved up again to reach 3421 before lunch break. The market retraced to 3491 which was 14 points from the opening not 15 points as I have suggested yesterday. Anyway I do not recommend to buy here as my strategy is more focusing on taking position in the early part of the opening.
After opening the market moved up to 3446, there was a "clear " pattern or formation of 3 ascending Tops ; 1st Top was from the opening to 10.41 a.m., 2nd Top from 10.41 to 10.50 a.m., 3rd Top was from 10.50 to 11.06 a.m. A sell (short) position after the 3rd Top formation would incur profits to about 20 to 40 points.
An inverted formation of Head and Shoulder was also formed before lunch break. But the " pattern" was not clearly recognised, so the best thing to do was to stay away from the market. The Shoulder was clearly formed between 11.26 a.m. to 11.30 a.m., the head from 11.30 a.m. to 11.40 a.m. but the other shoulder was not clearly recognised.
After lunch , there was also a clear pattern of 3 Tops ; the 1st top was between 12.00 a.m. to 3.14; the 2nd top from 3.14 p.m. to 4.00 p.m and the other top from 4.00 to 4.30 p.m. So from this observation, I can say that there were 2 points of entry for today's market.
What about Wednesday?
Since today's market was a black bar, so I anticipate tomorrow will be bearish ( Please take note that tomorrow may end up a white bar but my strategy is to focus on after opening rather than the closing so whether the market ends up white or black bar makes no different to me);
1) Take position only if the market opens between 3426 to 3349. After opening, if the market moves up to about 11to 16 points, then place a sell here and don't forget to put a stop loss between 10 to 20 points after taking the position. If after opening the market moves up in a fast and sharp gradient, just be careful. If not sure, stay away.The best is, after opening, the market retraces down a little bit and then starts to move up slowly and steadily to reach at 11 to 16 points after opening, then put a sell position here . Any way do not forget your stop loss point.
2) If the market opens above 3426 and moves up passing 3438 to 3443 then the market may go up further.
3) If the market opens 3349 and below , the chances is that the market could move up further
4) Any way if you decide not to take any position after the opening of the market, then look for these clear formations ; 3Tops/Bottoms, 2 Tops/Bottoms, Head and Shoulder ( also inverted Head and Shoulder ) and Half Mountain trendlines. If there are no clear formation , just do nothing
5) As I mentioned earlier , this is only a prediction on the CPO market. I may be wrong! I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt please contact your broker.
Today the market open at 3405 , closed at 3375. The highest was at 3446 and lowest was at 3375.
The opening of the market was within my expectation as mentioned yesterday except that after opening the market started to move up to 3446 before falling down to 2391 and moved up again to reach 3421 before lunch break. The market retraced to 3491 which was 14 points from the opening not 15 points as I have suggested yesterday. Anyway I do not recommend to buy here as my strategy is more focusing on taking position in the early part of the opening.
After opening the market moved up to 3446, there was a "clear " pattern or formation of 3 ascending Tops ; 1st Top was from the opening to 10.41 a.m., 2nd Top from 10.41 to 10.50 a.m., 3rd Top was from 10.50 to 11.06 a.m. A sell (short) position after the 3rd Top formation would incur profits to about 20 to 40 points.
An inverted formation of Head and Shoulder was also formed before lunch break. But the " pattern" was not clearly recognised, so the best thing to do was to stay away from the market. The Shoulder was clearly formed between 11.26 a.m. to 11.30 a.m., the head from 11.30 a.m. to 11.40 a.m. but the other shoulder was not clearly recognised.
After lunch , there was also a clear pattern of 3 Tops ; the 1st top was between 12.00 a.m. to 3.14; the 2nd top from 3.14 p.m. to 4.00 p.m and the other top from 4.00 to 4.30 p.m. So from this observation, I can say that there were 2 points of entry for today's market.
What about Wednesday?
Since today's market was a black bar, so I anticipate tomorrow will be bearish ( Please take note that tomorrow may end up a white bar but my strategy is to focus on after opening rather than the closing so whether the market ends up white or black bar makes no different to me);
1) Take position only if the market opens between 3426 to 3349. After opening, if the market moves up to about 11to 16 points, then place a sell here and don't forget to put a stop loss between 10 to 20 points after taking the position. If after opening the market moves up in a fast and sharp gradient, just be careful. If not sure, stay away.The best is, after opening, the market retraces down a little bit and then starts to move up slowly and steadily to reach at 11 to 16 points after opening, then put a sell position here . Any way do not forget your stop loss point.
2) If the market opens above 3426 and moves up passing 3438 to 3443 then the market may go up further.
3) If the market opens 3349 and below , the chances is that the market could move up further
4) Any way if you decide not to take any position after the opening of the market, then look for these clear formations ; 3Tops/Bottoms, 2 Tops/Bottoms, Head and Shoulder ( also inverted Head and Shoulder ) and Half Mountain trendlines. If there are no clear formation , just do nothing
5) As I mentioned earlier , this is only a prediction on the CPO market. I may be wrong! I have been wrong for quite a number of times. If in doubt please contact your broker.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Forecast For Tuesday
11 Feb 2008 ( 10.35 p.m.- Malaysia time zone )
Today the CPO market open at 3323 and closed at 3412 ( market opens at 10.30 a.m. and closes at 6.30 p.m.). The lowest is at 3323 and highest at 3417 ( 94 points). So the forecast for tomorrow ( 12 Feb ) is as follows ;
1) This forecast is based on the opening of the market because I believe that the opening is influenced by the price of soybean
oil (CBOT) and also the price of crude oil which were traded the night before.
2) In short term, the market is said to be bullish, so we anticipate that the market tomorrow should also be bullish. Take position
only If the market opens between 3442 to 3340.Within a short period after opening and the market retraces down to about 15
to 20 points from opening, then a buy position can be placed here and a stop loss of about 10 to 15 points should be also
placed in order to cut loss should the market goes against you. If you make a profit of 10 to 20 points, just sell. If you are an
experience trader you can possibly decide the right point to let off your position. If after opening, the market retraces sharply
down, just be careful, the market may not be what you expect, it may go further down and you may have to cut loss. The best
buy is, after opening, the market goes up a little bit and later starts retracing down constantly to about 15 to 20 points and at
this point, a buy position can be placed.
Today the CPO market open at 3323 and closed at 3412 ( market opens at 10.30 a.m. and closes at 6.30 p.m.). The lowest is at 3323 and highest at 3417 ( 94 points). So the forecast for tomorrow ( 12 Feb ) is as follows ;
1) This forecast is based on the opening of the market because I believe that the opening is influenced by the price of soybean
oil (CBOT) and also the price of crude oil which were traded the night before.
2) In short term, the market is said to be bullish, so we anticipate that the market tomorrow should also be bullish. Take position
only If the market opens between 3442 to 3340.Within a short period after opening and the market retraces down to about 15
to 20 points from opening, then a buy position can be placed here and a stop loss of about 10 to 15 points should be also
placed in order to cut loss should the market goes against you. If you make a profit of 10 to 20 points, just sell. If you are an
experience trader you can possibly decide the right point to let off your position. If after opening, the market retraces sharply
down, just be careful, the market may not be what you expect, it may go further down and you may have to cut loss. The best
buy is, after opening, the market goes up a little bit and later starts retracing down constantly to about 15 to 20 points and at
this point, a buy position can be placed.
3) If the market opens between 3339 to 3322, just be elert and if the market retraces further passing down yesterday's lowest
3317, the probability of further down could happen.
4) If the market opens at 3329 and below especially after passing yesterday's lowest between 3322 to 3317, then the market could
end in a black candle bar.( Can consider to sell here )
5) If the market opens above 3442, just be careful the market could end up being a black bar but if after opening above 3442 and
the market moves up passing 3449, then a new bullish record could be recorded.
6) If the above do not materialise and during the market being traded, any "clear" patern like 3 tops/down, head and
shoulder and 2 mountains occur, then a buy/sell position must not be missed.
Well, this is only a forecast and an opinion, I may be wrong. I have been wrong for quite a number of times.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Day Trading
7 Feb 2008
Day trading is a process of multiple buyings and sellings which are conducted within a day. These are done with the intention of maximizing the profits. Normally, the profits taken for each transaction are small but with multiple number of buyings and sellings, the profits gathered are bigger. In CPO, day trading can only be practised if the range of votality in a day is big and so is the volume. Usually if the range is above 25 points a day then day trading is said to be viable to be considered. If ,on average, the range is less than 25 points, it is advisable to bring forward the trading to the next day before any close position is to be undertaken.
Day trading is a process of multiple buyings and sellings which are conducted within a day. These are done with the intention of maximizing the profits. Normally, the profits taken for each transaction are small but with multiple number of buyings and sellings, the profits gathered are bigger. In CPO, day trading can only be practised if the range of votality in a day is big and so is the volume. Usually if the range is above 25 points a day then day trading is said to be viable to be considered. If ,on average, the range is less than 25 points, it is advisable to bring forward the trading to the next day before any close position is to be undertaken.
In my case, at the present situation where the price of CPO is among the highest ( The highest was on 5 Feb 2008 where it touched RM3458 ) in history, I would prefer to do day trading rather than bringing forward to the next day because it is less risky especially for a small investor like myself. Anyway if the votality is too high and voilent ( the price per tick is very vast between 5 to 10 points ), then I would prefer to stay away from the market.
In general, there are a few strategies that I use when it comes to day trading of CPO futures ;
1) I would figure out the short term trend of the market. The long term trend is not to be determined.
2) After determining the trend, then I would forecast the direction of the market. e.g. If the trend today is bearish ( after the
market closes ), then I would set the entry for tomorrow either to sell or buy based on opening of the day by using
my own devised strategy.
3) The opening is very important. As I have indicated in previous postings, the price of CPO has a close relation to the price of
soybean oil in US and also to the world's price of crude oil. So if the opening today is higher than the close of yesterday,
normally it has already indicated those factors.
4) During the trading of the day , I would only use 4 types of trendlines to execute my positions such as ; Head and Shoulder
Top or Bottom, Rounded Top or Bottom, Double/Triple Top or Bottom and Middle Cut Top or Bottom.
5) If the opening of the day is not within the forecasting range, then I would simply close the computer and take a day off
Since today ( 7 Feb ) and tomorrow is a bank holidays in Malaysia, the market will only open on this coming Monday ( 11 Feb ). After the closing of that day, I would make a price forecast for the next Tuesday! As I pin-pointed earlier, my forecasting is not always right, it tends to be wrong at times!
Friday, February 1, 2008
Trading Methodology
1 Feb 2008
The use of technical analysis is common among the futures traders. Unlike the stocks, there are two schools of thought when it comes to stocks trading ; fundamental analysis and technical analysis. In futures, fundamental analysis is almost non-existing. Technical analysis is a methodology to study and forecast the price movement of the commodities through the use of charts. The technical analyst make decision either to enter or exit the market by looking at the charts.This is done by appraising the trends of the past and present.Besides, there are also other methodologies in determining the future prices of the commodities such as; Moving Average, Japanese Candle Stick, Fibonacci Retracement Ratios, Oscilltors and Elliot Waves.
My experience in futures market especially the CPO futures, indicates that there is no specific technical analysis that can be used to ensure maximum profits. The combination of one or more technical analysis is more promising. As for me, I am using Japanese Candle Sticks ( with improvisation), trendlines and my own devised strategy. In normal circumtances, you can only devise your own trading plan after fully understood and after being in the market for quite sometime.
My forecasting of the CPO prices will be elaborated further in the coming issues. One point to ponder, whatever trading plan that you use, it will not gurantee that you will be making profits on every entrance of the market. There are times when your entrance is not profitable. In a month if you have 10 positions entered and at least 6 of them generate profits, then your are on the right to success!
Further readings ;
http://www.tssupport.com/
http://www.barchart.com/
http://www.chartpatterns.com/
http://www.candlesticksforum.com/
http://www.fxwords.com/
http://www.candlesticker.com/
Having done your mock trading, the next step is to do the actual trading. There are many futures trading tools which are available in the market. Some of these trading tools can be learnt from books or by attending short courses conducted by investment companies or organisations.There are also some on-self softwares or applications which can be purchased and be installed in computer.Any way, from my experience, these apllications are no gurantee that you will be making "huge profits in a day of trading" as promised by some of the software producers. Some are good to be true. The use of human brain's capacity in analysing the strategies of entering and existing of the market is more prominent.The dependence solely on the softwares and follow it religiously may end you in the depleting of the deposits in your account.
The use of technical analysis is common among the futures traders. Unlike the stocks, there are two schools of thought when it comes to stocks trading ; fundamental analysis and technical analysis. In futures, fundamental analysis is almost non-existing. Technical analysis is a methodology to study and forecast the price movement of the commodities through the use of charts. The technical analyst make decision either to enter or exit the market by looking at the charts.This is done by appraising the trends of the past and present.Besides, there are also other methodologies in determining the future prices of the commodities such as; Moving Average, Japanese Candle Stick, Fibonacci Retracement Ratios, Oscilltors and Elliot Waves.
My experience in futures market especially the CPO futures, indicates that there is no specific technical analysis that can be used to ensure maximum profits. The combination of one or more technical analysis is more promising. As for me, I am using Japanese Candle Sticks ( with improvisation), trendlines and my own devised strategy. In normal circumtances, you can only devise your own trading plan after fully understood and after being in the market for quite sometime.
My forecasting of the CPO prices will be elaborated further in the coming issues. One point to ponder, whatever trading plan that you use, it will not gurantee that you will be making profits on every entrance of the market. There are times when your entrance is not profitable. In a month if you have 10 positions entered and at least 6 of them generate profits, then your are on the right to success!
Further readings ;
http://www.tssupport.com/
http://www.barchart.com/
http://www.chartpatterns.com/
http://www.candlesticksforum.com/
http://www.fxwords.com/
http://www.candlesticker.com/
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